{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Liverpool", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260904", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1068, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Liverpool", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1816, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1068 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0972 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0925 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0849 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0818 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0408, "0-1": 0.0925, "0-2": 0.1068, "0-3": 0.0818, "0-4": 0.047, "0-5": 0.0216, "0-6": 0.0083, "0-7": 0.0027, "0-8": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0364, "1-1": 0.0849, "1-2": 0.0972, "1-3": 0.0745, "1-4": 0.0428, "1-5": 0.0197, "1-6": 0.0075, "1-7": 0.0025, "1-8": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0167, "2-1": 0.0385, "2-2": 0.0442, "2-3": 0.0339, "2-4": 0.0195, "2-5": 0.009, "2-6": 0.0034, "2-7": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0051, "3-1": 0.0117, "3-2": 0.0134, "3-3": 0.0103, "3-4": 0.0059, "3-5": 0.0027, "3-6": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0012, "4-1": 0.0027, "4-2": 0.0031, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0013, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1332, "draw": 0.1816, "away_win": 0.6852 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6219, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3781, "btts_yes": 0.5379, "btts_no": 0.4621, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1004, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4025 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.03, "MCR": 7.18, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.22, "MCR": 7.78, "ATR": 7.66, "GK": 7.18 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitiké", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 1.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 0.91, "away_lambda": 2.299 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1332, "draw": 0.1816, "away_win": 0.6852 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6852, "fair_spread": -1.389, "fair_total": 3.209, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 0.91, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 2.299, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6219, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5379, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1004, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4025, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Daizen Maeda (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1793, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alexander Isak (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.3985, "probability": 0.3753, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Clarke (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1284, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.217, "probability": 0.2331, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.209, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 939, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.4, "possession_home_pct": 47.0, "possession_away_pct": 53.0, "notes": "Liverpool projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6852, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.39 goals and fair total 3.21.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against Leif Davis, Dara O'Shea in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Liverpool projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Florentino Luís, Emersonn, Chuba Akpom.", "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitiké; bench watchlist: Víctor Muñoz, Rio Ngumoha.", "Assist usage should flow through Cody Gakpo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.60 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ipswich": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Kjell Scherpen": { "player_id": 852394, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 205, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 34, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.997, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 6.4904, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "shots_faced": 6.0, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitiké", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Ipswich", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15858574, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "away_team": "RSC Anderlecht", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Royale Union Saint-Gilloise", "opponent": "RSC Anderlecht", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0552 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858595, 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"league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20959, "combined_rank_score": 3967.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 388.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9737, "sofascore_appearances": 19.0, "fifa_rank": 7547.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8367, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Romero", "ranking": 20954 }, { "player_name": "Osman Bukari", "ranking": 20955 }, { "player_name": "Michael Estrada", "ranking": 20956 }, { "player_name": "Derensili Sanches Fernandes", "ranking": 20957 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Thiaré", "ranking": 20958 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1496, "expected_assists": 0.5793, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 23118, "combined_rank_score": 5896.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 571.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8382, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 11221.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tobias Salquist", "ranking": 23113 }, { "player_name": "Will Wright", "ranking": 23114 }, { "player_name": "Dante Polvara", "ranking": 23115 }, { "player_name": "Liam Donnelly", "ranking": 23116 }, { "player_name": "Oumar Ngom", "ranking": 23117 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sami Lahssaini", "ranking": 23119 }, { "player_name": "Bryang Kayo", "ranking": 23120 }, { "player_name": "Yeison Murillo", "ranking": 23121 }, { "player_name": "Thibaud Verlinden", "ranking": 23122 }, { "player_name": "Ştefan Bodişteanu", "ranking": 23123 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 }, "Rio Ngumoha": { "player_id": 1881902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 73, "height": 170, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8367, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.0902, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0467, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23 15:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Liverpool", "opponent": "Newcastle", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1255, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.116, "expected_assists": 0.1162, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "expected_assists": 0.037, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631369, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Galatasaray", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20959, "combined_rank_score": 3967.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 388.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9737, "sofascore_appearances": 19.0, "fifa_rank": 7547.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8367, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Romero", "ranking": 20954 }, { "player_name": "Osman Bukari", "ranking": 20955 }, { "player_name": "Michael Estrada", "ranking": 20956 }, { "player_name": "Derensili Sanches Fernandes", "ranking": 20957 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Thiaré", "ranking": 20958 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Claudio Bravo", "ranking": 20960 }, { "player_name": "Welington", "ranking": 20961 }, { "player_name": "Edwin Cerrillo", "ranking": 20962 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Pinto", "ranking": 20963 }, { "player_name": "Luis Ingolotti", "ranking": 20964 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.3, "expected_assists": 1.28, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 453, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 22, "avg_rating": 7.55, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 10.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.0915, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "xg_contribution": 0.1581, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cody Gakpo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cody Gakpo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.305, "xg_contribution": 0.0911, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cody Gakpo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cody Gakpo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 15900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.589, "defenders": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.0855, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Wirtz", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 95000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sindre Walle Egeli (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Florian Wirtz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €95M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Anis Mehmeti", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1792, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremie Frimpong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anis Mehmeti (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Jeremie Frimpong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.179 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2378, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremie Frimpong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Jeremie Frimpong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.238 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 95000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "xg_contribution": 0.2109, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (LWB) is slightly favored against Sindre Walle Egeli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€95M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.211 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Jack Clarke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.597, "xg_contribution": 0.1845, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Clarke", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.403 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CM) is slightly favored against Jack Clarke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 91000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Jack Clarke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.586, "xg_contribution": 0.2282, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Clarke", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.414 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominik Szoboszlai (CM) is slightly favored against Jack Clarke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€91M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.517, "xg_contribution": 0.1314, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.483 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (RWB) is slightly favored against Jaden Philogene-Bidace in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.621, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.3107, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Leif Davis and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.311 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Ekitiké", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.621, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.336, "xg_contribution": 0.2611, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.664 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.664 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Ekitiké (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Leif Davis and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.682, "away_midfield_power": 0.929, "home_creative_power": 0.726, "away_creative_power": 1.008, "home_defensive_power": 0.579, "away_defensive_power": 1.016, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.423, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Julio Enciso", "Jack Clarke", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Cody Gakpo" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 10.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.971, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.036 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.91, "away_lambda": 2.299, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sindre Walle Egeli": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anis Mehmeti": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jack Clarke": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Hugo Ekitiké" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Hugo Ekitiké" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Hugo Ekitiké" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jack Clarke" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Sindre Walle Egeli", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremie Frimpong": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 1.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.987, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1087, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8902, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9507, "home_midfield_factor": 0.971, "away_midfield_factor": 1.036, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6088, "away_avg_quality": 0.8524, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2436, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.3247, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.3529, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.4417, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5102, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2806, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1633, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1137, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1094, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.5102, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1326, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.959, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.949, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.03, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9487, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.0304, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.91, "final_away_lambda": 2.299 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-04T13:31:12Z" }