{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1207, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brentford", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2774, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1207 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1307 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0971 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0936 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0854 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0936, "0-1": 0.1207, "0-2": 0.0803, "0-3": 0.0353, "0-4": 0.0116, "0-5": 0.0031, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0971, "1-1": 0.1307, "1-2": 0.0854, "1-3": 0.0375, "1-4": 0.0124, "1-5": 0.0033, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0522, "2-1": 0.0688, "2-2": 0.0454, "2-3": 0.0199, "2-4": 0.0066, "2-5": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0185, "3-1": 0.0244, "3-2": 0.0161, "3-3": 0.0071, "3-4": 0.0023, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0049, "4-1": 0.0065, "4-2": 0.0043, "4-3": 0.0019, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2994, "draw": 0.2774, "away_win": 0.4232 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4253, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5747, "btts_yes": 0.4805, "btts_no": 0.5195, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2677, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3454 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.0, "MCR": 7.34, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 7.49 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.15, "MCR": 7.34, "ATR": 7.44, "GK": 7.54 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Igor Thiago", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.063, "away_lambda": 1.318, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1307, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2994, "draw": 0.2774, "away_win": 0.4232 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4232, "fair_spread": -0.255, "fair_total": 2.381, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.063, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.318, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4253, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4805, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2677, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3454, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1939, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.279, "probability": 0.1139, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "James Hill (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.2626, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2311, "probability": 0.0944, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.381, "expected_total_shots": 43, "expected_total_passes": 755, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4232, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.26 goals and fair total 2.38.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 22 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against James Hill, António Silva in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Amine Adli, Ben Gannon-Doak.", "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago; bench watchlist: Yehor Yarmoliuk, Gustavo Nunes, Fabio Carvalho.", "Assist usage should flow through Mikkel Damsgaard; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 22 total first-half shots, and 1.19 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "James Hill": { "player_id": 1156586, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0929, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 15.0545, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2626, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363637.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.7367, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1603, "combined_rank_score": 654.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1109.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0929, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Hill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diyor Ortikboev", "ranking": 1598 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Tapia", "ranking": 1599 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-hyeon Son", "ranking": 1600 }, { "player_name": "Evgeniy Yablonskiy", "ranking": 1601 }, { "player_name": "Renato Huerta", "ranking": 1602 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seong-jin Jeon", "ranking": 1604 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Retre", "ranking": 1605 }, { "player_name": "Doniyor Abdumannopov", "ranking": 1606 }, { "player_name": "Shokhmalik Komilov", "ranking": 1607 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Castellanos", "ranking": 1608 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Bournemouth", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Bournemouth, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7515, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 14.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.25, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0929, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 15.0545, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2626, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 3 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0929, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 15.0545, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2626, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0929, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 15.0545, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2626, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0929, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, 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"player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 1130 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", 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"goal_rate": 0.2388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1851, "minutes": 9, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.0071, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1315, "goal_rate": 0.2379, 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"Bench projection scaled to 17.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.045, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1851, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.3793, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.725, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.045, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1851, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.3793, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.725, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.06 (squad xG sum 1.0990, xG scale 0.9672)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.045, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1851, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.3793, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.725, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.934, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.045, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1851, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.3793, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.725, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.934, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Ben Gannon-Doak": { "player_id": 1154861, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 11, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4523, "combined_rank_score": 2553.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 352.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 4754.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ben Gannon-Doak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolas Fonseca", "ranking": 4518 }, { "player_name": "Telasco Segovia", "ranking": 4519 }, { "player_name": "César Huerta", "ranking": 4520 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Torres", "ranking": 4521 }, { "player_name": "Toni Lato", "ranking": 4522 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álex Sola", "ranking": 4524 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Prati", "ranking": 4525 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Rodriguez", "ranking": 4526 }, { "player_name": "Alan Franco", "ranking": 4527 }, { "player_name": "Deniz Gül", "ranking": 4528 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 11.23, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5748, 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(M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brentford, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 9.0, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.58, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0289, quality 0.596)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0289, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alex Scott", "opponent_faced": "Alex Scott", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.32 (squad xG sum 1.6876, xG scale 0.7810)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alex Scott", "opponent_faced": "Alex Scott", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alex Scott", "opponent_faced": "Alex Scott", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alex Scott", "opponent_faced": "Alex Scott", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "rating": 7.125, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 9.2602, "dispossessed": 1.5434, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5968, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alex Scott", "opponent_faced": "Alex Scott", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1472, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "player_id": 1064697, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 181, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "rating": 7.5695, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 11.909, "dispossessed": 3.2479, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1949, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.64, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Tyler Adams", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0562, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1404, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363260.