{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atl. Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1159, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atl. Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2524, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1159 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1201 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0949 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.093 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0742 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0742, "0-1": 0.1159, "0-2": 0.093, "0-3": 0.0494, "0-4": 0.0197, "0-5": 0.0063, "0-6": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.0739, "1-1": 0.1201, "1-2": 0.0949, "1-3": 0.0504, "1-4": 0.0201, "1-5": 0.0064, "1-6": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0381, "2-1": 0.0608, "2-2": 0.0484, "2-3": 0.0257, "2-4": 0.0102, "2-5": 0.0033, "2-6": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.013, "3-1": 0.0207, "3-2": 0.0165, "3-3": 0.0087, "3-4": 0.0035, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0033, "4-1": 0.0053, "4-2": 0.0042, "4-3": 0.0022, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2417, "draw": 0.2524, "away_win": 0.5059 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4848, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5152, "btts_yes": 0.5103, "btts_no": 0.4897, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2033, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 7.2, "GK": 7.12 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.22, "MCR": 7.35, "ATR": 7.52, "GK": 7.15 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Atl. Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ademola Lookman", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Ander Barrenetxea vs Morten Hjulmand). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.593, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1201, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2417, "draw": 0.2524, "away_win": 0.5059 }, "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5059, "fair_spread": -0.573, "fair_total": 2.613, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.593, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4848, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5103, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2033, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.312, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ademola Lookman (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.5108, "probability": 0.3979, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.138, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1441, "probability": 0.1975, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.613, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 867, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 47.6, "possession_away_pct": 52.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5059, "script": "Atl. Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.57 goals and fair total 2.61.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Sociedad must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atl. Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Mikel Oyarzabal against Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jon Gorrotxategi, Takefusa Kubo, Gorka Carrera Zarranz.", "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Jonathan David, Alexander Sørloth, José María Giménez.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atl. Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.31 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Sociedad is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atl. Madrid.", "Real Sociedad wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.75, "cleanSheets": 0.25, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 73.9, "cleanSheetPct": 25.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.29, "shots_faced": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "Alex Baena, Julián Alvarez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416340.0, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0935 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2288 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051.0, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.2697 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.5276 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 591, "combined_rank_score": 308.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 43.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.825, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 574.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1197, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álex Remiro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "George Pickford", "ranking": 586 }, { "player_name": "Shane Nti", "ranking": 587 }, { "player_name": "Gnangoro Bouare Samake", "ranking": 588 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili Ben Hamou", "ranking": 589 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Angel Castillo Rodrguez", "ranking": 590 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dejan Kulusevski", "ranking": 592 }, { "player_name": "Inpyo Oh", "ranking": 593 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Paredes", "ranking": 594 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Sepúlveda", "ranking": 595 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Requena", "ranking": 596 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.54, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.54, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0053, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0231, "rating": 7.082, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.75, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:01:57.246143+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 9.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8944, "touches": 51.2253, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 27.8321, "punches": 0.3138, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9006, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.8944 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8131802082061768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ] }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.023127717897295952, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.082029819488525, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0963)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.75, "cleanSheets": 0.25, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 73.9, "cleanSheetPct": 25.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.75, "cleanSheets": 0.25, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 73.9, "cleanSheetPct": 25.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.75, "cleanSheets": 0.25, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 73.9, "cleanSheetPct": 25.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 0.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.29, "shots_faced": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "Alex Baena, Julián Alvarez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.7880, xG scale 1.2944)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0233, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.8179, "duels_lost": 0, 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"ranking": 6875 }, { "player_name": "Vinícius Tobías", "ranking": 6876 }, { "player_name": "Yerlin Quinonez", "ranking": 6877 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.323, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.323, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 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"importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7250863909721375, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.0458903312683105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.461975336074829, "scale": 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(M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.4166666666666667, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7531, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 11.33, "dispossessed": 2.33, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.2587, "ballRecovery": 3.1079, "intensity_index": 4.2484, "expectedAssists": 0.018, "kilometersCovered": 4.056 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8140592575073242, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08103755116462708, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07499013096094131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10111071169376373, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753148078918457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0308, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1042, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1042, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.42 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1042, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1042, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.7880, xG scale 1.2944)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1349, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1349, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1349, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1349, "rating": 6.9611, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.6789, "dispossessed": 2.4018, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 59.