{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0918, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Crystal Palace", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.238, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0918 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1089 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0779 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0743 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0668 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0471, "0-1": 0.0629, "0-2": 0.0437, "0-3": 0.02, "0-4": 0.0069, "0-5": 0.0019, "1-0": 0.0779, "1-1": 0.1089, "1-2": 0.0743, "1-3": 0.034, "1-4": 0.0117, "1-5": 0.0032, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0668, "2-1": 0.0918, "2-2": 0.063, "2-3": 0.0289, "2-4": 0.0099, "2-5": 0.0027, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0378, "3-1": 0.0519, "3-2": 0.0357, "3-3": 0.0163, "3-4": 0.0056, "3-5": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.016, "4-1": 0.022, "4-2": 0.0151, "4-3": 0.0069, "4-4": 0.0024, "4-5": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0054, "5-1": 0.0075, "5-2": 0.0051, "5-3": 0.0024, "5-4": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0015, "6-1": 0.0021, "6-2": 0.0015, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4512, "draw": 0.238, "away_win": 0.3108 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5927, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4073, "btts_yes": 0.611, "btts_no": 0.389, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2531, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1831 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.04, "MCR": 7.25, "ATR": 7.17, "GK": 7.43 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 7.09, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.24 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yéremy Pino, Tyrick Mitchell, Emersonn", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Exequiel Palacios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.374, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1089, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4512, "draw": 0.238, "away_win": 0.3108 }, "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4512, "fair_spread": 0.324, "fair_total": 3.072, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.698, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.374, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5927, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.611, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2531, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1831, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yéremy Pino (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.4051, "probability": 0.407, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Leif Davis (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.3723, "probability": 0.1653, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yéremy Pino (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1448, "probability": 0.1116, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1188, "probability": 0.1736, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.072, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 813, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.5, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4512, "script": "Crystal Palace is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.32 goals and fair total 3.07.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Crystal Palace lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Jørgen Strand Larsen against Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Yéremy Pino, Tyrick Mitchell; bench watchlist: Ismaïla Sarr, Dwight McNeil, Óscar Mingueza.", "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Emersonn; bench watchlist: Jack Clarke, Anis Mehmeti, Zian Flemming.", "Assist usage should flow through Adam Wharton, Abdul Fatawu Issahaku; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Crystal Palace tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.54 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Crystal Palace.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Dean Henderson": { "player_id": 788134, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.1892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.917 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3452 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 824, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 413.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9297, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4265, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9864, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 39, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.33, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 5.67, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0630, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.4265, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 41, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 6.0272, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.5, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 53.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.21, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Chris Richards": { "player_id": 931844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0695, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0081, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1160, "combined_rank_score": 512.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 688.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1909, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chris Richards", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vlad Chiricheş", "ranking": 1155 }, { "player_name": "Emil Krafth", "ranking": 1156 }, { "player_name": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "ranking": 1157 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Christensen", "ranking": 1158 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Collins", "ranking": 1159 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 }, { "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking": 1165 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0532, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0532, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0695, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1909, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 7.0248, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2106, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628, "opponent_faced": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0695, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0081, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "player_id": 876599, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2693, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0735, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2511, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2851, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2371, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sergio Canales", "ranking": 2846 }, { "player_name": "Josip Šutalo", "ranking": 2847 }, { "player_name": "Orlando Mosquera", "ranking": 2848 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Dimitrov", "ranking": 2849 }, { "player_name": "Manor Solomon", "ranking": 2850 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ulugbek Khoshimov", "ranking": 2852 }, { "player_name": "Kian Ronan", "ranking": 2853 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Richards", "ranking": 2854 }, { "player_name": "Cheick Doucouré", "ranking": 2855 }, { "player_name": "Pep Chavarría", "ranking": 2856 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.448, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.448, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0858, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1805, "goal_rate": 0.276, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6653, "minutes": 45, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 6.33, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.11, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0858, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.196, "goal_rate": 0.2997, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.196, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.196, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2693, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2693, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2693, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2693, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2371, "minutes": 49, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.873, "dispossessed": 2.1716, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 50.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0735, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Daichi Kamada": { "player_id": 794338, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 10300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.166, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2677, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1213, "combined_rank_score": 531.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 863.