{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1168, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Osasuna", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2875, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1168 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1342 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1134 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1033 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0769 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1033, "0-1": 0.1134, "0-2": 0.0645, "0-3": 0.0242, "0-4": 0.0068, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1168, "1-1": 0.1342, "1-2": 0.0747, "1-3": 0.028, "1-4": 0.0079, "1-5": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0684, "2-1": 0.0769, "2-2": 0.0433, "2-3": 0.0162, "2-4": 0.0046, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0264, "3-1": 0.0297, "3-2": 0.0167, "3-3": 0.0063, "3-4": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0076, "4-1": 0.0086, "4-2": 0.0048, "4-3": 0.0018, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0018, "5-1": 0.002, "5-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3644, "draw": 0.2875, "away_win": 0.3481 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3994, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6006, "btts_yes": 0.4645, "btts_no": 0.5355, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3247, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3141 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.51, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 7.33, "GK": 6.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ante Budimir", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.63, "home_lambda": 1.158, "away_lambda": 1.125, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1342, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3644, "draw": 0.2875, "away_win": 0.3481 }, "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3644, "fair_spread": 0.033, "fair_total": 2.283, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.158, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.125, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3994, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4645, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3247, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3141, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.5437, "probability": 0.5962, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.269, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Romain Del Castillo (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.135, "probability": 0.2618, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1083, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.283, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 727, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3644, "script": "Osasuna is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.03 goals and fair total 2.28.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Espanyol must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Osasuna lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Leandro Cabrera, Omar El Hilali in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Enzo Boyomo, Raúl Moro, Kike Barja.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Bryan Zaragoza, Javi Puado, Vanja Drkušić.", "Assist usage should flow through Romain Del Castillo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Osasuna tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Espanyol is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Osasuna.", "Espanyol wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Alejandro Catena": { "player_id": 900792, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 194, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.708, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 10.3029, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0508, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.035, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416318.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 90, "accurate_pass": 83, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 145, "combined_rank_score": 147.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 132.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 162.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.708, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 }, { "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking": 141 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 }, { "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking": 143 }, { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 }, { "player_name": "Esteban Kirkman", "ranking": 147 }, { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 149 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 150 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8364, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 55, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 10.5, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 89, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.708, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 10.3029, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.708, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 10.3029, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.708, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 10.3029, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.6134, xG scale 1.8878)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.708, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 10.3029, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774, "opponent_faced": "Roberto 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0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0310)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.2274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4674, "minutes": 8, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.9437, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, 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"shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 2.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.99, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4674, "minutes": 16, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, 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"shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.4674, "minutes": 16, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5341, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 2.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.99, 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"aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.34 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.6134, xG scale 1.8878)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.8306, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.34, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.894, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.8306, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, 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"position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 181, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8435, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.5882, "dispossessed": 1.0224, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, 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1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 51, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1828, "combined_rank_score": 705.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 966.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8435, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Boyomo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Benjamin André", "ranking": 1823 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 1824 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Tagliafico", "ranking": 1825 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 1826 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 1827 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yasin Ayari", "ranking": 1829 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Ovelar", "ranking": 1830 }, { "player_name": "Diego Sanhueza", "ranking": 1831 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Astudillo", "ranking": 1832 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rongier", "ranking": 1833 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.381, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.381, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.613, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0224, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 52.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (2 historical appearances) to 35.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 52.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, 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"tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8435, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.0898, "dispossessed": 1.0224, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0186)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8435, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.0898, "dispossessed": 1.0224, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 19.3, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, 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"total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 19.3, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.73, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.613, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8435, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.5882, "dispossessed": 1.0224, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 19.3, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.73, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.613, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.6134, xG scale 1.8878)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.8435, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, 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"total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 6.4382, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.57 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, 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"97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3267, "combined_rank_score": 1211.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1978.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.853, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Urko González", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Félix Correia", "ranking": 3262 }, { "player_name": "Kenneth Taylor", "ranking": 3263 }, { "player_name": "Johan Vásquez", "ranking": 3264 }, { "player_name": "Mamadou Sarr", "ranking": 3265 }, { "player_name": "Yoan Bonny", "ranking": 3266 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tasos Douvikas", "ranking": 3268 }, { "player_name": "Sam Beukema", "ranking": 3269 }, { "player_name": "Máximo Perrone", "ranking": 3270 }, { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.521, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", 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"total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 0.8727, xG scale 1.2891)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "player_id": 908617, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 186, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416310.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 811, "combined_rank_score": 532.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 673.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6639, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Vanja Drkušić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chang-woo Park", "ranking": 806 }, { "player_name": "Ronan", "ranking": 807 }, { "player_name": "Roy Revivo", "ranking": 808 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Magallanes", "ranking": 809 }, { "player_name": "Dženis Burnić", "ranking": 810 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Souza", "ranking": 812 }, { "player_name": "Teddy Teuma", "ranking": 813 }, { "player_name": "Yoel Bárcenas", "ranking": 814 }, { "player_name": "Piero Quispe", "ranking": 815 }, { "player_name": "Seung-wan Ryu", "ranking": 816 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.388, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.388, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.412, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9905, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (2 historical appearances) to 19.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.41); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 6.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9905, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 6.4382, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0403)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 6.4382, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.57 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 0.8727, xG scale 1.2891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6639, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4243, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.12, "expected_assists": 0.69, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 367, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.78, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Romain Del Castillo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Unai Núñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.441, "xg_contribution": 0.0895, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai Núñez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.559 } ], "duel_analysis": "Romain Del Castillo (LW) is evenly matched against Unai Núñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Roger Hinojo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.041, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roger Hinojo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (RW) is evenly matched against Roger Hinojo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0516, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Omar El Hilali" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.5, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.183, "xg_contribution": 0.288, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 }, { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Leandro Cabrera and Omar El Hilali in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.288 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.0318, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Rockson Yeboah" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.226, "xg_contribution": 0.2087, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 }, { "player": "Rockson Yeboah", "role": "CB", "market_value": 280000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alejandro Catena and Rockson Yeboah in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.1058, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (LM) is evenly matched against Abel Bretones in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Arguibide" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.411, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.108, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Arguibide", "role": "LB", "market_value": 850000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (RM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Arguibide in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Moscardo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "xg_contribution": 0.0442, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.537 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Moscardo (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.503, "away_midfield_power": 0.52, "home_creative_power": 0.428, "away_creative_power": 0.397, "home_defensive_power": 0.412, "away_defensive_power": 0.456, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.492, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Iker Muñoz", "Jonathan Dubasin", "Romain Del Castillo", "Rubén García" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javier Hernández", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Edu Expósito", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Álex Calatrava" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Moncayola vs Tyrhys Dolan", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.996, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.158, "away_lambda": 1.125, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Romain Del Castillo": { "opponents": [ "Unai Núñez", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Roger Hinojo", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Omar El Hilali" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo", "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rockson Yeboah": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Arguibide": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Unai Núñez": { "opponents": [ "Romain Del Castillo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roger Hinojo": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin", "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Rockson Yeboah" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Romain Del Castillo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Arguibide", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Calatrava": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.179, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0024, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0163, "home_midfield_factor": 0.996, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.439, "away_avg_quality": 0.4729, "avg_quality_gap": -0.034, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.523, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5482, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3543, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0943, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0519, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0302, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0559, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0611, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.158, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.125, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1582, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1254, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.158, "final_away_lambda": 1.125 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0405, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1919, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Osasuna vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.158, Away 1.125). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.158, Away 1.125 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.158, "away_lambda": 1.125, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.158, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.125 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:40Z" }