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "player_id": 980410, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 179, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051.0, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": 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"ballRecovery": 0.7191, "intensity_index": 1.1506, "expectedAssists": 0.0035, "kilometersCovered": 1.2439 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5071120262145996, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03865638002753258, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06928078830242157, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02986210770905018, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.302066802978516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", 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"big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, 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2.2225, "intensity_index": 3.7288, "expectedAssists": 0.0488, "kilometersCovered": 4.3617 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8370805978775024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08911053836345673, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0883377194404602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05685783177614212, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.876797676086426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 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"big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "rating": 7.1672, "minutes": 67, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 10.4223, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340.0, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 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"projected_match_rating": 6.6691, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 }, { "player_name": "Ui-jun Jin", "ranking": 1367 }, { "player_name": "Diego Villares", "ranking": 1368 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitão", "ranking": 1370 }, { "player_name": "Jemmes", "ranking": 1371 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Muratbaev", "ranking": 1372 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jae Kim", "ranking": 1373 }, { "player_name": "Jung-min Lee", "ranking": 1374 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.441, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.441, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.713, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0582, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 19.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "rating": 6.3021, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.7747, "ballRecovery": 0.7191, "intensity_index": 1.1506, "expectedAssists": 0.0035, "kilometersCovered": 1.2439 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5071120262145996, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03865638002753258, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06928078830242157, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02986210770905018, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.302066802978516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0582, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0067, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0067, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 8.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.876797676086426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0422, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "rating": 7.1672, "minutes": 67, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Botti", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Jeisson Vargas", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Barrios", "ranking": 246 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.393, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", 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7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 7.1744, "ballRecovery": 2.9189, "intensity_index": 5.8592, "expectedAssists": 0.1179, "kilometersCovered": 4.8008 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2866172790527344, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13233307003974915, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { 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}, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1538, "rating": 7.5604, "minutes": 42, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 11.9757, "dispossessed": 1.6331, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 48, 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"2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.9189, "totalShots": 1.4595, "minutesPlayed": 84.0541, "touches": 27.5946, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1938 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3436286747455597, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.17507341504096985, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { 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"player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.462, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.462, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0901, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 214.0, "goals_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "shots_per90": 1.68, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.4166666666666667, ast/90: 0.4166666666666667)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0829, "rating": 6.749, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.0978, "ballRecovery": 4.2809, "intensity_index": 7.1006, "expectedAssists": 0.059, "kilometersCovered": 9.1546 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.05040442943573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09638307988643646, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07351742684841156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08289264887571335, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.749042987823486, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0901, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68, "opponent_faced": "Ander Barrenetxea", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.1682, xG scale 1.3636)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68, "opponent_faced": "Ander Barrenetxea", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68, "opponent_faced": "Ander Barrenetxea", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0634, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "rating": 7.357, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.5307, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 79.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.68, "opponent_faced": "Ander Barrenetxea", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0634, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1749, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Dávid Hancko": { "player_id": 807771, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 188, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.431, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 75, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 9, 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 208, "combined_rank_score": 158.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 6.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 311.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.431, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tîmbur", "ranking": 203 }, { "player_name": "Matvii Ponomarenko", "ranking": 204 }, { "player_name": "Kim In-sung", "ranking": 205 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 206 }, { "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking": 207 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dae-han Park", "ranking": 209 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Jovović", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Kenan Yıldız", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 212 }, { "player_name": "Jovan Đokić", "ranking": 213 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", 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"2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 55.036, "touches_p90": 77.032, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.0496, "totalClearance": 2.0991, "aerialWon": 1.6608 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9017327427864075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1785684823989868, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 5.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, 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0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 30.1622, "touches_p90": 47.0185, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.4595, "totalClearance": 4.7568, "aerialWon": 1.9189 }, "per_target": [ { 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0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4863252639770508, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8967421054840088, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715080738067627, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 823, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 412.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7594, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jan Kliment", "ranking": 818 }, { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking": 824 }, { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.442, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.442, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.607, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 19.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 16.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 19.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7475, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 18.5355, "touches_p90": 91.2245, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0496, "totalClearance": 4.2653, "aerialWon": 1.38 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.647861897945404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1319749355316162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5118085741996765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3218700885772705, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8946877717971802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747500419616699, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, 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"tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goal_rate": 0.0615, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, 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"position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 185, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 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"interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 823, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 412.