{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.11, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Athletic Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2468, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.11 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1174 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.096 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0915 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0697 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0682, "0-1": 0.0697, "0-2": 0.0371, "0-3": 0.013, "0-4": 0.0034, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.11, "1-1": 0.1174, "1-2": 0.0612, "1-3": 0.0214, "1-4": 0.0056, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0915, "2-1": 0.096, "2-2": 0.0504, "2-3": 0.0176, "2-4": 0.0046, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0503, "3-1": 0.0528, "3-2": 0.0277, "3-3": 0.0097, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0207, "4-1": 0.0218, "4-2": 0.0114, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0068, "5-1": 0.0072, "5-2": 0.0038, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0019, "6-1": 0.002, "6-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5126, "draw": 0.2468, "away_win": 0.2406 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5061, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4939, "btts_yes": 0.526, "btts_no": 0.474, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1922 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.63, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 6.5, "GK": 8.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.73, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.6, "GK": 7.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Robert Navarro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Nico Williams vs Germán Valera). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.05, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1174, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5126, "draw": 0.2468, "away_win": 0.2406 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5126, "fair_spread": 0.599, "fair_total": 2.699, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.649, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5061, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1922, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.5392, "probability": 0.0834, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1878, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1001, "probability": 0.1456, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Germán Valera (Elche)", "estimate": 0.133, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.699, "expected_total_shots": 35, "expected_total_passes": 739, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 52.5, "possession_away_pct": 47.5, "notes": "Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5126, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.60 goals and fair total 2.70.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Elche chance creation leans on Fernando Niño against Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Robert Navarro; bench watchlist: Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Prados, Álvaro Djaló.", "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Martim Neto, Ezequiel Ponce.", "Assist usage should flow through Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.35 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Oihan Sancet": { "player_id": 966801, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 188, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3165, "rating": 7.4041, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 13.3946, "dispossessed": 2.889, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.9823, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3152, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 86, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 37.5, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kevin Lomónaco, Matías Dituro", "opponent_faced": "Kevin Lomónaco, Matías Dituro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2458, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1422, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416317.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5786, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4254, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3757, "expected_assists": 0.1728, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2326, "combined_rank_score": 1044.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 845.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5786, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4041, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oihan Sancet", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sunnatilla Poyonov", "ranking": 2321 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Torres", "ranking": 2322 }, { "player_name": "Lars Traber", "ranking": 2323 }, { "player_name": "Adem Zorgane", "ranking": 2324 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Ruggeri", "ranking": 2325 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dušan Tadić", "ranking": 2327 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 2328 }, { "player_name": "Yerko Leiva", "ranking": 2329 }, { "player_name": "Sergiño Dest", "ranking": 2330 }, { "player_name": "Kosta Barbarouses", "ranking": 2331 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.527, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.527, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 244.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.95, "shots_on_target_pct": 37.5, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Athletic Club, rel: 0.18, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2405, "rating": 7.0478, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 12.75, "dispossessed": 2.75, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 82, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2526, "rating": 7.4041, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 13.3946, "dispossessed": 2.889, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0506, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3152, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 86, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2526, "rating": 7.4041, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 13.3946, "dispossessed": 2.889, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.9823, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3152, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 86, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 37.5, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.74 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2526, "rating": 7.4041, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, 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"offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 31.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.6352, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.0831, "dispossessed": 1.9684, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 31.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.588, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 393, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.76, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 5.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Kevin Lomónaco", "Matías Dituro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.2385, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Lomónaco", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 }, { "player": "Matías Dituro", "role": "GK", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Kevin Lomónaco and Matías Dituro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.238 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust", "Kevin Lomónaco" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.474, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.267, "xg_contribution": 0.1015, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 }, { "player": "Kevin Lomónaco", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Víctor Chust and Kevin Lomónaco in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Gonzalo Villar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0681, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gonzalo Villar", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (CAM) is evenly matched against Gonzalo Villar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nico Williams", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.406, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.585, "xg_contribution": 0.1349, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.415 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico Williams (CDM) is slightly favored against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.458, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "xg_contribution": 0.2442, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Víctor Chust", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.1678, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor Chust (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.168 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javi Morcillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 515000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Nico Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "xg_contribution": 0.029, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Williams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Morcillo (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico Williams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Nico Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.0626, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Williams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico Williams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.621, "away_midfield_power": 0.457, "home_creative_power": 0.506, "away_creative_power": 0.466, "home_defensive_power": 0.509, "away_defensive_power": 0.345, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.576, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Oihan Sancet", "Robert Navarro", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Nico Williams", "Iñaki Williams", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Gonzalo Villar", "Thomas Lemar", "Javi Morcillo", "Germán Valera" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 5.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Nico Williams vs Germán Valera", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.98 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs RWB + CB", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Lomónaco", "Matías Dituro", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Kevin Lomónaco", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Williams": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Tete Morente", "Abiel Osorio" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kevin Lomónaco": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro", "Jesús Areso" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Nico Williams", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Iñaki Williams", "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Thomas Lemar": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abiel Osorio": { "opponents": [ "Yuri Berchiche", "Aymeric Laporte" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tete Morente": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Nico Williams vs Germán Valera). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.056, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.102, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0061, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0066, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.98, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5069, "away_avg_quality": 0.439, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0679, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.9799, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.0691, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.3262, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2176, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1197, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0696, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0565, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0942, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.649, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.841, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6492, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8407, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.649, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6237, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 2.499, "form_multiplier": 1.051, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.0, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0227, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.949, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Athletic Club vs Elche. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.649, Away 0.841). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.649, Away 1.050 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.05, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.649, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.841 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:50Z" }