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.007, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daichi Kamada", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Žan Karničnik", "ranking": 1208 }, { "player_name": "Abdiel Ayarza", "ranking": 1209 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Șut", "ranking": 1210 }, { "player_name": "Christian Nørgaard", "ranking": 1211 }, { "player_name": "Omar Alderete", "ranking": 1212 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marc-André Ter Stegen", "ranking": 1214 }, { "player_name": "Estéban Lepaul", "ranking": 1215 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Jumaev", "ranking": 1216 }, { "player_name": "Ikboldzhon Malikdzhonov", "ranking": 1217 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Stefanelli", "ranking": 1218 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.395, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.395, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0078, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "rating": 6.9528, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0078, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0619)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.106, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "rating": 7.007, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 8, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.0623, "dispossessed": 2.0156, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.166, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Yéremy Pino": { "player_id": 984624, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 172, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4051, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1116, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2475, "expected_assists": 0.3046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0715, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1312, "combined_rank_score": 569.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 881.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1022, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 1316 }, { "player_name": "Pacha", "ranking": 1317 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.386, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.386, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0582, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 103.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.62, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2594, "goal_rate": 0.2186, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7114, "minutes": 78, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 15.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 46, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0582, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2745, "goal_rate": 0.2313, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0340)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2745, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2745, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2745, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4051, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4051, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4051, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4051, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1448, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1022, "minutes": 83, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 16.4027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1116, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "player_id": 988275, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 174, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5776, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1488, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6617, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1055, "expected_assists": 0.1591, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1865, "combined_rank_score": 721.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 574.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8053, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 868.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2298, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrick Mitchell", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ritsu Doan", "ranking": 1860 }, { "player_name": "Unai Elgezabal", "ranking": 1861 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Gyu", "ranking": 1862 }, { "player_name": "Amar Muhsin", "ranking": 1863 }, { "player_name": "Claudio González", "ranking": 1864 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bon-cheol Ku", "ranking": 1866 }, { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0479, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1207, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.11, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0479, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1265, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 2.0957, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1265, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1265, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1265, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5776, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "rating": 7.2298, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 12.5742, "dispossessed": 1.0479, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.9822, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.1631, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5776, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1488, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Quinten Timber": { "player_id": 959805, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1035, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1213, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1488, "combined_rank_score": 616.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0567, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Quinten Timber", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bojan Mlađović", "ranking": 1483 }, { "player_name": "Farkhod Sokhibzhonov", "ranking": 1484 }, { "player_name": "Florian Lejeune", "ranking": 1485 }, { "player_name": "Dimitrios Valkanis", "ranking": 1486 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Dorgu", "ranking": 1487 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jon Pacheco", "ranking": 1489 }, { "player_name": "Brahim Díaz", "ranking": 1490 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Assadi", "ranking": 1491 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 1492 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1493 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0701, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0701, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0701, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1035, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1035, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1035, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1035, "rating": 7.0567, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 7.3539, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1213, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Adam Wharton": { "player_id": 1109771, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 74000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0716, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1721, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.243, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 699, "combined_rank_score": 336.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 288.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0559, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.7257, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adam Wharton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eui-jeong Park", "ranking": 694 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-min Kim", "ranking": 695 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Lewis", "ranking": 696 }, { "player_name": "Lasha Dvali", "ranking": 697 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajdarević", "ranking": 698 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ji-ung Baek", "ranking": 700 }, { "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking": 701 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Villagra", "ranking": 702 }, { "player_name": "Bo-seob Kim", "ranking": 703 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Retegui", "ranking": 704 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1128, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.064, "rating": 6.9428, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 13.33, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1128, quality 0.876)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0716, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "rating": 7.7257, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 14.8331, "dispossessed": 2.2255, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0716, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1721, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Anan Khalaili": { "player_id": 1403362, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 183, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1554, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1527, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7169, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 10, "tackles_won": 7, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 15, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1553, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1405, "combined_rank_score": 580.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1070.