{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Levante", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260906", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-1-4-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1253, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2642, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1253 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1208 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0914 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0896 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0838 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0838, "0-1": 0.1208, "0-2": 0.0896, "0-3": 0.044, "0-4": 0.0162, "0-5": 0.0048, "0-6": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0834, "1-1": 0.1253, "1-2": 0.0914, "1-3": 0.0449, "1-4": 0.0165, "1-5": 0.0049, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.043, "2-1": 0.0634, "2-2": 0.0466, "2-3": 0.0229, "2-4": 0.0084, "2-5": 0.0025, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0146, "3-1": 0.0215, "3-2": 0.0159, "3-3": 0.0078, "3-4": 0.0029, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0037, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.004, "4-3": 0.002, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.261, "draw": 0.2642, "away_win": 0.4748 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4541, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5459, "btts_yes": 0.4937, "btts_no": 0.5063, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2295, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.47, "MCR": 6.71, "ATR": 6.92, "GK": 7.03 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.62, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.03 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Chupete, Roger Brugué", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.472 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.261, "draw": 0.2642, "away_win": 0.4748 }, "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4748, "fair_spread": -0.452, "fair_total": 2.492, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.472, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4541, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4937, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2295, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.3653, "probability": 0.6025, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.3444, "probability": 0.2001, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1013, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrián de la Fuente (Levante)", "estimate": 0.2463, "probability": 0.092, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.492, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 795, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.8, "possession_away_pct": 50.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4748, "script": "Levante is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.45 goals and fair total 2.49.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Levante lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Málaga chance creation leans on Chupete against Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through Chupete; bench watchlist: Adrián Niño, Julen Lobete.", "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Roger Brugué; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov.", "Assist usage should flow through Thiago Fernández; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Levante tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.25 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Levante.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0087, "rating": 7.0349, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9812, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.8686, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "expected_saves": 1.4, "high_pressure_saves": 0.54, "shots_faced": 3.0, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Thiago Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7359 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", 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"ranking": 7923 }, { "player_name": "Chan Kim", "ranking": 7924 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Zapata", "ranking": 7925 }, { "player_name": "Loïs Diony", "ranking": 7926 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3 }, "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3653, "goal_rate": 0.4376, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 1.0092, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3 }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1073, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4134, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.495, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5795, "combined_rank_score": 4058.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Petar Ratkov", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Mráz", "ranking": 5790 }, { "player_name": "José Sagredo", "ranking": 5791 }, { "player_name": "Jahmai Simpson-Pusey", "ranking": 5792 }, { "player_name": "Keisuke Gotō", "ranking": 5793 }, { "player_name": "Baltasar Barcia", "ranking": 5794 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ayoube Amaimouni", "ranking": 5796 }, { "player_name": "Robert Skov", "ranking": 5797 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Perlaza", "ranking": 5798 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Elordi", "ranking": 5799 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Friedrich", "ranking": 5800 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.47, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 356, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.75, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joaquín Muñoz", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0908, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joaquín Muñoz (LM) is evenly matched against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.0654, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Ander Olasagasti in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.0363, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Ander Olasagasti in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Manuel Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.1469, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (RM) is evenly matched against Manuel Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.254, "xg_contribution": 0.2858, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.746 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.746 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.486, "xg_contribution": 0.0343, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.514 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Ander Olasagasti in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Einar Galilea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.193, "xg_contribution": 0.2288, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 }, { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ángel Recio and Einar Galilea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.229 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Bardeli", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.495, "xg_contribution": 0.0831, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "RB", "market_value": 940000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.505 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Bardeli (LM) is evenly matched against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Carlos Puga" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.116, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Puga", "role": "LB", "market_value": 825000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (RM) is evenly matched against Carlos Puga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.1206, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.392, "xg_contribution": 0.1203, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.478, "away_midfield_power": 0.492, "home_creative_power": 0.356, "away_creative_power": 0.377, "home_defensive_power": 0.392, "away_defensive_power": 0.402, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.493, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Joaquín Muñoz", "Izan Merino", "Dani Lorenzo", "David Larrubia" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Thiago Fernández", "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Enzo Bardeli", "Roger Brugué", "Oriol Rey" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-1-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.472, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Joaquín Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Sánchez", "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Einar Galilea": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Puga": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Dani Lorenzo", "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Einar Galilea" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido", "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Puga", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0173, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.01, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0047, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0114, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4301, "away_avg_quality": 0.4468, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0168, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3285, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2238, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0696, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0451, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0804, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0706, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.795, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.472, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7954, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4716, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.472 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.718, "attack_index": 0.417, "defense_concede_index": 1.042, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6039, "attack_index": 1.042, "defense_concede_index": 2.917, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.5, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-06T13:30:28Z" }