{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1017, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2287, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1017 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.108 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0988 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0941 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0606 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0563, "0-1": 0.1017, "0-2": 0.0941, "0-3": 0.0577, "0-4": 0.0265, "0-5": 0.0098, "0-6": 0.003, "0-7": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0578, "1-1": 0.108, "1-2": 0.0988, "1-3": 0.0606, "1-4": 0.0278, "1-5": 0.0102, "1-6": 0.0031, "1-7": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0307, "2-1": 0.0564, "2-2": 0.0519, "2-3": 0.0318, "2-4": 0.0146, "2-5": 0.0054, "2-6": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0107, "3-1": 0.0197, "3-2": 0.0182, "3-3": 0.0111, "3-4": 0.0051, "3-5": 0.0019, "3-6": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0028, "4-1": 0.0052, "4-2": 0.0048, "4-3": 0.0029, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2135, "draw": 0.2287, "away_win": 0.5578 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5515, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4485, "btts_yes": 0.5473, "btts_no": 0.4527, "home_clean_sheet": 0.159, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.22, "ATR": 7.37, "GK": 7.74 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.29, "MCR": 7.78, "ATR": 7.56, "GK": 7.85 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kai Havertz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Noah Sadiki vs Declan Rice). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.839, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.108, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2135, "draw": 0.2287, "away_win": 0.5578 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5578, "fair_spread": -0.789, "fair_total": 2.889, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.839, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5515, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5473, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.159, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.2485, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kai Havertz (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.3542, "probability": 0.2872, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nilson Angulo (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.104, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.22, "probability": 0.0625, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.889, "expected_total_shots": 32, "expected_total_passes": 957, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.6, "possession_home_pct": 47.4, "possession_away_pct": 52.6, "notes": "Arsenal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5578, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.79 goals and fair total 2.89.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Bukayo Saka against Kevin Danso, Nordi Mukiele in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Arsenal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Habib Diarra, Wilson Isidor, Omar Alderete.", "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Kai Havertz; bench watchlist: Martín Zubimendi, Bruno Guimarães, Noni Madueke.", "Assist usage should flow through Martin Ødegaard; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sunderland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Brian Brobbey": { "player_id": 910048, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2485, "goal_rate": 0.3218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3693, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.5236, "dispossessed": 2.1745, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 72.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363260.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2617, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2748, "combined_rank_score": 950.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 789.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.629, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1112.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3693, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jon Karrikaburu", "ranking": 2743 }, { "player_name": "Cristopher Barrera", "ranking": 2744 }, { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 }, { "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking": 2750 }, { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.451, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.451, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0873, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 130.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.08, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2368, "goal_rate": 0.3077, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7778, "minutes": 74, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0873, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2574, "goal_rate": 0.3345, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3693, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.5236, "dispossessed": 2.1745, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0379)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2574, "goal_rate": 0.3218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3693, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.5236, "dispossessed": 2.1745, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 72.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2574, "goal_rate": 0.3218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3693, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.5236, "dispossessed": 2.1745, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 72.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1659, "goal_rate": 0.3218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 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0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.6642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 3067 }, { "player_name": "Amine Adli", "ranking": 3068 }, { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.378, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.0792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "rating": 7.2971, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, 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"fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0198, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 3.0594, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 3.0594, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.75 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.6642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.6642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 0.7010, xG scale 1.4979)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.6642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.334, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.6642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.334, 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"assist_probability": 0.0732, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363257.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2698, "expected_assists": 0.2681, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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Makhamadzhonov", "ranking": 636 }, { "player_name": "Ji-hyun Kim", "ranking": 637 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Sepúlveda", "ranking": 638 }, { "player_name": "Ratinho", "ranking": 639 }, { "player_name": "Trincão", "ranking": 640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", 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target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Arsenal, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3112, "goal_rate": 0.4283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9257, "minutes": 86, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 10.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1137, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "rating": 7.5041, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 3.3412, "dispossessed": 2.2275, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "rating": 7.5041, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 3.3412, "dispossessed": 2.2275, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, 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"fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "player_id": 866469, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 182, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "rating": 7.5518, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.6058, "dispossessed": 1.112, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 100, "combined_rank_score": 96.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 107.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4517, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 85.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5518, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bruno Guimarães", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luka Stankovski", "ranking": 95 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking": 96 }, { "player_name": "Luke Brattan", "ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Caicedo", "ranking": 98 }, { "player_name": "Danrlei", "ranking": 99 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sandro Tonali", "ranking": 101 }, { "player_name": "José Sanhueza", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Sosa", "ranking": 104 }, { "player_name": "Hakan Çalhanoğlu", "ranking": 105 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", 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"fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "player_id": 866469, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 182, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "rating": 7.5518, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.6058, "dispossessed": 1.112, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Caicedo", "ranking": 98 }, { "player_name": "Danrlei", "ranking": 99 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sandro Tonali", "ranking": 101 }, { "player_name": "José Sanhueza", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Sosa", "ranking": 104 }, { "player_name": "Hakan Çalhanoğlu", "ranking": 105 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", 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"key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "rating": 7.5518, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.6058, "dispossessed": 1.112, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.66 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.84 (squad xG sum 1.7779, xG scale 1.0344)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "rating": 7.5518, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.6058, "dispossessed": 1.112, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.22, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "rating": 7.5518, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.6058, "dispossessed": 1.112, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.22, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.84, "expected_assists": 1.1, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 499, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.52, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Ben White" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0891, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ben White", "role": "RB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Ben White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.888, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0778, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martin Ødegaard and Declan Rice in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Riccardo Calafiori", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.852, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1659, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "CB", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €62M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.1093, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Martin Ødegaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Christos Tzolis", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Daniel Ballard" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.515, "xg_contribution": 0.2133, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Ballard", "role": "RB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.485 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christos Tzolis (LW) is slightly favored against Daniel Ballard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.213 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Nordi Mukiele" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.603, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.294, "xg_contribution": 0.3258, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 }, { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kevin Danso and Nordi Mukiele in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.326 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.492, "xg_contribution": 0.2285, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €37M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.229 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.662, "away_midfield_power": 0.856, "home_creative_power": 0.544, "away_creative_power": 0.96, "home_defensive_power": 0.637, "away_defensive_power": 1.031, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.436, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki", "Granit Xhaka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Christos Tzolis", "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.5, "key_personal_duel": "Noah Sadiki vs Declan Rice", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.964, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.028 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.839, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "Ben White", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Riccardo Calafiori", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "Christos Tzolis" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Christos Tzolis" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Thomas Meunier": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Riccardo Calafiori": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Christos Tzolis": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Nordi Mukiele" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Reinildo Mandava", "Thomas Meunier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Noah Sadiki vs Declan Rice). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8633, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9475, "home_midfield_factor": 0.964, "away_midfield_factor": 1.028, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6066, "away_avg_quality": 0.8326, "avg_quality_gap": -0.226, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1774, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.0321, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.077, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4606, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2533, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1474, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0698, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0629, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4606, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1201, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9639, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.866, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.642, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.835, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.839, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.866, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6418, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.839 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6288, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 0.208, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.25, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2107, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sunderland vs Arsenal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.866, Away 1.642). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.050, Away 1.839 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.839, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.866, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.642 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:31:01Z" }