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2213, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rayan", "ranking": 1400 }, { "player_name": "Amir Rrahmani", "ranking": 1401 }, { "player_name": "Josep Chavarría", "ranking": 1402 }, { "player_name": "Abde", "ranking": 1403 }, { "player_name": "Troy Parrott", "ranking": 1404 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Guillermo May", "ranking": 1406 }, { "player_name": "Pubill", "ranking": 1407 }, { "player_name": "Bozhidar Kraev", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Talisca", "ranking": 1410 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.387, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.387, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 110.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.82, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0794, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1002, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 11, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 4, "tackles": 6, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0371)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.64 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1554, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1554, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1554, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1554, "rating": 7.2213, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 12, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 12.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 5, "tackles": 7, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.8333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1527, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "player_id": 1471671, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0778, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0469, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0108, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 77, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3179, "combined_rank_score": 1146.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 526.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8368, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1767.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.042, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 }, { "player_name": "Franco Mastantuono", "ranking": 3181 }, { "player_name": "Altay Bayındır", "ranking": 3182 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 3183 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Arnar Haraldsson", "ranking": 3184 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0532, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6863, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 41, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 8.67, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.05, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 117, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0532, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0778, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0778, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0778, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0469, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 9.1312, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0778, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 123, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0469, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0108, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Axel Disasi": { "player_id": 827243, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3065, "combined_rank_score": 1028.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 1415.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8785, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Axel Disasi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marco Palestra", "ranking": 3060 }, { "player_name": "Michael Gregoritsch", "ranking": 3061 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Pepi", "ranking": 3062 }, { "player_name": "Joakim Mæhle", "ranking": 3063 }, { "player_name": "Jarell Quansah", "ranking": 3064 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 3067 }, { "player_name": "Amine Adli", "ranking": 3068 }, { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.377, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.377, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0254, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 53, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0254, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8785, "minutes": 54, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.1523, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Walter Benítez": { "player_id": 249859, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 193, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0226, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0148, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.118, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.43, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1653, "combined_rank_score": 672.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1087.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 }, { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Khumoyun Sherbutaev", "ranking": 1654 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonchbek Khushvaktov", "ranking": 1655 }, { "player_name": "Florian Grillitsch", "ranking": 1656 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Labyad", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Odriozola", "ranking": 1658 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.426629422541287, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.11030133738824033, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4461, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€3,700,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.45)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.46, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.46, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0226, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0148, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.118, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.43 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0226, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0148, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.118, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.43 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0226, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0148, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.118, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.43, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Honest Ahanor": { "player_id": 1634980, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 184, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.2422, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3729, "combined_rank_score": 1714.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 637.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7556, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 2791.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Honest Ahanor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Facundo Bernal", "ranking": 3724 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking": 3725 }, { "player_name": "Veljko Birmančević", "ranking": 3726 }, { "player_name": "Jay DaSilva", "ranking": 3727 }, { "player_name": "Oskar Pietuszewski", "ranking": 3728 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 3730 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Carvalho", "ranking": 3731 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Buonanotte", "ranking": 3732 }, { "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking": 3733 }, { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 3734 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.710658378070402, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3504844717304728, "market_value_adjustment": 0.7249, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€31,000,000) scaled to 14.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.72)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 41, "expected_goals": 0.023, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 7.6, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 6 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 14.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.2422, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.2422, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "expected_goals": 0.0038, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 15, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.2422, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "player_id": 870360, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 183, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 30.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363638.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2264, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 604, "combined_rank_score": 311.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 247.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.12, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 376.