{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1314, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2809, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1314 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1266 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0993 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.099 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0847 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0993, "0-1": 0.1266, "0-2": 0.0831, "0-3": 0.036, "0-4": 0.0117, "0-5": 0.003, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.099, "1-1": 0.1314, "1-2": 0.0847, "1-3": 0.0368, "1-4": 0.012, "1-5": 0.0031, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0511, "2-1": 0.0664, "2-2": 0.0432, "2-3": 0.0187, "2-4": 0.0061, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0174, "3-1": 0.0226, "3-2": 0.0147, "3-3": 0.0064, "3-4": 0.0021, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0044, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0037, "4-3": 0.0016, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2907, "draw": 0.2809, "away_win": 0.4284 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4095, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5905, "btts_yes": 0.4665, "btts_no": 0.5335, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2723, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.16, "MCR": 7.25, "ATR": 7.13, "GK": 6.89 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.14, "MCR": 7.41, "ATR": 7.25, "GK": 7.4 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Gonzalo García, Ismaïla Sarr", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense." }, "confidence": 0.6, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.301 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2907, "draw": 0.2809, "away_win": 0.4284 }, "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4284, "fair_spread": -0.281, "fair_total": 2.321, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.301, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4095, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4665, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2723, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonzalo García (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.191, "probability": 0.3218, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.2129, "probability": 0.2364, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antonee Robinson (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1051, "probability": 0.0787, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Anan Khalaili (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1457, "probability": 0.1694, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.321, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 802, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.1, "possession_away_pct": 50.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4284, "script": "Crystal Palace is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.28 goals and fair total 2.32.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Crystal Palace lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Ismaïla Sarr against Joachim Andersen, Oscar Bobb in Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Gonzalo García; bench watchlist: Harry Wilson, Samuel Chukwueze, Jonah Kusi-Asare.", "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Ismaïla Sarr; bench watchlist: Brennan Johnson, Yéremy Pino, Dwight McNeil.", "Assist usage should flow through Kevin, Adam Wharton; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Crystal Palace tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.16 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Crystal Palace.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Fulham": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Bernd Leno": { "player_id": 103335, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8926, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 4, 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[ { "player_name": "Edmond Tapsoba", "ranking": 14702 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Medina", "ranking": 14703 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Politano", "ranking": 14704 }, { "player_name": "Gayà", "ranking": 14705 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 14706 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 }, "Dwight McNeil": { "player_id": 935543, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 183, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3448, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.656, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16445, "combined_rank_score": 993.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 881.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dwight McNeil", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Pec", "ranking": 16440 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Dunk", "ranking": 16441 }, { "player_name": "Pedro", "ranking": 16442 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 16443 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 16444 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamie Gittens", "ranking": 16446 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Ampadu", "ranking": 16447 }, { "player_name": "Ross Barkley", "ranking": 16448 }, { "player_name": "Farrukhjon Kodirov", "ranking": 16449 }, { "player_name": "Seung-min Moon", "ranking": 16450 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 0.83, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 400, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 7.29, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kevin", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.1121, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.1032, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.0381, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Joshua King", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.364, "xg_contribution": 0.0927, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.636 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua King (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.197, "xg_contribution": 0.2109, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.803 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.803 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.211 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rodrigo Muniz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2097, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Muniz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.675, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.2399, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joachim Andersen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Philippe Mateta (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joachim Andersen and Calvin Bassey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ismaïla Sarr", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Oscar Bobb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.667, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "xg_contribution": 0.3425, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joachim Andersen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 }, { "player": "Oscar Bobb", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismaïla Sarr (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Joachim Andersen and Oscar Bobb in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.343 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Ryan Sessegnon" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.1207, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Sessegnon", "role": "RB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (LWB) is evenly matched against Ryan Sessegnon in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.1151, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Oscar Bobb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "xg_contribution": 0.1549, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oscar Bobb", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is slightly favored against Oscar Bobb in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.713, "away_midfield_power": 0.741, "home_creative_power": 0.585, "away_creative_power": 0.845, "home_defensive_power": 0.585, "away_defensive_power": 0.758, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.49, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Joshua King", "Sander Berge", "Kevin" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili", "Daniel Muñoz", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.015 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.301, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kevin": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joshua King": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joachim Andersen": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Sessegnon": { "opponents": [ "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Kevin", "Joshua King", "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "opponents": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Sessegnon", "Kevin" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Joshua King" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Chadi Riad": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Antonee Robinson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Oscar Bobb vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0657, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9334, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9189, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.015, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6787, "away_avg_quality": 0.7135, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0348, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2461, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3987, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4633, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1145, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.063, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0366, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0508, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0716, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.011, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.301, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0108, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3006, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.301 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:31:09Z" }