{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Forest", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1366, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3108, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0702 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1363, "0-1": 0.1313, "0-2": 0.0652, "0-3": 0.0214, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1363, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.0665, "1-3": 0.0218, "1-4": 0.0054, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0702, "2-1": 0.069, "2-2": 0.0339, "2-3": 0.0111, "2-4": 0.0027, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0239, "3-1": 0.0235, "3-2": 0.0115, "3-3": 0.0038, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0061, "4-1": 0.006, "4-2": 0.0029, "4-3": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3543, "draw": 0.3108, "away_win": 0.3349 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3241, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6759, "btts_yes": 0.4015, "btts_no": 0.5985, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3742, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 7.77 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.16, "MCR": 7.17, "ATR": 7.16, "GK": 6.86 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Aston Villa vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nicolas Jackson, Liam Delap", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Boubacar Kamara vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.983, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3543, "draw": 0.3108, "away_win": 0.3349 }, "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3543, "fair_spread": 0.037, "fair_total": 2.003, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 0.983, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3241, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4015, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3742, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.2095, "probability": 0.364, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Murillo (Forest)", "estimate": 0.1562, "probability": 0.058, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ian Maatsen (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.1485, "probability": 0.0597, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.221, "probability": 0.3002, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.003, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 863, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3543, "script": "Aston Villa is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.04 goals and fair total 2.00.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Aston Villa lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Nicolas Jackson against Murillo, Jair in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Nicolas Jackson; bench watchlist: Ibrahim Mbaye, Matteo Ruggeri, Alejandro Garnacho.", "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Liam Delap; bench watchlist: Callum Hudson Odoi, Igor Jesus, Arnaud Kalimuendo.", "Assist usage should flow through Emiliano Buendía, Morgan Gibbs-White; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Aston Villa tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.00 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Aston Villa.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Aston Villa": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Nicolas Jackson": { "player_id": 1085381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2095, "goal_rate": 0.1488, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo, Jair", "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Jair", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.099, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363262.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2356, "expected_assists": 0.4392, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1269, "combined_rank_score": 551.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 224.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1571, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 879.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1144, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 }, { "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking": 1266 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Gavi", "ranking": 1272 }, { "player_name": "Martin Boakye", "ranking": 1273 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Caseres", "ranking": 1274 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.383, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.383, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0826, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 70.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.292, "goal_rate": 0.141, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.5714, "minutes": 78, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0826, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3161, "goal_rate": 0.1526, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0247)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3161, "goal_rate": 0.1488, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.29 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3161, "goal_rate": 0.1488, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2227, "goal_rate": 0.1488, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo, Jair", "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Jair", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0844, xG scale 0.9406)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2095, "goal_rate": 0.1488, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1144, "minutes": 84, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 30, "progressive_carries": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo, Jair", "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Jair", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match 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"Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 758, "combined_rank_score": 367.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 49.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 685.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Neco Williams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.98 (squad xG sum 1.1724, xG scale 0.8385)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 0.98, "expected_assists": 0.91, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 443, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 7.14, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "John McGinn", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.279, "xg_contribution": 0.132, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 } ], "duel_analysis": "John McGinn (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.058, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (CAM) is evenly matched against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €67M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emiliano Buendía", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.269, "xg_contribution": 0.1223, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.731 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emiliano Buendía (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Jair" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.703, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.2227, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 }, { "player": "Jair", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Murillo and Jair in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "George Hemmings", "Pau Torres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.1707, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "George Hemmings", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 860000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 }, { "player": "Pau Torres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against George Hemmings and Pau Torres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.1008, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (LWB) is evenly matched against Victor Lindelöf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 9500000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.517, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.044, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "LB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ian Maatsen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "George Hemmings" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.411, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "xg_contribution": 0.1802, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "George Hemmings", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 860000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.389 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against George Hemmings in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€67M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.180 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.602, "away_midfield_power": 0.722, "home_creative_power": 0.492, "away_creative_power": 0.723, "home_defensive_power": 0.496, "away_defensive_power": 0.553, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.455, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "George Hemmings", "John McGinn", "Ross Barkley", "Boubacar Kamara", "Emiliano Buendía" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Dan Ndoye", "James McAtee", "Xaver Schlager", "Daniel Muñoz", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Boubacar Kamara vs Morgan Gibbs-White", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.986, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.023 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.983, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emiliano Buendía": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Jair" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "George Hemmings": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Torres": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ross Barkley": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Matty Cash": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn", "Emiliano Buendía", "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "George Hemmings" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jair": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "George Hemmings", "Pau Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Victor Lindelöf", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Emiliano Buendía" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "George Hemmings" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Ross Barkley" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nikola Milenković": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Boubacar Kamara vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.54, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1263, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.914, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9508, "home_midfield_factor": 0.986, "away_midfield_factor": 1.023, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5966, "away_avg_quality": 0.6822, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0856, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4371, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2874, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4232, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1585, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0872, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0507, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1351, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0971, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.976, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.983, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9761, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9831, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 0.983 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8284, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.981, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.67 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9488, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.019, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 0.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Aston Villa vs Forest. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.976, Away 0.983). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 0.983 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 8, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.983, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.976, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.983 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:30:18Z" }