{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Leeds", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1259, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2659, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1259 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1214 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0909 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0891 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0852 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0852, "0-1": 0.0848, "0-2": 0.0438, "0-3": 0.0149, "0-4": 0.0038, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1214, "1-1": 0.1259, "1-2": 0.0637, "1-3": 0.0217, "1-4": 0.0055, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0891, "2-1": 0.0909, "2-2": 0.0463, "2-3": 0.0158, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0432, "3-1": 0.0441, "3-2": 0.0225, "3-3": 0.0076, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0157, "4-1": 0.016, "4-2": 0.0082, "4-3": 0.0028, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0046, "5-1": 0.0047, "5-2": 0.0024, "5-3": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4703, "draw": 0.2659, "away_win": 0.2638 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4498, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5502, "btts_yes": 0.4912, "btts_no": 0.5088, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2334 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.25, "MCR": 7.42, "ATR": 7.05, "GK": 7.48 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.12, "MCR": 7.3, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 7.18 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yasin Ayari, Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel." }, "confidence": 0.6, "home_lambda": 1.455, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4703, "draw": 0.2659, "away_win": 0.2638 }, "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4703, "fair_spread": 0.435, "fair_total": 2.475, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.455, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4498, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4912, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2334, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.1973, "probability": 0.1574, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.2788, "probability": 0.3811, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Georginio Rutter (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.189, "probability": 0.2152, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Wilson (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1528, "probability": 0.2638, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.475, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 779, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.3, "possession_away_pct": 48.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4703, "script": "Brighton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.43 goals and fair total 2.48.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brighton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Leeds chance creation leans on Brenden Aaronson against Ferdi Kadıoğlu in Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Yasin Ayari; bench watchlist: Jack Hinshelwood, Stefanos Tzimas, Evan Ferguson.", "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Wilfried Gnonto, Sean Longstaff, Joël Piroe.", "Assist usage should flow through Georginio Rutter, Harry Wilson; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brighton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.24 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brighton.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.4768, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.0792, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.7131, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "expected_saves": 1.04, "high_pressure_saves": 0.4, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Brighton", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12812998, "match_date": "2026-06-30 01:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Morocco", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 4.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 120, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AP", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186973, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Netherlands", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Tunisia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0571 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186957, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.7083 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186945, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", "opponent": "Japan", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6757 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0899 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233683, "match_date": "2025-11-17", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Lithuania", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Netherlands", 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"player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 15176 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 15177 }, { "player_name": "Daykol Romero", "ranking": 15178 }, { "player_name": "Yimmi Chará", "ranking": 15179 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Cabrera", "ranking": 15180 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7 }, "Luka Vušković": { "player_id": 1405212, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 193, "market_value": 64000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "rating": 7.5204, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.6085, 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"stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", 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"total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17466, "combined_rank_score": 1328.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 541.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 2115.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4658, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Lucca", "ranking": 17461 }, { "player_name": "Sandi Lovrić", "ranking": 17462 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 17463 }, { "player_name": "Cesinha", "ranking": 17464 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 17465 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 17467 }, { "player_name": "Dani Rodríguez", "ranking": 17468 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Červ", "ranking": 17469 }, { "player_name": "Aitor", "ranking": 17470 }, { "player_name": "Angelo Fulgini", "ranking": 17471 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.69, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 357, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 7.18, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yankuba Minteh", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.1588, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaka Bijol", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yankuba Minteh (LW) is slightly favored against Jaka Bijol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.1018, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (RW) is evenly matched against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Georginio Rutter", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.1225, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georginio Rutter (CAM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1434, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joe Rodon", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Joe Rodon in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Baleba", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.1153, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Baleba (CDM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Pascal Struijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.76, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1476, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pascal Struijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luka Vušković and Pascal Struijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Harry Wilson", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Mats Wieffer" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.1383, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mats Wieffer", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Wilson (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mats Wieffer in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brenden Aaronson", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.1671, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brenden Aaronson (RM) is evenly matched against Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.167 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.403, "xg_contribution": 0.0424, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.597 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.81, "away_midfield_power": 0.712, "home_creative_power": 0.872, "away_creative_power": 0.719, "home_defensive_power": 0.879, "away_defensive_power": 0.684, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.532, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Yankuba Minteh", "Yasin Ayari", "Georginio Rutter", "Diego Gómez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Harry Wilson", "Anton Stach", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.016, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.986 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.455, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yankuba Minteh": { "opponents": [ "Jaka Bijol", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Georginio Rutter": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carlos Baleba": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pascal Struijk": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mats Wieffer": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jaka Bijol": { "opponents": [ "Yankuba Minteh" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Georginio Rutter", "Carlos Baleba", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Rodon": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Pascal Struijk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Wilson": { "opponents": [ "Mats Wieffer", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brenden Aaronson": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Yankuba Minteh" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Georginio Rutter" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Baleba vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9282, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9012, "home_midfield_factor": 1.016, "away_midfield_factor": 0.986, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7443, "away_avg_quality": 0.6758, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0685, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3521, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.4286, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.3085, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1496, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0823, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0479, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1685, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0506, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.455, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.775, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3225, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7986, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.455, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:30:48Z" }