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0156, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daniel Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Zabelin", "ranking": 599 }, { "player_name": "Álex Berenguer", "ranking": 600 }, { "player_name": "Nonato", "ranking": 601 }, { "player_name": "Charles De Ketelaere", "ranking": 602 }, { "player_name": "Andrej Kramarić", "ranking": 603 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nemanja Ćalasan", "ranking": 605 }, { "player_name": "Sardorbek Bakhromov", "ranking": 606 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Parot", "ranking": 607 }, { "player_name": "Vangelis Pavlidis", "ranking": 608 }, { "player_name": "Gavi", "ranking": 609 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.319, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.319, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45166323111848, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.235, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0479, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6953, "minutes": 31, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.03, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0479, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 32, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.2393, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 32, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.2393, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 30.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.33 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 30.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 30.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0156, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 30.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Dwight McNeil": { "player_id": 935543, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 183, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3339, "combined_rank_score": 1290.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1788.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dwight McNeil", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oleksandr Zubkov", "ranking": 3334 }, { "player_name": "Steven Bergwijn", "ranking": 3335 }, { "player_name": "Marshall Munetsi", "ranking": 3336 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Girotto", "ranking": 3337 }, { "player_name": "Martin Vitík", "ranking": 3338 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Houssem Aouar", "ranking": 3340 }, { "player_name": "Musa Barrow", "ranking": 3341 }, { "player_name": "Mailson", "ranking": 3342 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Blanco", "ranking": 3343 }, { "player_name": "Mourad Batna", "ranking": 3344 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.259, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.259, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.514, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6191, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 23.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.06 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,800,000) scaled to 22.9 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 23.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.18 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 896, "combined_rank_score": 419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 419.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9242, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 }, { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 }, { "player_name": "Do-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 899 }, { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.252, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.252, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.707, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6181, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,700,000) scaled to 19.0 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 89, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 89, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1187, "combined_rank_score": 523.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 542.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.825, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking": 1185 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.710848356448757, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6232203798385798, "market_value_adjustment": 0.7957, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€43,000,000) scaled to 26.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.80)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.362, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.131, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 10.6, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.279, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 7 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "player_id": 848276, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 192, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.8689, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6981, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1324, "combined_rank_score": 575.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 644.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7469, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 506.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0649, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azzedine Ounahi", "ranking": 1319 }, { "player_name": "Noussair Mazraoui", "ranking": 1320 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Chamorro", "ranking": 1321 }, { "player_name": "Beka Mikeltadze", "ranking": 1322 }, { "player_name": "Fornals", "ranking": 1323 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Brahim", "ranking": 1325 }, { "player_name": "Diego Llorente", "ranking": 1326 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Mechele", "ranking": 1327 }, { "player_name": "De Frutos", "ranking": 1328 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rueda", "ranking": 1329 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.32, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.32, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37159379857936, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.356, "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1411, "goal_rate": 0.2099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6462, "minutes": 63, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0630, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1499, "goal_rate": 0.2231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 67, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 6.378, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0253)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1499, "goal_rate": 0.2175, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 67, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 6.378, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.9 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.8689, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.8689, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0649, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.8689, "dispossessed": 1.063, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 34.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 896, "combined_rank_score": 419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 419.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9242, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 }, { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 }, { "player_name": "Do-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 899 }, { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.252, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.252, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.707, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6181, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,700,000) scaled to 19.0 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 89, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 89, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 19, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9644, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1187, "combined_rank_score": 523.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 542.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.825, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking": 1185 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.710848356448757, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6232203798385798, "market_value_adjustment": 0.7957, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€43,000,000) scaled to 26.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.80)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.362, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.131, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 10.6, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.279, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 7 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1459, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Dwight McNeil": { "player_id": 935543, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 183, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3339, "combined_rank_score": 1290.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1788.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dwight McNeil", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oleksandr Zubkov", "ranking": 3334 }, { "player_name": "Steven Bergwijn", "ranking": 3335 }, { "player_name": "Marshall Munetsi", "ranking": 3336 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Girotto", "ranking": 3337 }, { "player_name": "Martin Vitík", "ranking": 3338 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Houssem Aouar", "ranking": 3340 }, { "player_name": "Musa Barrow", "ranking": 3341 }, { "player_name": "Mailson", "ranking": 3342 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Blanco", "ranking": 3343 }, { "player_name": "Mourad Batna", "ranking": 3344 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.259, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.259, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.514, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6191, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 23.