{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260906", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1866, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Osasuna", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3361, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1866 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1854 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1274 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1225 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0958 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1854, "0-1": 0.1866, "0-2": 0.0958, "0-3": 0.0326, "0-4": 0.0083, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.1225, "1-1": 0.1274, "1-2": 0.0644, "1-3": 0.0219, "1-4": 0.0056, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0416, "2-1": 0.0424, "2-2": 0.0216, "2-3": 0.0074, "2-4": 0.0019, "3-0": 0.0093, "3-1": 0.0095, "3-2": 0.0048, "3-3": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0016, "4-1": 0.0016, "4-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2351, "draw": 0.3361, "away_win": 0.4288 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2407, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7593, "btts_yes": 0.3141, "btts_no": 0.6859, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.5107 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.35, "GK": 7.12 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.7, "ATR": 6.71, "GK": 6.98 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ante Budimir", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 0.672, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2351, "draw": 0.3361, "away_win": 0.4288 }, "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4288, "fair_spread": -0.348, "fair_total": 1.692, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 0.672, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2407, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3141, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5107, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.1485, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.3662, "probability": 0.5202, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.126, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rubén García (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.081, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 1.692, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 605, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.1, "possession_home_pct": 50.5, "possession_away_pct": 49.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4288, "script": "Osasuna is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.35 goals and fair total 1.69.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Osasuna lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Alavés chance creation leans on Lucas Boyé against Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Toni Martínez, Miguel Rodríguez, Mariano Díaz.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Raúl García de Haro, Kike Barja.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Osasuna tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 0.85 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Osasuna.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1159, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 37, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9909, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 11.3949, "duels_won": 1, 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4745, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.061, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7114, "expected_assists": 0.2789, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3935, "combined_rank_score": 1918.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3501.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4745, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kike Barja", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adrián Bernabé", "ranking": 3930 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Castaño", "ranking": 3931 }, { "player_name": "Ardon Jashari", "ranking": 3932 }, { "player_name": "Maduka Okoye", "ranking": 3933 }, { "player_name": "João Mário", "ranking": 3934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Reyna", "ranking": 3936 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ranking": 3937 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 3938 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Coco", "ranking": 3939 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Rowe", "ranking": 3940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.43, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 313, "interceptions": 14, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.71, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Enzo Boyomo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.504, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1917, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alejandro Catena and Enzo Boyomo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonny Otto", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Arguibide" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.411, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.0094, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Arguibide", "role": "RB", "market_value": 850000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonny Otto (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Iñigo Arguibide in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.009 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.42, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.0523, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CDM) is evenly matched against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.42, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0894, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) is evenly matched against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Antonio Sivera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.0434, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 }, { "player": "Antonio Sivera", "role": "GK", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nahuel Tenaglia and Antonio Sivera in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Jonny Otto", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.433, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jonny Otto and Nahuel Tenaglia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0544, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Pérez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ángel Pérez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "xg_contribution": 0.175, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 }, { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nahuel Tenaglia and Ville Koski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.367, "xg_contribution": 0.0317, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.633 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.5, "away_midfield_power": 0.492, "home_creative_power": 0.463, "away_creative_power": 0.368, "home_defensive_power": 0.49, "away_defensive_power": 0.43, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.504, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Denis Suárez", "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Moi Gómez", "Rubén García", "Jonathan Dubasin", "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.004, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.989 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.672, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Enzo Boyomo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Arguibide", "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García", "Iker Muñoz", "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Denis Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Mañas": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Enzo Boyomo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Arguibide": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Antonio Sivera", "Denis Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto", "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Mañas", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Mañas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.133, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0018, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0242, "home_midfield_factor": 1.004, "away_midfield_factor": 0.989, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4408, "away_avg_quality": 0.4501, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0094, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1707, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1866, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2051, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0181, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0722, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0638, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.672, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.664, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6722, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6638, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.672, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7272, "attack_index": 2.084, "defense_concede_index": 0.208, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.25, "team_ppg": 2.33, "opponent_ppg": 2.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.64, "attack_index": 0.625, "defense_concede_index": 0.417, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 2.33, "opponent_ppg": 2.33 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-06T13:30:27Z" }