{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Man Utd", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260906", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1067, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2325, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1067 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0953 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0821 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0744 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0678 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0468, "0-1": 0.0821, "0-2": 0.0744, "0-3": 0.0446, "0-4": 0.0201, "0-5": 0.0072, "0-6": 0.0022, "0-7": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0582, "1-1": 0.1067, "1-2": 0.0953, "1-3": 0.0571, "1-4": 0.0257, "1-5": 0.0092, "1-6": 0.0028, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0377, "2-1": 0.0678, "2-2": 0.061, "2-3": 0.0365, "2-4": 0.0164, "2-5": 0.0059, "2-6": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0161, "3-1": 0.0289, "3-2": 0.026, "3-3": 0.0156, "3-4": 0.007, "3-5": 0.0025, "3-6": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0052, "4-1": 0.0093, "4-2": 0.0083, "4-3": 0.005, "4-4": 0.0022, "4-5": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0024, "5-2": 0.0021, "5-3": 0.0013, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2723, "draw": 0.2325, "away_win": 0.4952 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.594, "under_2_5_goals": 0.406, "btts_yes": 0.6031, "btts_no": 0.3969, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1656, "away_clean_sheet": 0.278 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.11, "MCR": 7.52, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 7.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.34, "MCR": 7.61, "ATR": 7.54, "GK": 7.48 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brennan Johnson, Bryan Mbeumo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.49. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 1.28, "away_lambda": 1.798 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2723, "draw": 0.2325, "away_win": 0.4952 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4952, "fair_spread": -0.518, "fair_total": 3.078, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.28, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.798, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.594, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6031, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1656, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.278, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jake O'Brien (Everton)", "estimate": 0.3944, "probability": 0.1073, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Matheus Cunha (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.3891, "probability": 0.2319, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hayden Hackney (Everton)", "estimate": 0.195, "probability": 0.2108, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Youri Tielemans (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.1452, "probability": 0.1816, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.078, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 828, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.0, "possession_away_pct": 51.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4952, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.52 goals and fair total 3.08.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Everton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Matheus Cunha against Jarrad Branthwaite in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Brennan Johnson; bench watchlist: Jack Grealish, Dwight McNeil, Beto.", "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Mount.", "Assist usage should flow through Hayden Hackney, Youri Tielemans; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.54 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Everton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Everton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Everton": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Jordan Pickford": { "player_id": 138530, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0959, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 48, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 2.2443, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.8329, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "shots_faced": 6.7, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.4598 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813017, "match_date": "2026-07-11 21:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "England", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "England", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813007, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Mexico", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1812 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813020, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6954 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186676, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.212 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186672, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 43, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.4896 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0329, 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"season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1662, "combined_rank_score": 263.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 353.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0079, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 173.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0959, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stefan Tomović", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Hamidou Kante", "ranking": 1658 }, { "player_name": "Serge Gnabry", "ranking": 1659 }, { "player_name": "Antonee Robinson", "ranking": 1660 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Jgerenaia", "ranking": 1661 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adam Ennafati", "ranking": 1663 }, { "player_name": "Asbjorn Bøndergaard", "ranking": 1664 }, { "player_name": "Jean Pedroso", "ranking": 1665 }, { "player_name": "Nurillo Tukhtasinov", "ranking": 1666 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Doma", "ranking": 1667 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 9 }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "player_id": 979563, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 195, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 7.9, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.073, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.019, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 6, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0588, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0326, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15160, "combined_rank_score": 655.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.01, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 959.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mathías Olivera", "ranking": 15155 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Ahumada", "ranking": 15156 }, { "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking": 15157 }, { "player_name": "Martin Baturina", "ranking": 15158 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 15159 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shokhrukh Abdurakhmonov", "ranking": 15161 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonch Abraev", "ranking": 15162 }, { "player_name": "César Dutra", "ranking": 15163 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 15164 }, { "player_name": "Josip Stanišić", "ranking": 15165 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "player_id": 876643, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1457, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 38, 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"tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16319, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 537.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8619, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1392.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Max Kilman", "ranking": 16314 }, { "player_name": "Strahinja Pavlović", "ranking": 16315 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Sánchez", "ranking": 16316 }, { "player_name": "Marius Bülter", "ranking": 16317 }, { "player_name": "Donovan Léon", "ranking": 16318 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Asier Osambela", "ranking": 16320 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadkarim Toirov", "ranking": 16321 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Nasso", "ranking": 16322 }, { "player_name": "Carlo Villanueva", "ranking": 16323 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Rakhmanov", "ranking": 16324 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0 }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "player_id": 288205, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "rating": 7.1821, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.5337, "dispossessed": 1.2951, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.558, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.698, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Man Utd", "opponent": "Hull", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812990, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Spain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812997, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5283, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186696, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Portugal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2968, "expected_assists": 0.1128, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186858, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Uzbekistan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1203, "expected_assists": 0.4786, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 63, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186709, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0657, "expected_assists": 0.5418, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "expected_assists": 0.1451, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1944, "expected_assists": 0.8829, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 45, "combined_rank_score": 62.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6057, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 63.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1821, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 40 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 41 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 42 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 43 }, { "player_name": "Serhou Guirassy", "ranking": 44 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Fernández", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Cortés", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Vitor Roque", "ranking": 50 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.8, "expected_assists": 0.91, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 414, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 7.51, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.151, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youri Tielemans", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Youri Tielemans in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.0866, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iliman Ndiaye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.1952, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iliman Ndiaye (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Hayden Hackney", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.1244, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amad Diallo", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hayden Hackney (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Amad Diallo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.2272, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (SS) is evenly matched against Lisandro Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.227 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Tyrique George", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.1887, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrique George (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Lisandro Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.1879, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Hayden Hackney" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.752, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "xg_contribution": 0.2118, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hayden Hackney", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 35000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.578 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (LWB) is evenly matched against Hayden Hackney in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.212 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "xg_contribution": 0.0734, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.547 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (CM) is evenly matched against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Andrey Santos", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0506, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrey Santos (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.1119, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (RWB) is evenly matched against Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.3631, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (SS) is evenly matched against Jarrad Branthwaite in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.363 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.3602, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (SS) is evenly matched against Jarrad Branthwaite in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.360 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Šeško", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 78000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.88, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "xg_contribution": 0.3205, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.705 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.705 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Šeško (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€78M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.321 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.818, "away_midfield_power": 0.836, "home_creative_power": 0.85, "away_creative_power": 0.918, "home_defensive_power": 0.709, "away_defensive_power": 0.948, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.495, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Iliman Ndiaye", "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Hayden Hackney" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Amad Diallo", "Youri Tielemans", "Andrey Santos" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 3.4, "key_personal_duel": "Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.995, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.01 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.28, "away_lambda": 1.798, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hayden Hackney": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrique George": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo", "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jake O'Brien": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Hayden Hackney", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson", "Tyrique George", "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leny Yoro": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrey Santos": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Benjamin Šeško": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson", "Tyrique George" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ayden Heaven": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.49. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8944, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9307, "home_midfield_factor": 0.995, "away_midfield_factor": 1.01, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7337, "away_avg_quality": 0.8238, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0901, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4728, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.47, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4912, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2097, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1154, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0671, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0833, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1103, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.28, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.798, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2803, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.7983, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.28, "final_away_lambda": 1.798 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-05T13:32:13Z" }