{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0739, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0969, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0739 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0706 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0608 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0581 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.058 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0067, "0-1": 0.0078, "0-2": 0.0048, "0-3": 0.002, "0-4": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0249, "1-1": 0.0305, "1-2": 0.0184, "1-3": 0.0075, "1-4": 0.0023, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0477, "2-1": 0.058, "2-2": 0.0352, "2-3": 0.0143, "2-4": 0.0043, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0608, "3-1": 0.0739, "3-2": 0.0449, "3-3": 0.0182, "3-4": 0.0055, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0581, "4-1": 0.0706, "4-2": 0.0429, "4-3": 0.0174, "4-4": 0.0053, "4-5": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0444, "5-1": 0.0539, "5-2": 0.0328, "5-3": 0.0133, "5-4": 0.004, "5-5": 0.001, "6-0": 0.0283, "6-1": 0.0343, "6-2": 0.0209, "6-3": 0.0084, "6-4": 0.0026, "6-5": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0154, "7-1": 0.0187, "7-2": 0.0114, "7-3": 0.0046, "7-4": 0.0014, "8-0": 0.0074, "8-1": 0.009, "8-2": 0.0054, "8-3": 0.0022, "8-4": 0.0007, "9-0": 0.0031, "9-1": 0.0038, "9-2": 0.0023, "9-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8299, "draw": 0.0969, "away_win": 0.0732 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8776, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1224, "btts_yes": 0.6879, "btts_no": 0.3121, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2967, "away_clean_sheet": 0.022 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.18, "MCR": 7.47, "ATR": 7.85, "GK": 7.31 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.7, "MCR": 6.74, "ATR": 6.65, "GK": 7.51 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Chelsea vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): João Pedro (2), Pedro Neto, Oli McBurnie", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Morgan Rogers vs Elliot Stroud). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 3.821, "away_lambda": 1.215, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8299, "draw": 0.0969, "away_win": 0.0732 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8299, "fair_spread": 2.606, "fair_total": 5.036, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 3.821, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.215, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8776, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6879, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2967, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.022, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 1.4086, "probability": 0.7861, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Semi Ajayi (Hull)", "estimate": 0.5024, "probability": 0.2482, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Rogers (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.227, "probability": 0.2998, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ryan Giles (Hull)", "estimate": 0.0606, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.036, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 664, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.5, "possession_home_pct": 53.1, "possession_away_pct": 46.9, "notes": "Chelsea projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8299, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.61 goals and fair total 5.04.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on João Pedro against John Egan in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; Chelsea projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through João Pedro (2), Pedro Neto; bench watchlist: Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández.", "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Oli McBurnie; bench watchlist: Christos Mouzakitis, Robinio Vaz, Mohamed Ali Cho.", "Assist usage should flow through Morgan Rogers; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 2.52 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Chelsea": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "João Pedro": { "player_id": 975079, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 186, "market_value": 74000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.4086, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.22, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.663, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7861, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0582, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363257.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2265, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.627, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 173, "combined_rank_score": 148.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 275.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8494, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "João Pedro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Víctor Felipe Méndez", "ranking": 168 }, { "player_name": "Serhou Guirassy", "ranking": 169 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Hall", "ranking": 170 }, { "player_name": "Reinaldo", "ranking": 171 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Martínez", "ranking": 172 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dostonbek Khamdamov", "ranking": 174 }, { "player_name": "Deniz Undav", "ranking": 175 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Fernández", "ranking": 176 }, { "player_name": "Rey Manaj", "ranking": 177 }, { "player_name": "Seon-min Kim", "ranking": 178 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1128, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 1.0, "shots_per90": 4.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Chelsea, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 1.0, ast/90: 1.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2286, "goal_rate": 0.3436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.054, "minutes": 90, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 1.33, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.64, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1128, quality 0.876)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2543, "goal_rate": 0.3824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 4, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2543, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 4, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.22, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2543, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 4, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.22, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3444, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.22, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.663, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.82 (squad xG sum 0.9342, xG scale 4.0901)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.4086, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.4086, "goal_rate": 0.4158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.8494, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 13.3531, "dispossessed": 1.48, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, 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"season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 122, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 209.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.269, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.269, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.8948, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 171.0, "goals_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "assists_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "shots_per90": 3.16, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€105,000,000) applied for position M (quality factor 0.89); FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Chelsea, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 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"step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.227, "expected_goals": 0.5931, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 56, "ball_recovery": 7, "duels_won": 8, "rating": 7.5, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 11.3, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.1443, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.099, "ball_carries": 42, 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"Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6598, "expected_assists": 0.1303, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.283, "expected_assists": 0.1886, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 69, "combined_rank_score": 79.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 13.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.4, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 145.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 }, { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.269, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.269, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.89, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 172.0, "goals_per90": 1.0526315789473684, "assists_per90": 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2419.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7325, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nobel Mendy", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Brooke Norton-Cuffy", "ranking": 3288 }, { "player_name": "Brenden Aaronson", "ranking": 3289 }, { "player_name": "Guruzeta", "ranking": 3290 }, { "player_name": "Igor Matanović", "ranking": 3291 }, { "player_name": "Ionuț Andrei Radu", "ranking": 3292 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 } ] } }, 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4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7040, "combined_rank_score": 5366.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 261.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0909, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 10471.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4864, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Herrington", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Pratto", "ranking": 7035 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Bicalho", "ranking": 7036 }, { "player_name": "Léo Vieira", "ranking": 7037 }, { "player_name": "Peter Žulj", "ranking": 7038 }, { "player_name": "Caju", "ranking": 7039 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bernard Tekpetey", "ranking": 7041 }, { "player_name": "Jhojan Torres", "ranking": 7042 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Verdon", "ranking": 7043 }, { "player_name": "Alan Soñora", "ranking": 7044 }, { "player_name": "Diego Coelho", "ranking": 7045 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.445, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"player_name": "Alex Luna", "ranking": 4477 }, { "player_name": "Matt Crooks", "ranking": 4478 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Rivero", "ranking": 4479 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Franco Vázquez", "ranking": 4481 }, { "player_name": "Fraser Forster", "ranking": 4482 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Rey", "ranking": 4483 }, { "player_name": "Conan Ledesma", "ranking": 4484 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Santos Borré", "ranking": 4485 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.007630757726062, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5912559435330029, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6181, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,700,000) scaled to 26.