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1461, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.214, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.3254, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1027, "combined_rank_score": 456.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 522.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5695, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking": 1022 }, { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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2.4125, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.071, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4125, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.32 (squad xG sum 1.6876, xG scale 0.7810)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4125, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.732, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4125, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0539, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.732, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 } } ] }, "Fabio Carvalho": { "player_id": 991604, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 170, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.732, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3731, "combined_rank_score": 1717.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 751.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.66, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 2684.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fabio Carvalho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Veljko Birmančević", "ranking": 3726 }, { "player_name": "Jay DaSilva", "ranking": 3727 }, { "player_name": "Oskar Pietuszewski", "ranking": 3728 }, { "player_name": "Honest Ahanor", "ranking": 3729 }, { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 3730 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Facundo Buonanotte", "ranking": 3732 }, { "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking": 3733 }, { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 3734 }, { "player_name": "Kendry Páez", "ranking": 3735 }, { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52527948921528, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5693308858734218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4963, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brentford", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€7,800,000) scaled to 25.5 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.50)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.249, "goal_rate": 0.16, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.089, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 8.5, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.189, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.249, "goal_rate": 0.16, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.089, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 8.5, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.189, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.32 (squad xG sum 1.6876, xG scale 0.7810)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.732, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.732, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.32, "expected_assists": 0.86, "total_shots": 26, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 362, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 7.3, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.2011, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (LW) is evenly matched against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.1054, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (RW) is evenly matched against Keane Lewis-Potter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.1125, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Vitaly Janelt and Mamadou Sangare in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Jannik Schuster", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.632, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.2, "xg_contribution": 0.1614, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.8 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jannik Schuster and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.596, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.503, "xg_contribution": 0.1265, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CDM) is slightly favored against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "xg_contribution": 0.1731, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "RB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (LW) is slightly favored against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.618, "xg_contribution": 0.077, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "LB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.382 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikkel Damsgaard (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Adam Smith in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jaidon Anthony", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.76, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.0584, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaidon Anthony (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Scott and Tyler Adams in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €40M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.681, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.287, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 }, { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against James Hill and António Silva in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.287 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Vitaly Janelt", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.596, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.0526, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vitaly Janelt (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.789, "away_midfield_power": 0.743, "home_creative_power": 0.702, "away_creative_power": 0.674, "home_defensive_power": 0.66, "away_defensive_power": 0.745, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.515, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alex Scott", "Marcus Tavernier", "Justin Kluivert", "Rayan", "Tyler Adams" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kevin Schade", "Mikkel Damsgaard", "Jaidon Anthony", "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan vs Mamadou Sangare", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.001, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.997 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.063, "away_lambda": 1.318, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Jannik Schuster", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Jaidon Anthony", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Alex Scott" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jannik Schuster": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaidon Anthony": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams", "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson", "Alex Scott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0869, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9233, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.938, "home_midfield_factor": 1.001, "away_midfield_factor": 0.997, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6903, "away_avg_quality": 0.7041, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0137, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0484, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0558, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0405, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0049, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1346, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1104, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.063, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.318, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.063, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3182, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.063, "final_away_lambda": 1.318 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8572, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 0.416, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 0.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3871, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Bournemouth vs Brentford. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.063, Away 1.318). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.063, Away 1.318 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.063, "away_lambda": 1.318, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.063, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.318 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:18Z" }