{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "R. Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.132, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2794, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.132 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1091 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1065 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0792 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0924, "0-1": 0.1065, "0-2": 0.0638, "0-3": 0.0252, "0-4": 0.0075, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.1091, "1-1": 0.132, "1-2": 0.0774, "1-3": 0.0305, "1-4": 0.009, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.0669, "2-1": 0.0792, "2-2": 0.0469, "2-3": 0.0185, "2-4": 0.0055, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.027, "3-1": 0.032, "3-2": 0.0189, "3-3": 0.0075, "3-4": 0.0022, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0082, "4-1": 0.0097, "4-2": 0.0057, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.002, "5-1": 0.0024, "5-2": 0.0014, "5-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3671, "draw": 0.2794, "away_win": 0.3535 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4292, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5708, "btts_yes": 0.4887, "btts_no": 0.5113, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3061, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2976 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.77, "ATR": 6.71, "GK": 6.88 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.64, "MCR": 7.08, "ATR": 6.66, "GK": 6.96 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Sergio Camello, Andrés Martín", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.55, "home_lambda": 1.212, "away_lambda": 1.184 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3671, "draw": 0.2794, "away_win": 0.3535 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3671, "fair_spread": 0.028, "fair_total": 2.396, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.212, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.184, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4292, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4887, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3061, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2976, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2464, "probability": 0.2589, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Canales (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.219, "probability": 0.0814, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1506, "probability": 0.2627, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2046, "probability": 0.244, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.396, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 623, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5, "possession_home_pct": 48.7, "possession_away_pct": 51.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3671, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.03 goals and fair total 2.40.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; R. Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Rayo Vallecano chance creation leans on Sergio Camello against Jorge Salinas in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Carlos Martín, Randy Nteka.", "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Andrés Martín; bench watchlist: Asier Villalibre, Juan Carlos Arana.", "Assist usage should flow through Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Andrés Martín; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.20 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If R. Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "R. Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Augusto Batalla": { "player_id": 358910, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8837, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 43, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9916, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 12.395, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.86, "high_pressure_saves": 0.71, "shots_faced": 4.0, "opponent_faced": "Andrés Martín, Sergio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0088 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, 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"player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Enzo Millot", "ranking": 15004 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Giroud", "ranking": 15005 }, { "player_name": "Diego Ulloa", "ranking": 15006 }, { "player_name": "Raimundo Rebolledo", "ranking": 15007 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Hall", "ranking": 15008 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Park Jae-Hwan", "ranking": 15010 }, { "player_name": "Loïs Openda", "ranking": 15011 }, { "player_name": "Alistair Johnston", "ranking": 15012 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 15013 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking": 15014 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4 }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "player_id": 965031, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 183, "market_value": 16700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.912, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 14.1107, "dispossessed": 1.8011, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0292, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0325, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1167, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15126916, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Romania", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Romania", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, 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1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Carlos Arana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 } }, "substitutes": { "Juan Carlos Arana": { "player_id": 1084464, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Carlos Arana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 }, "Asier Villalibre": { "player_id": 355072, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 183, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.3924, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 3.8605, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "R. Racing Club", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "R. Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3924, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Asier Villalibre", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.18, "expected_assists": 0.95, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 357, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0689, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Canales", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Sergio Canales in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.392, "xg_contribution": 0.0747, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.0823, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.1159, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.2092, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (SS) is evenly matched against Jorge Salinas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.232, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Jorge Salinas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.232 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "xg_contribution": 0.2017, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 }, { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorge Salinas and Pablo Ramón in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.202 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0796, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (LWB) is evenly matched against Giorgi Tsitaishvili in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gustavo Puerta", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.109, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gustavo Puerta (CM) is slightly favored against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.2035, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Martín (CM) is evenly matched against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.1949, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isi Palazón", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (RWB) is evenly matched against Isi Palazón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Jozhua Vertrouwd" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.512, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.142, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Jozhua Vertrouwd", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrei Rațiu and Jozhua Vertrouwd in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Jozhua Vertrouwd" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.512, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1544, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jozhua Vertrouwd", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Guliashvili (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrei Rațiu and Jozhua Vertrouwd in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.46, "away_midfield_power": 0.551, "home_creative_power": 0.402, "away_creative_power": 0.485, "home_defensive_power": 0.37, "away_defensive_power": 0.431, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.455, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Isi Palazón", "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "Unai López" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gustavo Puerta", "Andrés Martín", "Iñigo Vicente", "Iván Martín", "Sergio Canales" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.019 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.212, "away_lambda": 1.184, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "RWB vs LWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Gustavo Puerta", "Andrés Martín", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Pablo Ramón" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jozhua Vertrouwd": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Augusto Batalla": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marash Kumbulla": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello", "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Martín": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Jozhua Vertrouwd" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Jozhua Vertrouwd" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Facundo González": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.092, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0106, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9997, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.019, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4627, "away_avg_quality": 0.4828, "avg_quality_gap": -0.02, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2406, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2545, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4905, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0594, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0633, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0728, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.212, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.184, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2123, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1838, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.212, "final_away_lambda": 1.184 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.863, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0244, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.254, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:31:51Z" }