{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260911", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1298, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2939, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1298 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1349 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1136 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1134 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0779 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1136, "0-1": 0.1134, "0-2": 0.0585, "0-3": 0.0199, "0-4": 0.0051, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1298, "1-1": 0.1349, "1-2": 0.0682, "1-3": 0.0232, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0764, "2-1": 0.0779, "2-2": 0.0397, "2-3": 0.0135, "2-4": 0.0034, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0297, "3-1": 0.0303, "3-2": 0.0154, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0087, "4-1": 0.0088, "4-2": 0.0045, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.002, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3899, "draw": 0.2939, "away_win": 0.3162 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3735, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6265, "btts_yes": 0.4414, "btts_no": 0.5586, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3116 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.93, "GK": 6.77 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.64, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.71, "GK": 6.81 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Stassin", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.63, "home_lambda": 1.166, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1349, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3899, "draw": 0.2939, "away_win": 0.3162 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3899, "fair_spread": 0.146, "fair_total": 2.186, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.166, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3735, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4414, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3116, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robbie Ure (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.3271, "probability": 0.1805, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Arnaut Danjuma (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.2715, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lucien Agoumé (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.0898, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Filip Ugrinić (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.0985, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.186, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 615, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.5, "possession_home_pct": 49.8, "possession_away_pct": 50.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3899, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.15 goals and fair total 2.19.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Valencia chance creation leans on Arnaut Danjuma against Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Stassin; bench watchlist: Rubén Vargas, Isaac Romero, Chidera Ejuke.", "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Hugo Duro, Diego López, André Almeida.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.09 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sevilla": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Youssouf Fofana": { "player_id": 945062, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 185, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javier Guerra", "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0288, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416323.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0082, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 857, "combined_rank_score": 406.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 739.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1739, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Youssouf Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Trossard", "ranking": 852 }, { "player_name": "André-Franck Zambo Anguissa", "ranking": 853 }, { "player_name": "Igor Thiago", "ranking": 854 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Alikulov", "ranking": 855 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Musiala", "ranking": 856 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Chapman", "ranking": 858 }, { "player_name": "Brad Tapp", "ranking": 859 }, { "player_name": "Éderson", "ranking": 860 }, { "player_name": "Machop Chol", "ranking": 861 }, { "player_name": "Jong-hyun Ko", "ranking": 862 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0532, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "rating": 6.8116, "minutes": 36, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0532, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javier Guerra", "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 0.8113, xG scale 1.4372)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javier Guerra", "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javier Guerra", "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javier Guerra", "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0288, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0844, "rating": 7.1739, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, 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"progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "rating": 6.8119, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.8788, "dispossessed": 2.017, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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"26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1863, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.143, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3715, "combined_rank_score": 1682.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 490.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2874.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6997, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Isaac Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Beltrán", "ranking": 3710 }, { "player_name": "Niclas Eliasson", "ranking": 3711 }, { "player_name": "Orri Óskarsson", "ranking": 3712 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Núñez", "ranking": 3713 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Johansson", "ranking": 3714 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Roman Yaremchuk", "ranking": 3716 }, { "player_name": "Joe Gelhardt", "ranking": 3717 }, { "player_name": "Liam Kitching", "ranking": 3718 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Tetteh", "ranking": 3719 }, { "player_name": "Kiril Despodov", "ranking": 3720 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.451, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", 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"competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.7692307692307692, "assists_per90": 0.7692307692307692, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 30.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.2054, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7715, "minutes": 37, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 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"stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1557, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 0.8113, xG scale 1.4372)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3119, "combined_rank_score": 1080.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1962.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6722, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ayase Ueda", "ranking": 3114 }, { "player_name": "Mika Godts", "ranking": 3115 }, { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 }, { "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking": 3117 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 }, { "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking": 3121 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.51, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9838, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1987, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6722, "minutes": 37, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 6.3949, "dispossessed": 0.9838, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1968, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.846, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6722, "minutes": 28, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.0215, "dispossessed": 0.9838, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, 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"M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.2281, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, 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"fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.7692307692307692, "assists_per90": 0.7692307692307692, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 30.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.2054, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7715, "minutes": 37, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, 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"crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 7.5886, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.465, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 30.