{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260907", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1442, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3162, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1442 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.144 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1365 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1307 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0742 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1442, "0-1": 0.144, "0-2": 0.0742, "0-3": 0.0252, "0-4": 0.0064, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1307, "1-1": 0.1365, "1-2": 0.0688, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0613, "2-1": 0.0625, "2-2": 0.0319, "2-3": 0.0108, "2-4": 0.0028, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0189, "3-1": 0.0193, "3-2": 0.0099, "3-3": 0.0034, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0044, "4-1": 0.0045, "4-2": 0.0023, "4-3": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3173, "draw": 0.3162, "away_win": 0.3665 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.309, "under_2_5_goals": 0.691, "btts_yes": 0.3879, "btts_no": 0.6121, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3957 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.57, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.64, "MCR": 6.98, "ATR": 6.69, "GK": 7.16 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Enes Ünal (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.321 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 0.927, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3173, "draw": 0.3162, "away_win": 0.3665 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3665, "fair_spread": -0.093, "fair_total": 1.947, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.927, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.309, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3879, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3957, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enes Ünal (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.2851, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marcos Alonso (Celta)", "estimate": 0.2653, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kiko Femenía (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.2159, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo Álvarez (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1163, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.947, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 829, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3665, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 1.95.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Getafe chance creation leans on Enes Ünal against Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Borja Mayoral.", "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ferrán Jutglà, Jones El-Abdellaoui.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 0.97 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Martín Satriano": { "player_id": 973536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2302, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7981, "minutes": 88, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 12.6106, "dispossessed": 2.5221, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.246, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago", "opponent_faced": "Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { 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"Ayase Ueda", "ranking": 3114 }, { "player_name": "Mika Godts", "ranking": 3115 }, { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 }, { "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking": 3121 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 }, "Enes Ünal": { "player_id": 336655, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2851, "goal_rate": 0.5044, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8927, "minutes": 90, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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{ "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking": 3441 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4 }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.775, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.4211, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.485, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2722, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4507, "combined_rank_score": 2528.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.775, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 4502 }, { "player_name": "Iván Colman", "ranking": 4503 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 4504 }, { "player_name": "Cryzan", "ranking": 4505 }, { "player_name": "Valentino Lazaro", "ranking": 4506 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Đuričić", "ranking": 4508 }, { "player_name": "Michał Skóraś", "ranking": 4509 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 4510 }, { "player_name": "Thelo Aasgaard", "ranking": 4511 }, { "player_name": "Richie Laryea", "ranking": 4512 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2 } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.55, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 438, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.1467, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nemanja Gudelj", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.0595, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nemanja Gudelj (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0692, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (RM) is evenly matched against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.431, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.246, "xg_contribution": 0.259, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.754 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.754 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.259 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.431, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.218, "xg_contribution": 0.3208, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.782 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.321 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Kiko Femenía" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.409, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.074, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kiko Femenía", "role": "RB", "market_value": 740000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (LWB) is evenly matched against Kiko Femenía in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0399, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is evenly matched against Nemanja Gudelj in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0441, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (CM) is evenly matched against Nemanja Gudelj in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.064, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Johan Mojica in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Durán", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.1689, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Durán (SS) is evenly matched against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iago Aspas", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.1625, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iago Aspas (SS) is evenly matched against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.477, "away_midfield_power": 0.568, "home_creative_power": 0.369, "away_creative_power": 0.462, "home_defensive_power": 0.422, "away_defensive_power": 0.462, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.456, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Nemanja Gudelj", "Orel Mangala", "Francho Serrano" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Hugo Álvarez", "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román", "Sergio Carreira" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.983, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.013 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.1, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.927, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kiko Femenía": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Durán", "Iago Aspas" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Durán", "Iago Aspas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Durán" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Orel Mangala", "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Kiko Femenía", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Durán": { "opponents": [ "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iago Aspas": { "opponents": [ "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Galán": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Miguel Román will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.097, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9994, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0076, "home_midfield_factor": 0.983, "away_midfield_factor": 1.013, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4497, "away_avg_quality": 0.4933, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0436, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5514, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5714, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3544, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1063, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0585, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.034, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0987, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0675, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.927, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.718, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9267, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7175, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.927, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6771, "attack_index": 0.417, "defense_concede_index": 0.834, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.666, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.667, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-07T13:30:22Z" }