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.06 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,800,000) scaled to 22.9 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 23.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.18 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1505, xG scale 1.4759)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3622, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0195, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.514, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.86, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.7, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 427, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 25, "avg_rating": 7.19, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } }, "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Emersonn": { "player_id": 1128844, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2956, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0681, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2156, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8201, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3501, "combined_rank_score": 1483.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2674.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7647, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emersonn", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Baptiste Santamaria", "ranking": 3496 }, { "player_name": "Quentin Merlin", "ranking": 3497 }, { "player_name": "Eddie Nketiah", "ranking": 3498 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Acuña", "ranking": 3499 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Ngoy", "ranking": 3500 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sebastian Nanasi", "ranking": 3502 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Bueno", "ranking": 3503 }, { "player_name": "Vanderson", "ranking": 3504 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Masuaku", "ranking": 3505 }, { "player_name": "Mario Götze", "ranking": 3506 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.45, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.45, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9985, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 110.0, "goals_per90": 0.8333333333333334, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.45, "shots_on_target_pct": 66.7, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.8333333333333334, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2159, "goal_rate": 0.1959, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7747, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.0, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2156, "goal_rate": 0.1956, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0325)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2156, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2156, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.139, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2956, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.2163, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 59, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.9911, "dispossessed": 0.9985, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.9985, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2956, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0681, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Daizen Maeda": { "player_id": 832420, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 173, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0937, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6091, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3077, "combined_rank_score": 1044.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 982.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1107.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.267, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.267, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.5525, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 151.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.19, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€12,600,000) applied for position F (quality factor 0.55); FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.27, "goal_rate": 0.17, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0736)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.27, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.79 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.27, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0937, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Julio Enciso": { "player_id": 973556, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2301, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1534, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2372, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.3131, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2314, "expected_assists": 0.3114, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1497, "combined_rank_score": 619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1147.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2402, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 1492 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1493 }, { "player_name": "Yerco Oyanedel", "ranking": 1494 }, { "player_name": "Bekhruz Karimov", "ranking": 1495 }, { "player_name": "Ermedin Demirović", "ranking": 1496 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking": 1498 }, { "player_name": "Jerdy Schouten", "ranking": 1499 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-je Kang", "ranking": 1500 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Alonso", "ranking": 1501 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Vargas", "ranking": 1502 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 160.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.1111111111111112, "shots_per90": 3.38, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 1.1111111111111112)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2023, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 11.33, "dispossessed": 3.5, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.48, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2125, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0488)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2125, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.69 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2125, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2125, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2301, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2301, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2301, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2301, "rating": 7.2402, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 11.9028, "dispossessed": 3.677, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5043, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 5, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1534, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "player_id": 1103589, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 180, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0486, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1736, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 685, "combined_rank_score": 360.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9834, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iván Ramírez", "ranking": 680 }, { "player_name": "Khellven", "ranking": 681 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gallese", "ranking": 682 }, { "player_name": "Erick Pulgar", "ranking": 683 }, { "player_name": "Andraž Šporar", "ranking": 684 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kahiser Lenis", "ranking": 686 }, { "player_name": "Oleksandr Zinchenko", "ranking": 687 }, { "player_name": "Germán Valera", "ranking": 688 }, { "player_name": "Adrià Altimira", "ranking": 689 }, { "player_name": "Kepa Arrizabalaga", "ranking": 690 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.454, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0422, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 147.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.625, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.625)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "rating": 6.7005, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 17.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 96, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0422, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.45 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0486, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9834, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 17.718, "dispossessed": 2.0845, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.625, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0486, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1736, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "player_id": 822600, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 177, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1463, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 340, "combined_rank_score": 225.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 164.