{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260912", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "4-1", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0708, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.076, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0708 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.066 }, { "score": "5-1", "probability": 0.0607 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0587 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0548 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0042, "0-1": 0.0049, "0-2": 0.003, "0-3": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0178, "1-1": 0.0216, "1-2": 0.013, "1-3": 0.0052, "1-4": 0.0016, "2-0": 0.0383, "2-1": 0.0462, "2-2": 0.0278, "2-3": 0.0112, "2-4": 0.0034, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0548, "3-1": 0.066, "3-2": 0.0398, "3-3": 0.016, "3-4": 0.0048, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0587, "4-1": 0.0708, "4-2": 0.0426, "4-3": 0.0171, "4-4": 0.0052, "4-5": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0504, "5-1": 0.0607, "5-2": 0.0366, "5-3": 0.0147, "5-4": 0.0044, "5-5": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.036, "6-1": 0.0434, "6-2": 0.0261, "6-3": 0.0105, "6-4": 0.0032, "6-5": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0221, "7-1": 0.0266, "7-2": 0.016, "7-3": 0.0064, "7-4": 0.0019, "8-0": 0.0118, "8-1": 0.0143, "8-2": 0.0086, "8-3": 0.0034, "8-4": 0.001, "9-0": 0.0056, "9-1": 0.0068, "9-2": 0.0041, "9-3": 0.0016 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8705, "draw": 0.076, "away_win": 0.0535 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.9101, "under_2_5_goals": 0.0899, "btts_yes": 0.6907, "btts_no": 0.3093, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2997, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0139 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.24, "MCR": 7.58, "ATR": 8.01, "GK": 7.09 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.7, "MCR": 6.68, "ATR": 7.49, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 4-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (3), Vinícius Júnior, Sergio Camello", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Pedro Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 4.289, "away_lambda": 1.205, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8705, "draw": 0.076, "away_win": 0.0535 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8705, "fair_spread": 3.084, "fair_total": 5.494, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 4.289, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.205, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.9101, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6907, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2997, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0139, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.583, "probability": 0.9119, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.3769, "probability": 0.4996, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1911, "probability": 0.2308, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Unai López (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.122, "probability": 0.1739, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.494, "expected_total_shots": 41, "expected_total_passes": 819, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.5, "possession_home_pct": 54.1, "possession_away_pct": 45.9, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8705, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +3.08 goals and fair total 5.49.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 20 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Rayo Vallecano must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Florian Lejeune, Andrei Rațiu in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (3), Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Yan Diomande, Rodrygo.", "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Jorge de Frutos, Alemão, Giorgi Tsitaishvili.", "Assist usage should flow through Jude Bellingham, Unai López; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 20 total first-half shots, and 2.75 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Rayo Vallecano is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Rayo Vallecano wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 212000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.583, "goal_rate": 1.0854, "goals": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.095, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.5135, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 5, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 13.7199, "dispossessed": 2.24, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.7808, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 162, "progressive_carries": 8, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 58.3, "shotConversion": 0.17, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.67, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Florian Lejeune, Andrei Rațiu", "opponent_faced": "Florian Lejeune, Andrei Rațiu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 3, "goal_probability": 0.9119, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0742, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416315.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.779, "expected_assists": 0.3907, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0136, "expected_assists": 0.2003, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051.0, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6713, "expected_assists": 0.1673, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 10.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.5135, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.12, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 8.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 58.3, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6841, "goal_rate": 0.9519, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.6014, "minutes": 90, "total_shots": 8, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 12.25, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.59, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 145, "progressive_carries": 7 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1200, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7662, "goal_rate": 1.0661, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.095, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.5135, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 9, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 13.7199, "dispossessed": 2.24, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.7808, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 162, "progressive_carries": 8 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7662, "goal_rate": 1.0854, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.095, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.5135, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 9, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 13.7199, "dispossessed": 2.24, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.7808, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 162, "progressive_carries": 8, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 58.3, "shotConversion": 0.17, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.67 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7662, "goal_rate": 1.0854, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.095, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 8.5135, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 9, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 13.7199, "dispossessed": 2.24, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 5, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.7808, "offsides": 1, 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0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97222218756125, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.4987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,700,000) scaled to 22.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.126, "expected_goals": 0.081, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.06, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 6 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 0.8927, xG scale 1.3498)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.21, "expected_assists": 0.6, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 302, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Emil Audero" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.0931, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emil Audero", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LW) is slightly favored against Emil Audero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.42, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.696, "xg_contribution": 0.1939, "shots_in_zone": 3.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.304 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 70%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.509, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "xg_contribution": 0.6851, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 }, { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Florian Lejeune and Andrei Rațiu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.685 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Eduardo Camavinga", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.625, "xg_contribution": 0.0486, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.375 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eduardo Camavinga (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.2792, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonio Rüdiger in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.279 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.245, "xg_contribution": 0.0234, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eduardo Camavinga", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Eduardo Camavinga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.023 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.225, "xg_contribution": 0.0392, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eduardo Camavinga", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.775 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Eduardo Camavinga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.836, "away_midfield_power": 0.497, "home_creative_power": 0.916, "away_creative_power": 0.385, "home_defensive_power": 0.716, "away_defensive_power": 0.382, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.627, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Eduardo Camavinga", "Bernardo Silva" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López", "Álvaro García", "Pedro Díaz", "Gnangoro Bouaré", "Óscar Valentín" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 54.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 45.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.3, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Jude Bellingham vs Pedro Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.057, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.951 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 4.289, "away_lambda": 1.205, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Emil Audero", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Andrei Rațiu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Eduardo Camavinga": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Gnangoro Bouaré" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Rüdiger": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Óscar Valentín" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Trent Alexander-Arnold": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Álvaro Carreras": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Andrei Rațiu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Óscar Valentín": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gnangoro Bouaré": { "opponents": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Pedro Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9954, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9023, "home_midfield_factor": 1.057, "away_midfield_factor": 0.951, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8076, "away_avg_quality": 0.4425, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3651, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.954, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.8674, "attack_value_gap_log": 3.3431, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.8409, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4625, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2691, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1297, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0639, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.8409, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.2152, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9259, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.529, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.301, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.5285, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.301, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 4.289, "final_away_lambda": 1.205 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6502, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.051, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9532, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.949, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 3.529, Away 1.301). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 4.289, Away 1.205 (most likely score 4-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 4.289, "away_lambda": 1.205, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.529, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.301 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:31:00Z" }