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1557, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1557, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 0.8113, xG scale 1.4372)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1557, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.846, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 30, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.5405, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1557, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 1.5385, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 41.9, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.846, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.17, "expected_assists": 0.47, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 265, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } }, "Valencia": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Arnaut Danjuma": { "player_id": 827064, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2715, "goal_rate": 0.2172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 66, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 5.8874, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.471, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin", "opponent_faced": "Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6602, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "expected_assists": 0.2432, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4542, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3473, "combined_rank_score": 1464.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 530.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2398.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7083, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Arnaut Danjuma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jakub Moder", "ranking": 3468 }, { "player_name": "Nabil Bentaleb", "ranking": 3469 }, { "player_name": "Ludovic Ajorque", "ranking": 3470 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Gradit", "ranking": 3471 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Aguilar", "ranking": 3472 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Etta Eyong", "ranking": 3474 }, { "player_name": "Thilo Kehrer", "ranking": 3475 }, { "player_name": "Takumi Minamino", "ranking": 3476 }, { "player_name": "Dani Cárdenas", "ranking": 3477 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Lees-Melou", "ranking": 3478 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 167.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.77, "shots_on_target_pct": 28.6, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Valencia, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3365, "goal_rate": 0.2333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0689, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 68, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "rating": 6.5456, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 0.9767, "dispossessed": 0.9931, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3220, "combined_rank_score": 1167.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 776.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7776, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vasilj", "ranking": 3224 }, { "player_name": "Wouter Burger", "ranking": 3225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.51, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.51, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.599, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0123, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 28, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, 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"total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 4.0493, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.1738, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 28, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 4.0493, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0207, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 23, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.0155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0207, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7776, "minutes": 23, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.0155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, 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"step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9846, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.2503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.2324, "dispossessed": 1.6442, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7975, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { 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"big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.512, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 350, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Miguel Sierra", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 330000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "César Tárrega", "Stole Dimitrievski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "xg_contribution": 0.0823, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 }, { "player": "Stole Dimitrievski", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Sierra (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against César Tárrega and Stole Dimitrievski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 25000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.677, "defenders": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.0575, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javier Guerra", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Javier Guerra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Stassin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 15700000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.587, "defenders": [ "César Tárrega", "Arnau Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.523, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.1544, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Stassin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against César Tárrega and Arnau Martínez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Filip Ugrinić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.471, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0546, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Filip Ugrinić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CDM) is evenly matched against Filip Ugrinić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arnaut Danjuma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2128, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaut Danjuma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kike Salas and Andrés Castrin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.213 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "José Luis Gayà", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.0689, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Luis Gayà (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0886, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.504, "xg_contribution": 0.122, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.496 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CM) is slightly favored against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.547, "away_midfield_power": 0.593, "home_creative_power": 0.426, "away_creative_power": 0.461, "home_defensive_power": 0.487, "away_defensive_power": 0.461, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.48, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé", "Miguel Sierra", "Jon Guridi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Harvey Elliott", "Filip Ugrinić", "Javier Guerra", "Pepelu", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.003 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.166, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs RWB + CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Miguel Sierra": { "opponents": [ "César Tárrega", "Stole Dimitrievski", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra", "Filip Ugrinić", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Stassin": { "opponents": [ "César Tárrega", "Arnau Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Filip Ugrinić", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "José Luis Gayà" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Guridi": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Elliott" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma", "Harvey Elliott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Maffeo", "Arnau Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra", "Lucas Stassin" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arnau Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arnaut Danjuma": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harvey Elliott": { "opponents": [ "Jon Guridi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Maffeo": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Youssouf Fofana vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.098, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.066, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9905, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9745, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 1.003, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5139, "away_avg_quality": 0.5085, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0055, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0396, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.044, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0253, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0083, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0715, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0651, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.489, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.494, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.166, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.65, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1656, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.626, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.166, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.5331, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.874, "form_multiplier": 1.054, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.25, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6291, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.946, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sevilla vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.166, Away 0.626). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.166, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.489, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.494, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.166, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.166, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.626 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-11T13:30:18Z" }