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.28, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 287.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2866, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Exequiel Palacios", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 }, { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 }, { "player_name": "Steven Benda", "ranking": 338 }, { "player_name": "Iker Monreal Agundez", "ranking": 339 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Locatelli", "ranking": 341 }, { "player_name": "Zafarmurod Abdurakhmatov", "ranking": 342 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Requena", "ranking": 343 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jong-Eon", "ranking": 344 }, { "player_name": "Julian Ryerson", "ranking": 345 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.378, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.378, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0558, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 53, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 7.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0558, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.1 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "rating": 7.2866, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 7.9181, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Adam Wharton, Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0178, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1463, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Saša Lukić": { "player_id": 371222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 183, "market_value": 9400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1539, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2651, "combined_rank_score": 929.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 761.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6538, "sofascore_appearances": 26.0, "fifa_rank": 1098.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8648, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Saša Lukić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abdulazizkhon Abdurashidov", "ranking": 2646 }, { "player_name": "Pau López", "ranking": 2647 }, { "player_name": "Orbelín Pineda", "ranking": 2648 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Jiménez", "ranking": 2649 }, { "player_name": "Ilaix Moriba", "ranking": 2650 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Basil Tuma", "ranking": 2652 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Recalde", "ranking": 2653 }, { "player_name": "Mauricio", "ranking": 2654 }, { "player_name": "Luca Sosa", "ranking": 2655 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Ramirez", "ranking": 2656 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0046, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 162.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 0.56, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 8.67, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.515)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0488)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.11 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 8.71, "dispossessed": 1.0046, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5556, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 90.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1539, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Leif Davis": { "player_id": 963493, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 182, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3723, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0729, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.1184, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5369, "expected_assists": 0.1247, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3456, "combined_rank_score": 1452.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2207.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8277, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking": 3451 }, { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 3453 }, { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ismaëlo Ganiou", "ranking": 3457 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Giroud", "ranking": 3458 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking": 3459 }, { "player_name": "Eric Dier", "ranking": 3460 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 3461 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0422, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.551, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 13.0, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.33, "expected_assists": 0.08, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.95, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0422, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0422, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3723, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3723, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3723, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8277, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 13.549, "dispossessed": 1.5633, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0128, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3723, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.9901, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0729, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Jacob Greaves": { "player_id": 990821, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 193, "market_value": 13400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3849, "combined_rank_score": 1842.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1003.0, "sofascore_rating": 5.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7433, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jacob Greaves", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abner Vinícius", "ranking": 3844 }, { "player_name": "Saša Kalajdžić", "ranking": 3845 }, { "player_name": "Matthis Abline", "ranking": 3846 }, { "player_name": "Ander Guevara", "ranking": 3847 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Pagis", "ranking": 3848 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martial Godo", "ranking": 3850 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Kędziora", "ranking": 3851 }, { "player_name": "Kévin Danois", "ranking": 3852 }, { "player_name": "Gauthier Hein", "ranking": 3853 }, { "player_name": "Keito Nakamura", "ranking": 3854 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0185, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 5.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.562)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.7746, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Issa Diop": { "player_id": 825719, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 194, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0484, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0335, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 42, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3540, "combined_rank_score": 1507.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 2193.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8299, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Israel Reyes", "ranking": 3535 }, { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 3536 }, { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 }, { "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking": 3539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Senne Lynen", "ranking": 3541 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Camello", "ranking": 3542 }, { "player_name": "Mio Backhaus", "ranking": 3543 }, { "player_name": "Jindřich Staněk", "ranking": 3544 }, { "player_name": "Janis Blaswich", "ranking": 3545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8276, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0484, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.8299, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0026, "dispossessed": 1.0003, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0484, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0335, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Dara O'Shea": { "player_id": 856719, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 17000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0344, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0685, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3231, "combined_rank_score": 1176.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 2195.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8294, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dara O'Shea", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel James", "ranking": 3226 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Lucumí", "ranking": 3227 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Silva", "ranking": 3228 }, { "player_name": "Femi Azeez", "ranking": 3229 }, { "player_name": "Bilal El Khannouss", "ranking": 3230 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carney Chukwuemeka", "ranking": 3232 }, { "player_name": "Raphael Onyedika", "ranking": 3233 }, { "player_name": "Vladyslav Vanat", "ranking": 3234 }, { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0302, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6294, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.06, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0302, quality 0.601)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0344, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8294, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 13.3922, "dispossessed": 1.0302, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0344, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0685, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "player_id": 852394, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 205, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.0564 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.3024 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2677, "combined_rank_score": 935.