{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260907", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1299, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2764, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1299 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1252 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0949 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0945 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0868 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0949, "0-1": 0.1252, "0-2": 0.0851, "0-3": 0.0382, "0-4": 0.0129, "0-5": 0.0035, "0-6": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0945, "1-1": 0.1299, "1-2": 0.0868, "1-3": 0.039, "1-4": 0.0131, "1-5": 0.0035, "1-6": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0488, "2-1": 0.0657, "2-2": 0.0442, "2-3": 0.0199, "2-4": 0.0067, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0166, "3-1": 0.0223, "3-2": 0.015, "3-3": 0.0068, "3-4": 0.0023, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0042, "4-1": 0.0057, "4-2": 0.0038, "4-3": 0.0017, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2824, "draw": 0.2764, "away_win": 0.4412 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4216, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5784, "btts_yes": 0.4743, "btts_no": 0.5257, "home_clean_sheet": 0.26, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.6, "MCR": 6.74, "ATR": 6.56, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 7.21, "GK": 7.08 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Marc Aguado, Orri Óskarsson", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.347 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2824, "draw": 0.2764, "away_win": 0.4412 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4412, "fair_spread": -0.327, "fair_total": 2.367, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.347, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4216, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4743, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.26, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Facundo Buonanotte (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1751, "probability": 0.0998, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.3753, "probability": 0.2643, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gonzalo Villar (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1687, "probability": 0.1837, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gonçalo Guedes (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.134, "probability": 0.2472, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.367, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 861, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4412, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.33 goals and fair total 2.37.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Orri Óskarsson against Pedro Bigas, Buba Sangaré in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Marc Aguado; bench watchlist: Fernando Niño, Abiel Osorio.", "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Orri Óskarsson; bench watchlist: Jon Gorrotxategi, Takefusa Kubo, Gorka Carrera Zarranz.", "Assist usage should flow through Germán Valera, Gonçalo Guedes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.18 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Matías Dituro": { "player_id": 556884, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 105000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0163, "rating": 6.9907, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 32, "total_long_balls": 23, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 56, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, 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and Igor Zubeldia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Víctor Chust", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "xg_contribution": 0.0908, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Aramburu", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor Chust (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Aramburu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0814, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Soler", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Soler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Buonanotte", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.1624, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Soler", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Buonanotte (CM) is evenly matched against Carlos Soler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Matías Dituro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.403, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.0677, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Bigas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 }, { "player": "Matías Dituro", "role": "GK", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Pedro Bigas and Matías Dituro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonçalo Guedes", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Facundo Buonanotte" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.0848, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Buonanotte", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonçalo Guedes (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Facundo Buonanotte in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Orri Óskarsson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.429, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.2268, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Bigas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orri Óskarsson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedro Bigas and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.227 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Germán Valera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0461, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Germán Valera", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (CDM) is evenly matched against Germán Valera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.507, "away_midfield_power": 0.514, "home_creative_power": 0.439, "away_creative_power": 0.451, "home_defensive_power": 0.446, "away_defensive_power": 0.421, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Facundo Buonanotte", "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo", "Germán Valera" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gonçalo Guedes", "Luka Sučić", "Carlos Soler", "Yangel Herrera" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.001, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.001 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.347, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tete Morente": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Igor Zubeldia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Bigas": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Yangel Herrera" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ezequiel Ponce": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez", "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Igor Zubeldia": { "opponents": [ "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Facundo Buonanotte" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Matías Dituro", "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonçalo Guedes": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Buonanotte", "Germán Valera", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yangel Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce", "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Víctor Chust" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Facundo Buonanotte vs Luka Sučić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9555, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0221, "home_midfield_factor": 1.001, "away_midfield_factor": 1.001, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4453, "away_avg_quality": 0.5578, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1125, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1387, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.044, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8204, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2404, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1322, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0769, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0974, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0686, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.98, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.347, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9804, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3466, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.347 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1932, "attack_index": 1.25, "defense_concede_index": 1.25, "form_multiplier": 0.965, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.432, "attack_index": 0.625, "defense_concede_index": 3.751, "form_multiplier": 1.035, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 4.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "timestamp": "2026-09-07T13:30:22Z" }