{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260905", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1229, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2583, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1229 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1151 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.093 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0886 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0788 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.077, "0-1": 0.0788, "0-2": 0.0419, "0-3": 0.0147, "0-4": 0.0038, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1151, "1-1": 0.1229, "1-2": 0.064, "1-3": 0.0224, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0886, "2-1": 0.093, "2-2": 0.0488, "2-3": 0.0171, "2-4": 0.0045, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0451, "3-1": 0.0474, "3-2": 0.0249, "3-3": 0.0087, "3-4": 0.0023, "4-0": 0.0172, "4-1": 0.0181, "4-2": 0.0095, "4-3": 0.0033, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0053, "5-1": 0.0055, "5-2": 0.0029, "5-3": 0.001, "6-0": 0.0013, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4819, "draw": 0.2583, "away_win": 0.2597 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4758, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5242, "btts_yes": 0.5099, "btts_no": 0.4901, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2172 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.21, "MCR": 7.45, "ATR": 7.49, "GK": 7.32 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.07, "MCR": 7.28, "ATR": 7.16, "GK": 7.36 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dango Ouattara, Brian Brobbey", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.6, "home_lambda": 1.527, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4819, "draw": 0.2583, "away_win": 0.2597 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4819, "fair_spread": 0.477, "fair_total": 2.577, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.527, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4758, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5099, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2172, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2793, "probability": 0.2017, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Wilson Isidor (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.2625, "probability": 0.2084, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sepp van den Berg (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2786, "probability": 0.0663, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1842, "probability": 0.2418, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.577, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 741, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4819, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.48 goals and fair total 2.58.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Dango Ouattara against Chemsdine Talbi in Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Dango Ouattara; bench watchlist: Antoni Milambo, Fabio Carvalho, Gustavo Nunes.", "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Simon Adingra, Eliezer Mayenda, Romaine Mundle.", "Assist usage should flow through Mikkel Damsgaard, Enzo Le Fée; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.29 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brentford": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "player_id": 827362, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.3171, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 52, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 2.1064, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, 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"season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064521, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AS Monaco", "away_team": "Lille", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Monaco", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17630, "combined_rank_score": 1431.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1014.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5077, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 1849.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8546, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Simon Adingra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Peer Koopmeiners", "ranking": 17625 }, { "player_name": "Jan Schöppner", "ranking": 17626 }, { "player_name": "Tijjani Noslin", "ranking": 17627 }, { "player_name": "Perr Schuurs", "ranking": 17628 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 17629 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jack Hendry", "ranking": 17631 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Álvarez", "ranking": 17632 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Fernandes", "ranking": 17633 }, { "player_name": "Veljko Birmančević", "ranking": 17634 }, { "player_name": "Esteban Lepaul", "ranking": 17635 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 339, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 7.21, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dango Ouattara", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.492, "xg_contribution": 0.2818, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chemsdine Talbi", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dango Ouattara (LW) is evenly matched against Chemsdine Talbi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.282 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.1417, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Rigg", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikkel Damsgaard (RW) is evenly matched against Chris Rigg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "xg_contribution": 0.1693, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 }, { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki and Enzo Le Fée in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.2813, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Ballard", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Daniel Ballard and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.281 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mamadou Sangare", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.101, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mamadou Sangare (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Nathan Collins" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.724, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.264, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nathan Collins", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sepp van den Berg and Nathan Collins in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.264 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chris Rigg", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.0726, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Rigg (LWB) is evenly matched against Keane Lewis-Potter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Chemsdine Talbi", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.0629, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "LB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chemsdine Talbi (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sangare" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "xg_contribution": 0.0579, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sangare in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sangare" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.1417, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sangare in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.794, "away_midfield_power": 0.758, "home_creative_power": 0.702, "away_creative_power": 0.729, "home_defensive_power": 0.751, "away_defensive_power": 0.609, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.511, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mamadou Sangare", "Kevin Schade", "Dango Ouattara", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Habib Diarra", "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Chris Rigg", "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.007, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.527, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Dango Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Chemsdine Talbi", "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg", "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sepp van den Berg": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nathan Collins": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Habib Diarra" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chemsdine Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Dango Ouattara", "Michael Kayode", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Rigg": { "opponents": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard", "Keane Lewis-Potter", "Dango Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Schade", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Schade", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Nathan Collins" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Habib Diarra": { "opponents": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Sepp van den Berg" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Habib Diarra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0756, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9467, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9026, "home_midfield_factor": 1.007, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.748, "away_avg_quality": 0.6812, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0668, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3059, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2589, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1312, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0973, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0535, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0311, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1339, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0869, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.527, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.767, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5269, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7669, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.527, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:30:47Z" }