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2375, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kjell Scherpen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanislav Shopov", "ranking": 2672 }, { "player_name": "Lim Hyung-jin", "ranking": 2673 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Quaresma", "ranking": 2674 }, { "player_name": "Marco Friedl", "ranking": 2675 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Yong-hee", "ranking": 2676 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9985, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1187, "rating": 7.2482, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.5, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.0, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1185, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 1.4978, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.9808, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 7.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 57.1, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.94, "high_pressure_saves": 0.36, "shots_faced": 2.0, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Christian Walton": { "player_id": 198038, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 196, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3741, "combined_rank_score": 1736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3262.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 }, { "player_name": "Michel Aebischer", "ranking": 3737 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Borré", "ranking": 3738 }, { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 }, { "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking": 3744 }, { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,600,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Darnell Furlong": { "player_id": 786022, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4135, "combined_rank_score": 2132.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1001.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5557, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isac Lidberg", "ranking": 4130 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Pedersen", "ranking": 4131 }, { "player_name": "Tyrique George", "ranking": 4132 }, { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 16.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6811, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.9061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.9061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Cédric Kipré": { "player_id": 886802, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 196, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3451, "combined_rank_score": 1448.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2678.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 }, { "player_name": "Iván Romero", "ranking": 3447 }, { "player_name": "Josh Acheampong", "ranking": 3448 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Yates", "ranking": 3449 }, { "player_name": "Scott McKenna", "ranking": 3450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 3453 }, { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 }, { "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking": 3456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,800,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Jack Clarke": { "player_id": 921005, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1025, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3162, "combined_rank_score": 1128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2204.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.252, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.252, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.708, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 5.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 21.2 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.171, "expected_goals": 0.11, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 47, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.074, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 91, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.171, "expected_goals": 0.11, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 47, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.074, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 91, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 21.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "player_id": 1014461, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 181, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3448, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 82, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 140.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking": 81 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Valdívia", "ranking": 83 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 84 }, { "player_name": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 85 }, { "player_name": "Arturo Vidal", "ranking": 86 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ranking": 87 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69163464336888, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.531437938334949, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6191, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,800,000) scaled to 22.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.166, "expected_goals": 0.107, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.072, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3448, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3448, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.3448, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Anis Mehmeti": { "player_id": 1007072, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 180, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4047, "combined_rank_score": 2033.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3950.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anis Mehmeti", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Ocampos", "ranking": 4042 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Idrissi", "ranking": 4043 }, { "player_name": "Diego Lainez", "ranking": 4044 }, { "player_name": "John Yeboah", "ranking": 4045 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Gorriarán", "ranking": 4046 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedro Vite", "ranking": 4048 }, { "player_name": "Luke O'Nien", "ranking": 4049 }, { "player_name": "Luís Esteves", "ranking": 4050 }, { "player_name": "Alexandre Lacazette", "ranking": 4051 }, { "player_name": "Abderrazak Hamdallah", "ranking": 4052 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.83622887942596, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5834649490648164, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5748, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€14,600,000) scaled to 25.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.278, "goal_rate": 0.18, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 9.0, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.212, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Zian Flemming": { "player_id": 875137, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 183, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3238, "combined_rank_score": 1182.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 553.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8172, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 1811.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8227, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raphael Onyedika", "ranking": 3233 }, { "player_name": "Vladyslav Vanat", "ranking": 3234 }, { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.747858270283267, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.579448103194694, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0157, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.58)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1019, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 24, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.01, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.552)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goal_rate": 0.0941, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 24, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 4.063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0296, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0296, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jack Clarke": { "player_id": 921005, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1025, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3162, "combined_rank_score": 1128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2204.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.252, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.252, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.708, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 5.