{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260831", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "4-0", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1012, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0529, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.098 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.0836 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0711 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0674 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0084, "0-1": 0.0055, "0-2": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.0344, "1-1": 0.023, "1-2": 0.0076, "1-3": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0711, "2-1": 0.0474, "2-2": 0.0158, "2-3": 0.0035, "2-4": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.098, "3-1": 0.0652, "3-2": 0.0217, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.1012, "4-1": 0.0674, "4-2": 0.0224, "4-3": 0.005, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0836, "5-1": 0.0557, "5-2": 0.0185, "5-3": 0.0041, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0576, "6-1": 0.0383, "6-2": 0.0128, "6-3": 0.0028, "7-0": 0.034, "7-1": 0.0226, "7-2": 0.0075, "7-3": 0.0017, "8-0": 0.0175, "8-1": 0.0117, "8-2": 0.0039, "8-3": 0.0009, "9-0": 0.008, "9-1": 0.0054, "9-2": 0.0018 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.9244, "draw": 0.0529, "away_win": 0.0227 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8557, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1443, "btts_yes": 0.4784, "btts_no": 0.5216, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5138, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0162 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 90.2, "MCR": 95.65, "ATR": 89.22, "GK": 90.3 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.7, "MCR": 81.84, "ATR": 83.73, "GK": 85.95 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Karim Adeyemi (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~56% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.20, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.95, "home_lambda": 4.131, "away_lambda": 0.666 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.9244, "draw": 0.0529, "away_win": 0.0227 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9244, "fair_spread": 3.465, "fair_total": 4.797, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 4.131, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 0.666, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8557, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4784, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5138, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0162, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Karim Adeyemi (Barcelona)", "estimate": 1.3418, "probability": 0.7143, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jorge de Frutos (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1293, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.2979, "probability": 0.1814, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1393, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.797, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 717, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.0, "possession_home_pct": 55.9, "possession_away_pct": 44.1, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9244, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +3.46 goals and fair total 4.80.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Rayo Vallecano must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Karim Adeyemi against Andrei Rațiu, Marash Kumbulla in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Karim Adeyemi (2); bench watchlist: Ferran Torres, Marcus Rashford.", "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ilias Akhomach, Carlos Martín, Randy Nteka.", "Assist usage should flow through Raphinha; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 2.40 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Rayo Vallecano is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Rayo Vallecano wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Joan García": { "player_id": 930267, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2478, "rating": 90.2979, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.0927, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 3, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 5.4633, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos, Pedro Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23 19:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1397 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.7889 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632085, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.1672 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631368, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7449 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631347, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0031 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 329, "combined_rank_score": 195.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 137.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.34, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 254.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2979, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Wesley Ribeiro", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Andrés Gómez", "ranking": 328 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro Barreal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Isidro Pitta", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahima Konaté", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Carrillo", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Ognjen Ugrešić", "ranking": 334 } ] } } }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "player_id": 1402913, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 94000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 90.1214, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 80, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 46, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 94, "possession_lost": 4.6591, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.243, "expected_assists": 0.067, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1117, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 148, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0936, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813005, "match_date": "2026-07-19 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Argentina", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813008, "match_date": "2026-07-14", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812994, "match_date": "2026-07-10", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Belgium", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.2719, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 91, "accurate_pass": 89, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812990, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813004, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Austria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186841, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1242, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 84, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186840, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Saudi Arabia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 99, "accurate_pass": 98, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186783, "match_date": 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"team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.246, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 5.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9177, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, 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"ranking": 19679 }, { "player_name": "Frank Castañeda", "ranking": 19680 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Valle", "ranking": 19681 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ermal Krasniqi", "ranking": 19683 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Bolin", "ranking": 19684 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Musaba", "ranking": 19685 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Peña Biafore", "ranking": 19686 }, { "player_name": "Risto Radunović", "ranking": 19687 } ] } } }, "Carlos Martín": { "player_id": 1131581, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 76.3357, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.446, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "expected_assists": 0.069, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 38, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20326, "combined_rank_score": 3456.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1073.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.38, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 5839.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3357, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Martín", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Felipe Zenobio", "ranking": 20321 }, { "player_name": "Japhet Tanganga", "ranking": 20322 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Woo Yeong", "ranking": 20323 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Senaya", "ranking": 20324 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Young", "ranking": 20325 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pathé Mboup", "ranking": 20327 }, { "player_name": "Obed Vargas", "ranking": 20328 }, { "player_name": "Taras Mykhavko", "ranking": 20329 }, { "player_name": "Sven Michel", "ranking": 20330 }, { "player_name": "Akor Jerome Adams", "ranking": 20331 } ] } } }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "player_id": 1089108, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 175, "market_value": 11100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "rating": 80.872, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.446, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18212, "combined_rank_score": 1858.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 854.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.645, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 2862.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.872, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilias Akhomach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tomi Horvat", "ranking": 18207 }, { "player_name": "Vinícius Lopes", "ranking": 18208 }, { "player_name": "Chuba Akpom", "ranking": 18209 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Di Yorio", "ranking": 18210 }, { "player_name": "Emin Bayram", "ranking": 18211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tyler Dibling", "ranking": 18213 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Costa", "ranking": 18214 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Quintana", "ranking": 18215 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 18216 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Gianniotis", "ranking": 18217 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.67, "expected_assists": 0.42, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 287, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 83.24, "possession_estimated_pct": 44.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.678, "xg_contribution": 0.1749, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.322 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (LWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Giorgi Tsitaishvili in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.65, "xg_contribution": 0.2244, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.35 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "xg_contribution": 0.3534, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.36 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.353 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.645, "xg_contribution": 0.0704, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isi Palazón", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.355 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (RWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Isi Palazón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.516, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "xg_contribution": 0.0033, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 }, { "player": "Marash Kumbulla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrei Rațiu and Marash Kumbulla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.003 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.516, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "xg_contribution": 0.37, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707 }, { "player": "Marash Kumbulla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrei Rațiu and Marash Kumbulla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.370 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "xg_contribution": 0.0492, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Olmo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dani Olmo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "xg_contribution": 0.0713, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 103000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €103M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.0785, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 103000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €103M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0291, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lamine Yamal", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 237000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lamine Yamal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €237M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.245, "xg_contribution": 0.086, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €94M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "xg_contribution": 0.0736, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €94M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0594, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Jules Koundé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €79M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.93, "away_midfield_power": 0.46, "home_creative_power": 1.008, "away_creative_power": 0.435, "home_defensive_power": 1.028, "away_defensive_power": 0.371, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.669, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Raphinha", "Dani Olmo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Isi Palazón", "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "Unai López" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 55.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 44.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 10.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 3.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.07, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.934 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 4.131, "away_lambda": 0.666, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello", "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alejandro Balde": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Raphinha", "Fermín López", "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marash Kumbulla": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Augusto Batalla": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Luiz Felipe": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~56% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.20, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0839, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.082, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0047, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8721, "home_midfield_factor": 1.07, "away_midfield_factor": 0.934, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8662, "away_avg_quality": 0.4627, "avg_quality_gap": 0.4035, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.7609, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.6593, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.9468, "elite_count_gap": 10, "combined_quality_gap": 0.8715, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0451, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0716, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.8715, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.2229, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9228, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.378, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.722, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.3781, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7216, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 4.131, "final_away_lambda": 0.666 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0902, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.254, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9369, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-31T13:30:40Z" }