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.295, "goal_rate": 0.19, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.107, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.225, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 6 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6875, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6875, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2338, xG scale 0.9848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0839, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6875, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0839, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6875, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Christos Mouzakitis": { "player_id": 1416540, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 178, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4143, "combined_rank_score": 2149.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3554.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christos Mouzakitis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Cardoso", "ranking": 4141 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Sánchez", "ranking": 4142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sammie Szmodics", "ranking": 4144 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Honsak", "ranking": 4145 }, { "player_name": "Dan Neil", "ranking": 4146 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking": 4147 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Petkov", "ranking": 4148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.95590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5434502969476606, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6858, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€26,000,000) scaled to 23.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.181, "expected_goals": 0.116, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 9.8, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 36, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2338, xG scale 0.9848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.22, "expected_assists": 0.36, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 250, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 6.78, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Roméo Lavia", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Lewie Coyle" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.553, "xg_contribution": 0.0562, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewie Coyle", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.447 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roméo Lavia (LWB) is slightly favored against Lewie Coyle in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 105000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "xg_contribution": 0.1839, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Stroud", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.396 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Elliot Stroud in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€105M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.594, "xg_contribution": 0.1817, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Stroud", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.406 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (CM) is slightly favored against Elliot Stroud in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "xg_contribution": 0.2089, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Giles", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (RWB) is slightly favored against Ryan Giles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.663, "xg_contribution": 0.3444, "shots_in_zone": 3.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 970000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.337 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (SS) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.344 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0168, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Neto", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedro Neto in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.017 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.416, "defenders": [ "Roméo Lavia" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "xg_contribution": 0.0574, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roméo Lavia", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.713 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Roméo Lavia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5100000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.463, "defenders": [ "Jorrel Hato" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.0401, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorrel Hato in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Stroud", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "xg_contribution": 0.0563, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Rogers", "role": "CM", "market_value": 105000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Stroud (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morgan Rogers in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €105M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Gourna-Douath", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.0246, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Rogers", "role": "CM", "market_value": 105000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Gourna-Douath (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morgan Rogers in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €105M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Jorrel Hato" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0752, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorrel Hato in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oli McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.748, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1978, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oli McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorrel Hato and Wesley Fofana in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.843, "away_midfield_power": 0.502, "home_creative_power": 0.829, "away_creative_power": 0.397, "home_defensive_power": 0.633, "away_defensive_power": 0.478, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.627, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer", "Roméo Lavia", "Pedro Neto" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Lucas Gourna-Douath", "Regan Slater", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Rogers vs Elliot Stroud", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.047, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.956 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.821, "away_lambda": 1.215, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "RWB vs LWB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RM vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Roméo Lavia": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle", "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Lucas Gourna-Douath" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Lucas Gourna-Douath" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "John Egan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jorrel Hato": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater", "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Wesley Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emiliano Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie", "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reece James": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Josh Acheampong": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Roméo Lavia" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Roméo Lavia" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Gourna-Douath": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oli McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Wesley Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Morgan Rogers vs Elliot Stroud). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.98, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9429, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9686, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.123, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.996, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8725, "home_midfield_factor": 1.047, "away_midfield_factor": 0.956, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.801, "away_avg_quality": 0.4639, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3371, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.2248, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.119, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.1922, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6943, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3819, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2222, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1082, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1024, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6943, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1786, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9406, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.242, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.292, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.2424, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2921, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.821, "final_away_lambda": 1.215 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6361, "attack_index": 3.332, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 0.981, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 4.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2834, "attack_index": 0.625, "defense_concede_index": 2.915, "form_multiplier": 1.019, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.5, "team_ppg": 2.33, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Chelsea vs Hull. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 3.242, Away 1.292). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.821, Away 1.215 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 8, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.821, "away_lambda": 1.215, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.242, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.292 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:29Z" }