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 21.2 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.171, "expected_goals": 0.11, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 47, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.08, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.074, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 91, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.171, "expected_goals": 0.11, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 47, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1225, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.074, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 91, "progressive_carries": 8, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 21.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 21, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.2431, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.708, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Darnell Furlong": { "player_id": 786022, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4135, "combined_rank_score": 2132.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1001.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5557, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isac Lidberg", "ranking": 4130 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Pedersen", "ranking": 4131 }, { "player_name": "Tyrique George", "ranking": 4132 }, { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 16.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6811, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.9061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.9061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5557, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 10.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Anis Mehmeti": { "player_id": 1007072, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 180, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4047, "combined_rank_score": 2033.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3950.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anis Mehmeti", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Ocampos", "ranking": 4042 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Idrissi", "ranking": 4043 }, { "player_name": "Diego Lainez", "ranking": 4044 }, { "player_name": "John Yeboah", "ranking": 4045 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Gorriarán", "ranking": 4046 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedro Vite", "ranking": 4048 }, { "player_name": "Luke O'Nien", "ranking": 4049 }, { "player_name": "Luís Esteves", "ranking": 4050 }, { "player_name": "Alexandre Lacazette", "ranking": 4051 }, { "player_name": "Abderrazak Hamdallah", "ranking": 4052 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.83622887942596, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5834649490648164, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5748, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€14,600,000) scaled to 25.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.278, "goal_rate": 0.18, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 9.0, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.212, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5836, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0609, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Zian Flemming": { "player_id": 875137, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 183, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363261.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3238, "combined_rank_score": 1182.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 553.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8172, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 1811.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8227, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raphael Onyedika", "ranking": 3233 }, { "player_name": "Vladyslav Vanat", "ranking": 3234 }, { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.747858270283267, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.579448103194694, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0157, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.58)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1019, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 24, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.01, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.552)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1035, "goal_rate": 0.0941, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 24, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 4.063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0102, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0296, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0296, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2691, xG scale 1.0827)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8227, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.1624, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0029, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.003, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.37, "expected_assists": 0.73, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 386, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.96, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Jacob Greaves" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.624, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "xg_contribution": 0.1825, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 }, { "player": "Jacob Greaves", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Exequiel Palacios and Jacob Greaves in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.601, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "xg_contribution": 0.0612, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "RB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Dara O'Shea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.1181, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Leif Davis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "xg_contribution": 0.0852, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.444 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.0897, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Chris Richards in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.1716, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.139, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards and Jaydee Canvot in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.174, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards and Jaydee Canvot in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.73, "away_midfield_power": 0.653, "home_creative_power": 0.564, "away_creative_power": 0.517, "home_defensive_power": 0.702, "away_defensive_power": 0.585, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.528, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Daichi Kamada", "Tyrick Mitchell", "Quinten Timber", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Julio Enciso", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Exequiel Palacios", "Saša Lukić" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Adam Wharton vs Exequiel Palacios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.005, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.983 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.374, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Jacob Greaves" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Emersonn", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Quinten Timber": { "opponents": [ "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda", "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Axel Disasi": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yéremy Pino": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Leif Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Saša Lukić": { "opponents": [ "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "opponents": [ "Yéremy Pino", "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Exequiel Palacios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.987, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9542, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.948, "home_midfield_factor": 1.005, "away_midfield_factor": 0.983, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6818, "away_avg_quality": 0.5862, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0956, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.5622, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5291, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.7455, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1951, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1073, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0624, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1332, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1141, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.698, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.374, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6982, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3741, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.698, "final_away_lambda": 1.374 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.5327, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.5327, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 3.332, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 4.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.698, Away 1.374). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.698, Away 1.374 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.374, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.698, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.374 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:28Z" }