{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260904", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1021, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1179, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1021 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1021 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0804 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0804 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0765 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0229, "0-1": 0.0679, "0-2": 0.1021, "0-3": 0.1021, "0-4": 0.0765, "0-5": 0.0459, "0-6": 0.0229, "0-7": 0.0098, "0-8": 0.0037, "0-9": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0177, "1-1": 0.0538, "1-2": 0.0804, "1-3": 0.0804, "1-4": 0.0602, "1-5": 0.0361, "1-6": 0.0181, "1-7": 0.0077, "1-8": 0.0029, "1-9": 0.001, "2-0": 0.007, "2-1": 0.0211, "2-2": 0.0316, "2-3": 0.0316, "2-4": 0.0237, "2-5": 0.0142, "2-6": 0.0071, "2-7": 0.003, "2-8": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0018, "3-1": 0.0055, "3-2": 0.0083, "3-3": 0.0083, "3-4": 0.0062, "3-5": 0.0037, "3-6": 0.0019, "3-7": 0.0008, "4-1": 0.0011, "4-2": 0.0016, "4-3": 0.0016, "4-4": 0.0012, "4-5": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0673, "draw": 0.1179, "away_win": 0.8148 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7285, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2715, "btts_yes": 0.5178, "btts_no": 0.4822, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4552 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.23, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 6.89 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.47, "MCR": 7.81, "ATR": 8.17, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 0.787, "away_lambda": 2.999 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0673, "draw": 0.1179, "away_win": 0.8148 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8148, "fair_spread": -2.212, "fair_total": 3.786, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 0.787, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 2.999, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7285, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5178, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4552, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cucho Hernández (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1541, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.6786, "probability": 0.3353, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1667, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2436, "probability": 0.0702, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.786, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 865, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 46.3, "possession_away_pct": 53.7, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8148, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.21 goals and fair total 3.79.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Vinícius Júnior against Natan in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sergi Altimira, Gonzalo Petit, Chimy Ávila.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Rodrygo, Franco Mastantuono.", "Assist usage should flow through Arda Güler; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.89 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Álvaro Valles": { "player_id": 964983, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8939, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 8.4504, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "expected_saves": 3.78, "high_pressure_saves": 1.44, "shots_faced": 8.1, "opponent_faced": "Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -1.0184 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 15009 }, { "player_name": "Park Jae-Hwan", "ranking": 15010 }, { "player_name": "Loïs Openda", "ranking": 15011 }, { "player_name": "Alistair Johnston", "ranking": 15012 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 15013 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Idrissa Gana Gueye", "ranking": 15015 }, { "player_name": "Berat Djimsiti", "ranking": 15016 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 15017 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 15018 }, { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 15019 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 }, "Natan": { "player_id": 1015287, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1032, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 4.4025, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Vinícius Júnior", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 43, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, 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"ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 831.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6606, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 1269.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1032, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Natan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eder Garcia", "ranking": 16734 }, { "player_name": "Juan Arango", "ranking": 16735 }, { "player_name": "Anaru Cassidy", "ranking": 16736 }, { "player_name": "Zakhar Volkov", "ranking": 16737 }, { "player_name": "Joel Drakes-Thomas", "ranking": 16738 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alan Robledo", "ranking": 16740 }, { "player_name": "Yong-hwan Kim", "ranking": 16741 }, { "player_name": "Ferhat Sağlam", "ranking": 16742 }, { "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking": 16743 }, { "player_name": "James Ward-Prowse", "ranking": 16744 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1862, "expected_assists": 0.2674, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886366, "match_date": "2024-06-25", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Costa Rica", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Costa Rica", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4185, "expected_assists": 0.2768, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 5, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 258, "combined_rank_score": 171.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 190.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.22, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 152.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2091, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrygo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luis Sinisterra", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Adrien Rabiot", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 256 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Pavard", "ranking": 257 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Abdulay Juma Bah", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Luca Meirelles", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 262 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Viveros", "ranking": 263 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 }, "Franco Mastantuono": { "player_id": 1403559, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 177, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.0331, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9117, "minutes": 27, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6187, "dispossessed": 2.1801, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1805, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2965, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631329, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15452752, "match_date": "2026-02-25", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Benfica", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Benfica", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169218, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169215, "match_date": "2025-09-04", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856223, "match_date": "2025-06-06", "home_team": "Chile", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17177, "combined_rank_score": 1124.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.687, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1456.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9117, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Franco Mastantuono", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Philipp Sander", "ranking": 17172 }, { "player_name": "Quilindschy Hartman", "ranking": 17173 }, { "player_name": "Maxim Cojocaru", "ranking": 17174 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 17175 }, { "player_name": "Eric Veiga", "ranking": 17176 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Enner Valencia", "ranking": 17178 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Reis", "ranking": 17179 }, { "player_name": "Tim Weah", "ranking": 17180 }, { "player_name": "Jack Butland", "ranking": 17181 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 17182 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 3.0, "expected_assists": 1.45, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 15, "total_passes": 488, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 7.75, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nelson Deossa", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.271, "xg_contribution": 0.0601, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.729 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nelson Deossa (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Federico Valverde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €87M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.899, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.1328, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jude Bellingham", "role": "CM", "market_value": 151000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jude Bellingham in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €151M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.899, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "xg_contribution": 0.1784, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jude Bellingham", "role": "CM", "market_value": 151000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jude Bellingham in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €151M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Arda Güler" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arda Güler", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Arda Güler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €87M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Troy Parrott", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1597, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Troy Parrott (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Marc Cucurella in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2229, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Marc Cucurella in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Pablo García" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.598, "xg_contribution": 0.2302, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo García", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.402 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LWB) is slightly favored against Pablo García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.668, "xg_contribution": 0.1955, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.332 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.657, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.343 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Nelson Deossa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.52, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "xg_contribution": 0.2084, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nelson Deossa", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 9800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.431 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (RWB) is slightly favored against Nelson Deossa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.4313, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (SS) is evenly matched against Natan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.431 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 99000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.2901, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (SS) is slightly favored against Natan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€99M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.290 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.611, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.3585, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 }, { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Valentín Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.359 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.667, "away_midfield_power": 0.912, "home_creative_power": 0.678, "away_creative_power": 1.025, "home_defensive_power": 0.442, "away_defensive_power": 1.006, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.422, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Nelson Deossa", "Pablo Fornals", "Pablo García" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 3.7, "key_personal_duel": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.969, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.045 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.787, "away_lambda": 2.999, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nelson Deossa": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Troy Parrott": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Marc Cucurella" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Marc Cucurella" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Valentín Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Nelson Deossa" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Pablo Fornals", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Pablo García", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Trent Alexander-Arnold": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0719, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.176, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8778, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9733, "home_midfield_factor": 0.969, "away_midfield_factor": 1.045, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6075, "away_avg_quality": 0.8819, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2745, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.6515, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.5116, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.7135, "elite_count_gap": -9, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5862, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3224, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1876, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0603, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0726, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.5862, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1516, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9514, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.827, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.604, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8273, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.6036, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.787, "final_away_lambda": 2.999 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-04T13:30:50Z" }