{ "match_info": { "home_team": "R. Racing Club", "away_team": "Alavés", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1306, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Alavés", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2991, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1306 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1358 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.12 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1198 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0747 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.12, "0-1": 0.1306, "0-2": 0.0733, "0-3": 0.0271, "0-4": 0.0075, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.1198, "1-1": 0.1358, "1-2": 0.0747, "1-3": 0.0277, "1-4": 0.0077, "1-5": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0618, "2-1": 0.0686, "2-2": 0.0381, "2-3": 0.0141, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.021, "3-1": 0.0233, "3-2": 0.013, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0054, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0033, "4-3": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3272, "draw": 0.2991, "away_win": 0.3737 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3587, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6413, "btts_yes": 0.4302, "btts_no": 0.5698, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3292, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.62, "MCR": 6.73, "ATR": 7.05, "GK": 7.11 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.58, "MCR": 6.77, "ATR": 7.14, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for R. Racing Club vs Alavés. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Boyé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo García vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.111, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1358, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3272, "draw": 0.2991, "away_win": 0.3737 }, "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3737, "fair_spread": -0.091, "fair_total": 2.131, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.111, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3587, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4302, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3292, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jorge Salinas (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1959, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2627, "probability": 0.4208, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1392, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.128, "probability": 0.2562, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.131, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 609, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3737, "script": "Alavés is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 2.13.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; R. Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Alavés lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Alavés chance creation leans on Lucas Boyé against Jeanuël Belocian, Alvaro Mantilla in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Andrés Martín, Giorgi Guliashvili, Asier Villalibre.", "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Boyé; bench watchlist: Toni Martínez, Aitor Mañas.", "Assist usage should flow through Ángel Pérez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Alavés tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.07 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If R. Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Alavés.", "R. Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "R. Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1909, "goal_rate": 0.4844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9356, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 60.0, "shotConversion": 0.6, "minutesPct": 43.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.54, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416321.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7095, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6997, "combined_rank_score": 5331.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 112.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 10550.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0481, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yassir Zabiri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Garcés", "ranking": 6992 }, { "player_name": "Joel Canchimbo", "ranking": 6993 }, { "player_name": "Mateo García", "ranking": 6994 }, { "player_name": "Alan Rodríguez", "ranking": 6995 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Gamarra", "ranking": 6996 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Daniel Valencia", "ranking": 6998 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Bajrami", "ranking": 6999 }, { "player_name": "Iván Leguizamón", "ranking": 7000 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Lezcano", "ranking": 7001 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Mina", "ranking": 7002 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.513, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.513, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Racing Sant", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 117.0, "goals_per90": 2.3076923076923075, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.85, "shots_on_target_pct": 60.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Racing Sant, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 2.3076923076923075, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2811, "goal_rate": 0.423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0058, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.93, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2828, "goal_rate": 0.4255, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9356, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0313)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2828, "goal_rate": 0.4844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9356, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 60.0, "shotConversion": 0.6, "minutesPct": 43.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2828, "goal_rate": 0.4844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9356, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 60.0, "shotConversion": 0.6, "minutesPct": 43.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.54 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.205, "goal_rate": 0.4844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9356, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 60.0, "shotConversion": 0.6, "minutesPct": 43.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.54, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0952, xG scale 0.9313)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1909, "goal_rate": 0.4844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0481, "minutes": 52, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.5332, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, 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"crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.6894, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.429, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 64.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.0415, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4685, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.6894, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.429, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 64.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.11, "expected_assists": 0.51, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 272, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Antonio Sivera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.0881, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Antonio Sivera", "role": "GK", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ville Koski and Antonio Sivera in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Jonny Otto", "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.423, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "xg_contribution": 0.0524, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 }, { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jonny Otto and Ville Koski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Matteo Prati", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 5000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.462, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.037, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matteo Prati (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "xg_contribution": 0.205, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ville Koski and Nahuel Tenaglia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0523, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (CDM) is evenly matched against Abderrahman Rebbach in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.187, "xg_contribution": 0.2207, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 }, { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jeanuël Belocian and Alvaro Mantilla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonny Otto", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "xg_contribution": 0.0089, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.641 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonny Otto (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.009 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0402, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0629, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.518, "away_midfield_power": 0.504, "home_creative_power": 0.437, "away_creative_power": 0.418, "home_defensive_power": 0.43, "away_defensive_power": 0.461, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.507, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Canales", "Pablo García", "Matteo Prati", "Iván Martín" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Carles Aleñá", "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo García vs Antonio Blanco", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.0, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.997 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.111, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs RWB + CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Antonio Sivera", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto", "Ville Koski", "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Abderrahman Rebbach", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales", "Pablo García", "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Pablo García", "Pablo Ramón" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Prati", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Carles Aleñá": { "opponents": [ "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mariano Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo García vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.052, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.01, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0242, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.984, "home_midfield_factor": 1.0, "away_midfield_factor": 0.997, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4757, "away_avg_quality": 0.4425, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0331, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4791, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.4672, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2374, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0841, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0463, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0269, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0672, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.072, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.898, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.111, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8982, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.111, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.111 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9525, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.946, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6509, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.054, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 2.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for R. Racing Club vs Alavés. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.898, Away 1.111). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.111 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.111, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.898, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.111 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-11T13:30:29Z" }