{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1262, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2665, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1262 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1217 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0907 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0889 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0857 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0857, "0-1": 0.0853, "0-2": 0.044, "0-3": 0.015, "0-4": 0.0038, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1217, "1-1": 0.1262, "1-2": 0.0638, "1-3": 0.0217, "1-4": 0.0055, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0889, "2-1": 0.0907, "2-2": 0.0462, "2-3": 0.0157, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0429, "3-1": 0.0438, "3-2": 0.0223, "3-3": 0.0076, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0156, "4-1": 0.0159, "4-2": 0.0081, "4-3": 0.0028, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0045, "5-1": 0.0046, "5-2": 0.0023, "5-3": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4687, "draw": 0.2665, "away_win": 0.2648 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4482, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5518, "btts_yes": 0.4903, "btts_no": 0.5097, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2348 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.07, "MCR": 7.28, "ATR": 7.39, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 6.9 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Georges Mikautadze, Yeremay Hernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.58, "home_lambda": 1.449, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4687, "draw": 0.2665, "away_win": 0.2648 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4687, "fair_spread": 0.429, "fair_total": 2.469, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.449, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4482, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4903, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2348, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Renato Veiga (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.4318, "probability": 0.0644, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yeremay Hernández (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.2914, "probability": 0.3235, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.1691, "probability": 0.1899, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Mella (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.13, "probability": 0.2288, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.469, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 913, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.7, "possession_home_pct": 52.6, "possession_away_pct": 47.4, "notes": "Villarreal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4687, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.43 goals and fair total 2.47.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Georges Mikautadze against Giacomo Quagliata, Adrià Altimira in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Villarreal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Tani Oluwaseyi, Nicolas Pépé.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Yeremay Hernández; bench watchlist: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Zakaria Eddahchouri.", "Assist usage should flow through Ilias Akhomach, David Mella; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.23 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Luiz Júnior": { "player_id": 1066603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 12400000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0518, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 28, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "expected_saves": 1.77, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "shots_faced": 3.8, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández, Jonathan Asp Jensen", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23 15:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Atl. 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0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.0681, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.273, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24 19:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Deportivo", "opponent": "Málaga", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14061907, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Olympique de Marseille", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Olympique de Marseille", "opponent": "Stade Rennais", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1246, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5591, "combined_rank_score": 401.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 561.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4889, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Francisco Sorondo", "ranking": 5586 }, { "player_name": "Brian Leizza", "ranking": 5587 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Vazquez", "ranking": 5588 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Arena", "ranking": 5589 }, { "player_name": "Mojtaba Najarian", "ranking": 5590 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denis Genreau", "ranking": 5592 }, { "player_name": "Erald Maksuti", "ranking": 5593 }, { "player_name": "Irgi Kasalla", "ranking": 5594 }, { "player_name": "Rudi Požeg Vancaš", "ranking": 5595 }, { "player_name": "Edwin Rodríguez", "ranking": 5596 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 }, "Zakaria Eddahchouri": { "player_id": 979476, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 187, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2625, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.103, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 25085, "combined_rank_score": 7778.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 7778.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2625, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zakaria Eddahchouri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dimitrios Stamatakis", "ranking": 25080 }, { "player_name": "Blaž Kramer", "ranking": 25081 }, { "player_name": "Tim Schreiber", "ranking": 25082 }, { "player_name": "Luca Klimowicz", "ranking": 25083 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Herrera", "ranking": 25084 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Lama", "ranking": 25086 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Gabrielloni", "ranking": 25087 }, { "player_name": "Ali Emre Yanar", "ranking": 25088 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Seyral", "ranking": 25089 }, { "player_name": "Tom Vandenberghe", "ranking": 25090 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 462, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Carlos Romero", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "xg_contribution": 0.0757, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.441 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Romero (LWB) is slightly favored against Mario Soriano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Santiago Mouriño", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.532, "xg_contribution": 0.0964, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.468 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santiago Mouriño (RWB) is slightly favored against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.461, "xg_contribution": 0.1005, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (LM) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "David Mella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "xg_contribution": 0.1751, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Mella", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.397 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against David Mella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "David Mella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.624, "xg_contribution": 0.1307, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Mella", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.376 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against David Mella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.503, "xg_contribution": 0.1325, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (RM) is slightly favored against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Adrià Altimira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "xg_contribution": 0.339, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 }, { "player": "Adrià Altimira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Giacomo Quagliata and Adrià Altimira in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "xg_contribution": 0.041, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Santiago Mouriño in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "David Mella", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.0611, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Mella (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Angeliño", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.243, "xg_contribution": 0.0612, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 } ], "duel_analysis": "Angeliño (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.0576, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Romero", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Carlos Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.367, "xg_contribution": 0.2861, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.633 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Renato Veiga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 3900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.449, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.189, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Asp Jensen (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1463, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.701, "away_midfield_power": 0.492, "home_creative_power": 0.678, "away_creative_power": 0.465, "home_defensive_power": 0.566, "away_defensive_power": 0.407, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.588, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano", "David Mella", "Angeliño" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.037, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.974 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.449, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "David Mella", "Angeliño" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "David Mella", "Angeliño" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Adrià Altimira" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Jonathan Asp Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Logan Costa": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Romero", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Santiago Mouriño", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Ilias Akhomach", "Tajon Buchanan", "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Mella": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Altimira": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Angeliño": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Lorenzo Amatucci). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1577, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0215, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9256, "home_midfield_factor": 1.037, "away_midfield_factor": 0.974, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.659, "away_avg_quality": 0.4681, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1909, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.3602, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.2382, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9489, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3543, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1949, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1134, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0503, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0743, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3543, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0936, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9746, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.325, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.724, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.449, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.706, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3253, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7243, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.449, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6728, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6728, "attack_index": 0.418, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:32:10Z" }