{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Barcelona", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-3", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 3, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0728, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0991, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0728 }, { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.0699 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0573 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0569 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.055 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0062, "0-1": 0.0232, "0-2": 0.0448, "0-3": 0.0573, "0-4": 0.055, "0-5": 0.0422, "0-6": 0.027, "0-7": 0.0148, "0-8": 0.0071, "0-9": 0.003, "1-0": 0.0076, "1-1": 0.0298, "1-2": 0.0569, "1-3": 0.0728, "1-4": 0.0699, "1-5": 0.0536, "1-6": 0.0343, "1-7": 0.0188, "1-8": 0.009, "1-9": 0.0038, "2-0": 0.0049, "2-1": 0.0188, "2-2": 0.0362, "2-3": 0.0463, "2-4": 0.0444, "2-5": 0.0341, "2-6": 0.0218, "2-7": 0.012, "2-8": 0.0057, "2-9": 0.0024, "3-0": 0.0021, "3-1": 0.008, "3-2": 0.0153, "3-3": 0.0196, "3-4": 0.0188, "3-5": 0.0144, "3-6": 0.0092, "3-7": 0.0051, "3-8": 0.0024, "3-9": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0007, "4-1": 0.0025, "4-2": 0.0049, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.006, "4-5": 0.0046, "4-6": 0.0029, "4-7": 0.0016, "4-8": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0006, "5-2": 0.0012, "5-3": 0.0016, "5-4": 0.0015, "5-5": 0.0012, "5-6": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0779, "draw": 0.0991, "away_win": 0.8231 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8835, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1165, "btts_yes": 0.704, "btts_no": 0.296, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0217, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2806 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 7.18 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 7.7, "ATR": 7.57, "GK": 7.75 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-3. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Iván Romero, Lamine Yamal, Anthony Gordon (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 1.07. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.271, "away_lambda": 3.838, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0779, "draw": 0.0991, "away_win": 0.8231 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8231, "fair_spread": -2.567, "fair_total": 5.109, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.271, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.838, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8835, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.704, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0217, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2806, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.2294, "probability": 0.1268, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Anthony Gordon (Barcelona)", "estimate": 1.0844, "probability": 0.782, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrián de la Fuente (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1872, "probability": 0.0516, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Raphinha (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.219, "probability": 0.2659, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.109, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 888, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 45.6, "possession_away_pct": 54.4, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8231, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.57 goals and fair total 5.11.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Anthony Gordon against Aïssa Mandi, Nacho Pérez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Hugo Sotelo.", "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Anthony Gordon (2); bench watchlist: Karim Adeyemi, Gabriel Jesus.", "Assist usage should flow through Jon Ander Olasagasti, Raphinha; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 2.55 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Levante": { "formation": "4-1-4-1", "players": { "Iván Romero": { "player_id": 1014042, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 172, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2241, "goal_rate": 0.3104, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.4782, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 22.2, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 82.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4472, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0851, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "expected_assists": 0.1303, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0922, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4209, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3447, "combined_rank_score": 1440.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 469.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8844, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 2411.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7598, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Iván Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking": 3444 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 }, { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Josh Acheampong", "ranking": 3448 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Yates", "ranking": 3449 }, { "player_name": "Scott McKenna", "ranking": 3450 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking": 3451 }, { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.525, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.525, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9974, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Levante", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 223.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.63, "shots_on_target_pct": 22.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Levante, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2245, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7771, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.8473, "totalShots": 2.8742, "minutesPlayed": 70.5469, "touches": 26.4153, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2035 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.22450010478496552, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.33114099502563477, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7229974865913391, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.036096084862947464, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6274028420448303, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.777142524719238, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.3303, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.4782, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0602)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.3104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.4782, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 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"xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", 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"opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.0089, "ballRecovery": 2.5549, "intensity_index": 5.7974, "expectedAssists": 0.0908, "kilometersCovered": 7.9204 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0836577415466309, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 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"match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", 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"laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1872, "combined_rank_score": 722.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 217.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1227.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3786, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Bernal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Fydriszewski", "ranking": 1871 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Calebe Gonçalves", "ranking": 1873 }, { "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking": 1874 }, { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.523, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.523, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 204.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4347826086956522, "shots_per90": 1.32, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.4347826086956522)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 59, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 6.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 8.3136, "ballRecovery": 5.3182, "intensity_index": 4.086, "expectedAssists": 0.0685, "kilometersCovered": 6.6339 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.050844430923462, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06398198008537292, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09264013171195984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03536381945014, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.941333770751953, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0630, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "rating": 7.3786, "minutes": 62, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 6.9095, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0554)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "rating": 7.3786, "minutes": 62, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 6.9095, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 75.6, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.09 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "rating": 7.3786, "minutes": 62, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 6.9095, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.523, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", 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"dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 83, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 46.