{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1225, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2575, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1225 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1147 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0933 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0889 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0781 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0763, "0-1": 0.1147, "0-2": 0.0889, "0-3": 0.0455, "0-4": 0.0175, "0-5": 0.0054, "0-6": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.0781, "1-1": 0.1225, "1-2": 0.0933, "1-3": 0.0478, "1-4": 0.0183, "1-5": 0.0056, "1-6": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0415, "2-1": 0.0638, "2-2": 0.049, "2-3": 0.0251, "2-4": 0.0096, "2-5": 0.003, "2-6": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0145, "3-1": 0.0223, "3-2": 0.0171, "3-3": 0.0088, "3-4": 0.0034, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0038, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0045, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2583, "draw": 0.2575, "away_win": 0.4842 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.478, "under_2_5_goals": 0.522, "btts_yes": 0.5111, "btts_no": 0.4889, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2152, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.88, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 7.25 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.17, "MCR": 7.49, "ATR": 7.14, "GK": 7.37 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Oli McBurnie, Ollie Watkins", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.536 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2583, "draw": 0.2575, "away_win": 0.4842 }, "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4842, "fair_spread": -0.486, "fair_total": 2.586, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.536, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.478, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5111, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2152, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oli McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2386, "probability": 0.3268, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.2947, "probability": 0.0986, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Joe Gelhardt (Hull)", "estimate": 0.157, "probability": 0.217, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Boubacar Kamara (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.201, "probability": 0.2769, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.586, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 898, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.1, "possession_home_pct": 46.6, "possession_away_pct": 53.4, "notes": "Aston Villa projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4842, "script": "Aston Villa is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.49 goals and fair total 2.59.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Aston Villa lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Ollie Watkins against Lucas Herrington, Nobel Mendy in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Aston Villa projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Oli McBurnie; bench watchlist: Lucas Gourna-Douath, David Akintola.", "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Ollie Watkins; bench watchlist: Morgan Rogers, Tammy Abraham, Brian Madjo.", "Assist usage should flow through Joe Gelhardt, Boubacar Kamara; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Aston Villa tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.29 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Aston Villa.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Hull": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "player_id": 953414, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 88, "height": 193, "market_value": 17200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.2492, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 38, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 1, 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"away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Hull", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15866926, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "AEK Athens", "away_team": "Olympiacos FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Olympiacos FC", "opponent": "AEK Athens", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1544 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stoiximan Super League", "league_id": "185", "league_slug": "stoiximan-super-league", "league_country": "Greece", "season_id": "78175", "season_name": "Super League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, 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"challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.64, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Madjo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 }, "Morgan Rogers": { "player_id": 948261, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 187, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "rating": 7.4871, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.915, "dispossessed": 1.537, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2935, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.138, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.578, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.64, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813003, "match_date": "2026-07-18", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.3683, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813007, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "England", "opponent": "Mexico", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186676, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186672, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "England", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2986, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15632626, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3998, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.2656, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1414, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 9470, "combined_rank_score": 445.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 559.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8459, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 332.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4871, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hassan Naeem", "ranking": 9465 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Peñalba", "ranking": 9466 }, { "player_name": "Min-jae Park", "ranking": 9467 }, { "player_name": "Júnior Padilla", "ranking": 9468 }, { "player_name": "Ibañez", "ranking": 9469 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mario Hermoso", "ranking": 9471 }, { "player_name": "Jaloliddin Jumaboyev", "ranking": 9472 }, { "player_name": "Predrag Rajković", "ranking": 9473 }, { "player_name": "Valentino Murataj", "ranking": 9474 }, { "player_name": "David Bruno", "ranking": 9475 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 15 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.54, "expected_assists": 0.76, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 406, "interceptions": 16, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 7.3, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9600000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.518, "defenders": [ "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.0924, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "role": "RB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl (LW) is evenly matched against Matteo Ruggeri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.302, "xg_contribution": 0.0709, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Joe Gelhardt", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 15000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.579, "defenders": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.267, "xg_contribution": 0.078, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amadou Onana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Gelhardt (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amadou Onana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oli McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Pau Torres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.671, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1528, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Torres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oli McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ian Maatsen and Pau Torres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.153 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Stroud", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.233, "xg_contribution": 0.0559, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amadou Onana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.767 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Stroud (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Amadou Onana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ollie Watkins", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Nobel Mendy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.502, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.2687, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ollie Watkins (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lucas Herrington and Nobel Mendy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.269 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Charlie Hughes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.512, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.61, "xg_contribution": 0.2397, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Charlie Hughes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 9100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.39 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LM) has a clear attacking advantage against Charlie Hughes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.589, "xg_contribution": 0.1607, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Giles", "role": "LB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.411 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (RM) is slightly favored against Ryan Giles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amadou Onana", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.617, "xg_contribution": 0.0744, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Stroud", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.383 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amadou Onana (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Elliot Stroud in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.563, "away_midfield_power": 0.823, "home_creative_power": 0.53, "away_creative_power": 0.854, "home_defensive_power": 0.423, "away_defensive_power": 0.77, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.406, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Joe Gelhardt", "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "Elliot Stroud", "Hidemasa Morita", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Amadou Onana", "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.966, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.044 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.536, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jens Hjertø-Dahl": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Ruggeri", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Ezri Konsa", "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joe Gelhardt": { "opponents": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oli McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Pau Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Amadou Onana", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "Ollie Watkins" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Ollie Watkins" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Charlie Hughes": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hidemasa Morita": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Garnacho", "Ollie Watkins" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matteo Ruggeri": { "opponents": [ "Jens Hjertø-Dahl" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amadou Onana": { "opponents": [ "Joe Gelhardt", "Elliot Stroud", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Torres": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ollie Watkins": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Nobel Mendy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Charlie Hughes", "Hidemasa Morita" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Jens Hjertø-Dahl" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie", "Joe Gelhardt" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alejandro Garnacho": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Charlie Hughes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Joe Gelhardt vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9429, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.113, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1425, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9152, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9709, "home_midfield_factor": 0.966, "away_midfield_factor": 1.044, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5078, "away_avg_quality": 0.7413, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2335, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.3339, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.3477, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.3984, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.439, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2415, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1405, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0676, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0886, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.439, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1148, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9661, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.75, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.378, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.725, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.536, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7496, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3776, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.536 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:31:49Z" }