{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1246, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2627, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1246 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1202 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0901 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0825 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0825, "0-1": 0.0821, "0-2": 0.0424, "0-3": 0.0144, "0-4": 0.0037, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1202, "1-1": 0.1246, "1-2": 0.0631, "1-3": 0.0214, "1-4": 0.0055, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0901, "2-1": 0.0919, "2-2": 0.0469, "2-3": 0.0159, "2-4": 0.0041, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0447, "3-1": 0.0456, "3-2": 0.0232, "3-3": 0.0079, "3-4": 0.002, "4-0": 0.0166, "4-1": 0.0169, "4-2": 0.0086, "4-3": 0.0029, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0049, "5-1": 0.005, "5-2": 0.0026, "5-3": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0012, "6-1": 0.0012, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4787, "draw": 0.2627, "away_win": 0.2585 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.458, "under_2_5_goals": 0.542, "btts_yes": 0.4959, "btts_no": 0.5041, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2261 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.33, "MCR": 7.4, "ATR": 7.42, "GK": 7.15 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.2, "MCR": 7.42, "ATR": 7.36, "GK": 7.36 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Anthony Elanga, Eli Junior Kroupi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.6, "home_lambda": 1.487, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4787, "draw": 0.2627, "away_win": 0.2585 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4787, "fair_spread": 0.467, "fair_total": 2.507, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.487, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.458, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4959, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2261, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.3767, "probability": 0.2512, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "António Silva (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.335, "probability": 0.0698, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lewis Miley (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.183, "probability": 0.2509, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Justin Kluivert (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.177, "probability": 0.2607, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.507, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 893, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.3, "possession_away_pct": 49.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4787, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.47 goals and fair total 2.51.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Newcastle chance creation leans on Harvey Barnes against Bafodé Diakité in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Anthony Elanga; bench watchlist: Bruno Guimarães, Anthony Gordon, Yoane Wissa.", "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Eli Junior Kroupi; bench watchlist: Marcus Tavernier, Amine Adli, Álvaro Rodriguez.", "Assist usage should flow through Lewis Miley, Justin Kluivert; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.25 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Newcastle": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Lukáš Horníček": { "player_id": 963744, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 194, "market_value": 16900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1506, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 2.0597, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1904, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "expected_saves": 1.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.44, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "Eli Junior Kroupi, Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23 15:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Newcastle", "opponent": "Liverpool", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14336204, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "CF Estrela Amadora", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "CF Estrela Amadora", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.425 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288898, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Benfica", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "Benfica", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.8406 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632624, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.2291 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14288888, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "Estoril Praia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "Estoril Praia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.0653 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga Portugal Betclic", "league_id": "238", "league_slug": "liga-portugal-betclic", "league_country": "Portugal", "season_id": "77806", "season_name": "Liga Portugal 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632622, "match_date": "2026-04-30", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0622 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632618, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0547 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632614, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sporting Braga", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 29, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.3682 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631839, "match_date": 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Nordfeldt", "ranking": 18512 }, { "player_name": "Darlin Yongwa", "ranking": 18513 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 18514 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Morris", "ranking": 18516 }, { "player_name": "Nawaf Al-Aqidi", "ranking": 18517 }, { "player_name": "Victor Kristiansen", "ranking": 18518 }, { "player_name": "Karim Konaté", "ranking": 18519 }, { "player_name": "Manu Silva", "ranking": 18520 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 9 }, "Tino Livramento": { "player_id": 980634, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2325, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, 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"aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21730, "combined_rank_score": 4623.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 470.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9088, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 8777.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.62, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jin Kyu", "ranking": 21725 }, { "player_name": "Bruninho", "ranking": 21726 }, { "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking": 21727 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Pérez Vinlöf", "ranking": 21728 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Córdova", "ranking": 21729 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mateo Pellegrino", "ranking": 21731 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Schmid", "ranking": 21732 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 21733 }, { "player_name": "Bilal Bafdili", "ranking": 21734 }, { "player_name": "Ime Okon", "ranking": 21735 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3 }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "player_id": 895576, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 178, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0073, "rating": 7.0591, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.637, "dispossessed": 2.6196, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.56, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Man City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Man City", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2424, "expected_assists": 0.1501, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.5403, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2163, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17226, "combined_rank_score": 1151.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 631.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1671.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0591, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 17221 }, { "player_name": "Souffian El Karouani", "ranking": 17222 }, { "player_name": "Vincent Sierro", "ranking": 17223 }, { "player_name": "Justin Bijlow", "ranking": 17224 }, { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 17225 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Julian Weigl", "ranking": 17227 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Stuani", "ranking": 17228 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montero", "ranking": 17229 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Eğribayat", "ranking": 17230 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 17231 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 484, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 7.33, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Bafodé Diakité" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.3889, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bafodé Diakité", "role": "RB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (LW) is slightly favored against Bafodé Diakité in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.389 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Elanga", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.3348, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "LB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Elanga (RW) is evenly matched against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.335 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nick Woltemade", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 59000000, "attacker_height": 198, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.85, "defenders": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.681, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "xg_contribution": 0.2281, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.674 }, { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.674 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nick Woltemade (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against James Hill and António Silva in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€59M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jacob Ramsey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.374, "xg_contribution": 0.0634, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.626 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jacob Ramsey (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bazoumana Touré", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.1723, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bazoumana Touré (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Tino Livramento" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.793, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "xg_contribution": 0.2654, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 }, { "player": "Tino Livramento", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eli Junior Kroupi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Malick Thiaw and Tino Livramento in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.265 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.138, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (LM) is evenly matched against Sven Botman in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €33M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.1074, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "LB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Jacob Ramsey", "Bazoumana Touré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.0427, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jacob Ramsey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "Bazoumana Touré", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jacob Ramsey and Bazoumana Touré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.756, "away_midfield_power": 0.784, "home_creative_power": 0.869, "away_creative_power": 0.733, "home_defensive_power": 0.872, "away_defensive_power": 0.739, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.491, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bazoumana Touré", "Jacob Ramsey", "Lewis Miley" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Rayan", "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams", "Justin Kluivert" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.004, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.487, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Bafodé Diakité" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anthony Elanga": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nick Woltemade": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jacob Ramsey": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bazoumana Touré": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tino Livramento": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson", "Eli Junior Kroupi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Bafodé Diakité": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Nick Woltemade" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Nick Woltemade" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "Jacob Ramsey", "Bazoumana Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Tino Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Jacob Ramsey" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Bazoumana Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Anthony Elanga" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Tino Livramento", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9442, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0817, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9062, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8919, "home_midfield_factor": 1.004, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7691, "away_avg_quality": 0.7373, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0318, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0616, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0567, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1151, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0412, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0686, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0772, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.487, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.835, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4866, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8352, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.487, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-04T21:31:43Z" }