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 6.7579, "ballRecovery": 5.71, "intensity_index": 5.598, "expectedAssists": 0.2017, "kilometersCovered": 9.602 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0909383296966553, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10140618681907654, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.13788960874080658, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10709205269813538, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.106444358825684, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1199, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1136, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1199, "rating": 7.9586, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 64, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 43, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 39, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 82, "possession_lost": 7.5594, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, 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true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 62.0097, "touches_p90": 113.7175, "possessionLostCtrl": 1.8338, "totalClearance": 3.4694, "aerialWon": 1.9504 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0441967248916626, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1930352449417114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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{ "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1545331478118896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6266582012176514, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.8647987842559814, "scale": "count per match", 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"2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.3534, "ballRecovery": 2.0, "intensity_index": 7.5614, "expectedAssists": 0.3577, "kilometersCovered": 8.4027 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.766804575920105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1854475438594818, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 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"ranking": 37 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cuñat", "ranking": 38 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.523, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15151028335094452, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.16735374927520752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1854214072227478, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.989233016967773, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1183, quality 0.894)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2074, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.301, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0554)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2074, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.301, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 83.3, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 76.7, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.91 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2074, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.301, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 83.3, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 76.7, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.91 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2074, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.301, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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} }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.84 (squad xG sum 1.1028, xG scale 3.4802)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7218, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 12.301, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 83.3, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 76.7, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.91, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.677, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7218, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, 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"dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.677, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1694, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7218, "rating": 7.8159, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Gabriel Jesus": { "player_id": 794839, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 17600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.1909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.731, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.123, "expected_assists": 0.222, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2126, "combined_rank_score": 803.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.0718, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 2123 }, { "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking": 2124 }, { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Sarvar Abduhamidov", "ranking": 2129 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Shchebetun", "ranking": 2130 }, { "player_name": "Nurzhakhon Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2131 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.963015995530526, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5892279997968422, "market_value_adjustment": 1.032, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 26.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1216, "goal_rate": 0.1688, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8833, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0, "minutesPlayed": 9.0, "touches": 21.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.3 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12161743640899658, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16883952915668488, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6122474670410156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.031219758093357086, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4990933835506439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 5.883261203765869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0320, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1255, "goal_rate": 0.1743, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.1282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.1909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.1909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.84 (squad xG sum 1.1028, xG scale 3.4802)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.1909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.731, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.126, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.0718, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.1909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.731, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.84, "expected_assists": 1.11, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 515, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 7.37, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Gerard Martín", "João Cancelo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1443, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gerard Martín and João Cancelo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Andreas Christensen" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.495, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.392, "xg_contribution": 0.1392, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andreas Christensen", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Andreas Christensen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Xavi Espart" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.1537, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (RM) is evenly matched against Xavi Espart in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Bardeli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Marc Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.036, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Bardeli (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Marc Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "xg_contribution": 0.0268, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.666, "xg_contribution": 0.1629, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.334 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 103000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.894, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.677, "xg_contribution": 0.2852, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.323 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€103M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.285 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Manuel Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.685, "xg_contribution": 0.3072, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.315 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Manuel Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.307 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Nacho Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.409, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.3116, "shots_in_zone": 3.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 }, { "player": "Nacho Pérez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Nacho Pérez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.312 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.492, "away_midfield_power": 0.903, "home_creative_power": 0.376, "away_creative_power": 0.884, "home_defensive_power": 0.376, "away_defensive_power": 0.684, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.353, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Thiago Fernández", "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Enzo Bardeli", "Roger Brugué", "Oriol Rey" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Marc Bernal", "Pedri", "Lamine Yamal", "Fermín López", "Raphinha" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 3.3, "key_personal_duel": "Enzo Bardeli vs Lamine Yamal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.947, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.061 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.271, "away_lambda": 3.838, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Gerard Martín", "João Cancelo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Andreas Christensen", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Espart", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Marc Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Marc Bernal", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nacho Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andreas Christensen": { "opponents": [ "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Bardeli", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Sánchez", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Nacho Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 1.07. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0173, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1176, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9639, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0064, "home_midfield_factor": 0.947, "away_midfield_factor": 1.061, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4449, "away_avg_quality": 0.7345, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2897, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.7778, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.8427, "attack_value_gap_log": -3.0016, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.707, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3889, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2262, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0688, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0611, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.707, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1818, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9393, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.353, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 3.248, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3529, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 3.2476, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.271, "final_away_lambda": 3.838 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7155, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 0.416, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6513, "attack_index": 3.54, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 4.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Barcelona. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-1-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.353, Away 3.248). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.271, Away 3.838 (most likely score 1-3).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.271, "away_lambda": 3.838, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.353, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 3.248 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-13T13:30:27Z" }