{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Fulham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0952, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Liverpool", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1533, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0952 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0909 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0846 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0807 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0712 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0271, "0-1": 0.0253, "0-2": 0.0122, "0-3": 0.0039, "0-4": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0712, "1-1": 0.0685, "1-2": 0.0325, "1-3": 0.0103, "1-4": 0.0025, "2-0": 0.0952, "2-1": 0.0909, "2-2": 0.0433, "2-3": 0.0138, "2-4": 0.0033, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0846, "3-1": 0.0807, "3-2": 0.0385, "3-3": 0.0122, "3-4": 0.0029, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0564, "4-1": 0.0538, "4-2": 0.0257, "4-3": 0.0082, "4-4": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.03, "5-1": 0.0287, "5-2": 0.0137, "5-3": 0.0043, "5-4": 0.001, "6-0": 0.0133, "6-1": 0.0127, "6-2": 0.0061, "6-3": 0.0019, "7-0": 0.0051, "7-1": 0.0048, "7-2": 0.0023, "7-3": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0017, "8-1": 0.0016, "8-2": 0.0008, "9-0": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7364, "draw": 0.1533, "away_win": 0.1103 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7005, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2995, "btts_yes": 0.5723, "btts_no": 0.4277, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3852, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0696 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.15, "MCR": 7.72, "ATR": 7.68, "GK": 7.23 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.07, "MCR": 7.22, "ATR": 7.25, "GK": 6.7 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Fulham. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Florian Wirtz vs Oscar Bobb). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 2.665, "away_lambda": 0.954, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7364, "draw": 0.1533, "away_win": 0.1103 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7364, "fair_spread": 1.711, "fair_total": 3.619, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 2.665, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 0.954, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7005, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5723, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3852, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0696, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alexander Isak (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.7029, "probability": 0.612, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Timothy Castagne (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.2334, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.1076, "probability": 0.22, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Oscar Bobb (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1505, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.619, "expected_total_shots": 35, "expected_total_passes": 1063, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.2, "possession_home_pct": 52.6, "possession_away_pct": 47.4, "notes": "Liverpool projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7364, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.71 goals and fair total 3.62.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against Calvin Bassey, Joachim Andersen in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Liverpool projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai; bench watchlist: Hugo Ekitiké, Rio Ngumoha.", "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Hugo Larsson, Rodrigo Muniz, Ryan Sessegnon.", "Assist usage should flow through Dominik Szoboszlai; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.81 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Liverpool": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Alexander Isak": { "player_id": 823941, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 193, "market_value": 88000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7029, "goal_rate": 0.8702, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.2562, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0666, "dispossessed": 1.1164, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8819, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 42.9, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.318, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Joachim Andersen", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Joachim Andersen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.612, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0935, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2098, "expected_assists": 0.0504, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0868, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 236, "combined_rank_score": 174.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.2562, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alexander Isak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "William Saliba", "ranking": 232 }, { "player_name": "Elliot Anderson", "ranking": 233 }, { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 234 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 235 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleix García", "ranking": 237 }, { "player_name": "Gerson", "ranking": 238 }, { "player_name": "Federico Botti", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Jeisson Vargas", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1164, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Liverpool", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 42.9, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Liverpool, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4103, "goal_rate": 0.7985, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3956, "minutes": 81, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.33, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.79, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1164, quality 0.888)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4581, "goal_rate": 0.8914, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.2562, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0666, "dispossessed": 1.1164, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8819, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4581, "goal_rate": 0.8702, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.2562, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0666, "dispossessed": 1.1164, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8819, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 42.9, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4581, "goal_rate": 0.8702, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.2562, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0666, "dispossessed": 1.1164, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8819, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 42.9, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.388, "goal_rate": 0.8702, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.2562, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0666, "dispossessed": 1.1164, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8819, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 42.9, 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"Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0451, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1364, "goal_rate": 0.1164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 10, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0627, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1364, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 10, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0627, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0215, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.4851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0215, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.4851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.95 (squad xG sum 1.3873, xG scale 0.6877)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0215, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.4851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.792, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0215, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.091, "minutes": 17, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.4851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.792, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Ryan Sessegnon": { "player_id": 836698, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 178, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 18, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.4416, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0032, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.792, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0791, "expected_assists": 0.3199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.1245, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3091, "combined_rank_score": 1057.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1417.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ryan Sessegnon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 }, { "player_name": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "ranking": 3089 }, { "player_name": "Luis Romo", "ranking": 3090 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Albian Hajdari", "ranking": 3092 }, { "player_name": "Joe Willock", "ranking": 3093 }, { "player_name": "Adam Hložek", "ranking": 3094 }, { "player_name": "Jamie Gittens", "ranking": 3095 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Montiel", "ranking": 3096 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.255, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.255, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.618, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 21.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 18.0 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 21.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "expected_goals": 0.021, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, 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"accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.2, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.061, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.016, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.2 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 18.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { 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mins (appearance prob 0.55)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0535, "rating": 6.7679, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0653, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.057, "rating": 7.2096, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 3.1958, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "rating": 7.2096, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8196, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "rating": 7.2096, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8196, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.95 (squad xG sum 1.3873, xG scale 0.6877)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "rating": 7.2096, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8196, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.792, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "rating": 7.2096, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8196, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.792, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 588, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 91000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "xg_contribution": 0.157, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.405 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominik Szoboszlai (LW) is slightly favored against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€91M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Joachim Andersen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.675, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.318, "xg_contribution": 0.388, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.682 }, { "player": "Joachim Andersen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.682 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.388 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 95000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Alex Iwobi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.2, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Iwobi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (CDM) is slightly favored against Alex Iwobi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€95M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.200 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "César Palacios", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.365, "xg_contribution": 0.12, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.635 } ], "duel_analysis": "César Palacios (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Ronald Araújo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.1858, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (RW) is evenly matched against Miloš Kerkez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.186 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Joshua King", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.885, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1212, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Wirtz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 95000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua King (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Florian Wirtz and Alexis Mac Allister in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €86M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.715, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1823, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Virgil van Dijk and Jérémy Jacquet in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.0576, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Wirtz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 95000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Florian Wirtz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €95M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.887, "away_midfield_power": 0.666, "home_creative_power": 0.757, "away_creative_power": 0.684, "home_defensive_power": 0.842, "away_defensive_power": 0.536, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.571, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "César Palacios", "Joshua King", "Oscar Bobb", "Alex Iwobi", "Shea Charles" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Florian Wirtz vs Oscar Bobb", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.028, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.977 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.665, "away_lambda": 0.954, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Shea Charles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Joachim Andersen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi", "Joshua King", "César Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ronald Araújo": { "opponents": [ "César Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Joshua King", "Alex Iwobi", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Shea Charles" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Víctor Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Joachim Andersen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joachim Andersen": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "César Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Ronald Araújo", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Miloš Kerkez", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joshua King": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Shea Charles": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Florian Wirtz vs Oscar Bobb). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0743, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9414, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9037, "home_midfield_factor": 1.028, "away_midfield_factor": 0.977, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7984, "away_avg_quality": 0.6317, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1667, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0253, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.1144, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.2527, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3779, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2079, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1209, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1398, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0798, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Fulham", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3779, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0995, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9722, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.424, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.981, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.4239, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9808, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.665, "final_away_lambda": 0.954 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6512, "attack_index": 2.499, "defense_concede_index": 1.458, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 3.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.75, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1312, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Liverpool vs Fulham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.424, Away 0.981). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.665, Away 0.954 (most likely score 2-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Fulham", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.665, "away_lambda": 0.954, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.424, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.981 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:39Z" }