{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Everton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1306, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Everton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.299, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1306 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1358 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1199 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1197 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0748 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1199, "0-1": 0.1306, "0-2": 0.0733, "0-3": 0.0272, "0-4": 0.0076, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.1197, "1-1": 0.1358, "1-2": 0.0748, "1-3": 0.0277, "1-4": 0.0077, "1-5": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0617, "2-1": 0.0686, "2-2": 0.0381, "2-3": 0.0141, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.021, "3-1": 0.0233, "3-2": 0.013, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0053, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0033, "4-3": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.327, "draw": 0.299, "away_win": 0.374 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.359, "under_2_5_goals": 0.641, "btts_yes": 0.4304, "btts_no": 0.5696, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3289, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.37, "MCR": 7.47, "ATR": 7.29, "GK": 7.16 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.95, "MCR": 7.35, "ATR": 7.22, "GK": 6.94 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tottenham vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Thierno Barry", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.112, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1358, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.327, "draw": 0.299, "away_win": 0.374 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.374, "fair_spread": -0.092, "fair_total": 2.132, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.112, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.359, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4304, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3289, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Micky van de Ven (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.3573, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Tyrique George (Everton)", "estimate": 0.2806, "probability": 0.2256, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sávio (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2021, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Merlin Röhl (Everton)", "estimate": 0.157, "probability": 0.2375, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.132, "expected_total_shots": 37, "expected_total_passes": 883, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.2, "possession_home_pct": 50.7, "possession_away_pct": 49.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.374, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 2.13.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tottenham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Micky van de Ven, Jan Paul van Hecke in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Mohammed Kudus, Xavi Simons, Dominic Solanke.", "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Brennan Johnson, Beto, Tim Iroegbunam.", "Assist usage should flow through Merlin Röhl; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.07 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tottenham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Tottenham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tottenham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Sávio": { "player_id": 1046795, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 176, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363638.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.2698, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1302, "combined_rank_score": 563.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 430.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5588, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Savinho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Khéphren Thuram", "ranking": 1297 }, { "player_name": "Idrissa Gana Gueye", "ranking": 1298 }, { "player_name": "Kouadio Manu Koné", "ranking": 1299 }, { "player_name": "Anders Dreyer", "ranking": 1300 }, { "player_name": "Noa Lang", "ranking": 1301 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 1303 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Kalulu", "ranking": 1304 }, { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0792, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1873, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1481, "rating": 7.0038, "minutes": 61, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 16.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 9, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 142, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0792, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1599, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.7835, xG scale 0.5719)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 10, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 153, "progressive_carries": 9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Merlin Röhl", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "rating": 7.5588, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 17.2678, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, 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"duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 18.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.96 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0054, "rating": 6.814, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 18.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.96 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.11 (squad xG sum 1.2008, xG scale 0.9260)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "rating": 6.814, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 18.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.849, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "rating": 6.814, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 18.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.849, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.11, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 376, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 7.18, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mateus Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Jordan Pickford" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.0565, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jordan Pickford", "role": "GK", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateus Fernandes (LW) is slightly favored against Jordan Pickford in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sávio", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "James Garner", "Merlin Röhl" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.696, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.1145, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Merlin Röhl", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 14700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sávio (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against James Garner and Merlin Röhl in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "xg_contribution": 0.2299, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.771 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.771 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.0831, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (CDM) is evenly matched against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Pedro Porro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.491, "xg_contribution": 0.1924, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Porro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.509 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) is evenly matched against Pedro Porro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hayden Hackney", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Destiny Udogie" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.47, "xg_contribution": 0.0609, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Destiny Udogie", "role": "LB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.53 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hayden Hackney (RW) is evenly matched against Destiny Udogie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jack Grealish", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.75, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0414, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sandro Tonali", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rodrigo Bentancur", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 19300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Grealish (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sandro Tonali and Rodrigo Bentancur in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2358, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €57M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.236 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Sandro Tonali" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "xg_contribution": 0.0468, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sandro Tonali", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sandro Tonali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.796, "away_midfield_power": 0.761, "home_creative_power": 0.702, "away_creative_power": 0.685, "home_defensive_power": 0.745, "away_defensive_power": 0.626, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.511, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Sávio", "Sandro Tonali", "Rodrigo Bentancur", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jack Grealish", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "James Garner", "Hayden Hackney", "Merlin Röhl" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Sandro Tonali vs James Garner", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.006, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.995 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.112, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Pickford", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sávio": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Merlin Röhl", "Jack Grealish", "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Porro": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Destiny Udogie": { "opponents": [ "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rodrigo Bentancur": { "opponents": [ "Jack Grealish", "Merlin Röhl" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Tyrique George", "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Mathys Tel": { "opponents": [ "James Tarkowski", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Sávio", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Merlin Röhl": { "opponents": [ "Sávio", "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Porro", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hayden Hackney": { "opponents": [ "Destiny Udogie", "Sávio" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Grealish": { "opponents": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Rodrigo Bentancur", "Sávio" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Micky van de Ven", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Mathys Tel" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tyrique George": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9494, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1471, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9355, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.88, "home_midfield_factor": 1.006, "away_midfield_factor": 0.995, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.776, "away_avg_quality": 0.6857, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0903, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4392, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3972, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2007, "elite_count_gap": 4, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1834, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1009, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0587, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0963, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0781, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.011, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.112, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0113, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1121, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.112 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8219, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.948, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3884, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.052, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Tottenham vs Everton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.011, Away 1.112). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.112 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.112, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.011, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.112 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:50Z" }