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7594, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jan Kliment", "ranking": 818 }, { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking": 824 }, { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.442, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.442, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.607, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 19.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 16.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 19.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7475, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 18.5355, "touches_p90": 91.2245, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0496, "totalClearance": 4.2653, "aerialWon": 1.38 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.647861897945404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1319749355316162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5118085741996765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3218700885772705, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8946877717971802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747500419616699, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.1682, xG scale 1.3636)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Alexander Sørloth": { "player_id": 309078, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 195, "market_value": 18600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 265, "combined_rank_score": 198.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 89.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5125, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 307.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alexander Sørloth", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "ranking": 263 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Llorente", "ranking": 264 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Edgar Silva", "ranking": 266 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Rüdiger", "ranking": 267 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahima Konaté", "ranking": 268 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Henríquez", "ranking": 269 }, { "player_name": "Seong-min Hwang", "ranking": 270 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.00361813055217, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5910735513887351, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6171, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,600,000) scaled to 26.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.294, "goal_rate": 0.19, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.106, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 9.3, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.225, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 6 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.1682, xG scale 1.3636)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1158, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.065, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.0, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.824, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.59, "expected_assists": 0.81, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 472, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 7, "avg_rating": 7.32, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.749, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1561, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Turrientes", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "xg_contribution": 0.0462, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "RB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Turrientes (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Job Ochieng", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2200000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.427, "defenders": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.094, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Llorente", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Job Ochieng (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marcos Llorente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yangel Herrera", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.0353, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yangel Herrera (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Luken Beitia", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.1226, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luken Beitia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luken Beitia and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.571, "xg_contribution": 0.1376, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.429 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (LM) is slightly favored against Sergio Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Koke", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.0382, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Aramburu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Koke (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Aramburu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morten Hjulmand", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Yangel Herrera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "xg_contribution": 0.0628, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yangel Herrera", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.42 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morten Hjulmand (CM) is slightly favored against Yangel Herrera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.532, "away_midfield_power": 0.742, "home_creative_power": 0.431, "away_creative_power": 0.67, "home_defensive_power": 0.431, "away_defensive_power": 0.588, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.418, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ander Barrenetxea", "Beñat Turrientes", "Yangel Herrera", "Job Ochieng" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alex Baena", "Morten Hjulmand", "Koke", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Ander Barrenetxea vs Morten Hjulmand", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.971, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.033 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.593, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Job Ochieng": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Llorente", "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yangel Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luken Beitia": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Job Ochieng" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Yangel Herrera" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Luken Beitia", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez", "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Koke": { "opponents": [ "Jon Aramburu", "Job Ochieng" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Sergio Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Ander Barrenetxea vs Morten Hjulmand). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1267, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9045, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9659, "home_midfield_factor": 0.971, "away_midfield_factor": 1.033, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5588, "away_avg_quality": 0.7514, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1926, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1076, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.9957, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.1963, "elite_count_gap": -6, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4022, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2212, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1287, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0609, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1403, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.294, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.296, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4022, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1056, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9698, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.943, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.441, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.915, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.593, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9428, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4407, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.593 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1955, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.98, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.4506, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.02, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Sociedad vs Atl. Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.943, Away 1.441). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.593 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.294, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.296, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.593, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.943, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.441 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-13T13:30:46Z" }