{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Brighton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1097, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brighton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2461, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1097 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.117 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0962 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0916 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0692 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0676, "0-1": 0.1097, "0-2": 0.0916, "0-3": 0.0506, "0-4": 0.021, "0-5": 0.0069, "0-6": 0.0019, "1-0": 0.0692, "1-1": 0.117, "1-2": 0.0962, "1-3": 0.0531, "1-4": 0.022, "1-5": 0.0073, "1-6": 0.002, "2-0": 0.0368, "2-1": 0.061, "2-2": 0.0505, "2-3": 0.0279, "2-4": 0.0116, "2-5": 0.0038, "2-6": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0129, "3-1": 0.0213, "3-2": 0.0177, "3-3": 0.0098, "3-4": 0.004, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0034, "4-1": 0.0056, "4-2": 0.0046, "4-3": 0.0026, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2394, "draw": 0.2461, "away_win": 0.5146 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5081, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4919, "btts_yes": 0.527, "btts_no": 0.473, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1907, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.62, "GK": 7.44 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.11, "MCR": 7.16, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 7.3 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Brighton. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 3 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Malick Yalcouyé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Yasin Ayari will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.657, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.117, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2394, "draw": 0.2461, "away_win": 0.5146 }, "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5146, "fair_spread": -0.607, "fair_total": 2.707, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.657, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5081, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.527, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1907, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.172, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Diego Gómez (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.3127, "probability": 0.1101, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Aurèle Amenda (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.131, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Olivier Boscagli (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.1836, "probability": 0.1683, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.707, "expected_total_shots": 40, "expected_total_passes": 1006, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.6, "possession_home_pct": 49.2, "possession_away_pct": 50.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5146, "script": "Brighton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.61 goals and fair total 2.71.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 20 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brighton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Coventry chance creation leans on Taiwo Awoniyi against Luka Vušković in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright, Liam Kitching.", "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Malick Yalcouyé; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Evan Ferguson, Stefanos Tzimas.", "Assist usage should flow through Olivier Boscagli; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brighton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 20 total first-half shots, and 1.35 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brighton.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Coventry": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "player_id": 861315, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 178, "market_value": 17200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1322, "rating": 7.0833, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3, "offsides": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 32.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Diego Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363263.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3588, "combined_rank_score": 1556.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2197.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0833, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisson Santos", "ranking": 3583 }, { "player_name": "Dakonam Djené", "ranking": 3584 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Ferllo", "ranking": 3585 }, { "player_name": "Sivera", "ranking": 3586 }, { "player_name": "Kike García", "ranking": 3587 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Zubeldia", "ranking": 3589 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Rincón", "ranking": 3590 }, { "player_name": "Christos Zafeiris", "ranking": 3591 }, { "player_name": "Luiz Felipe", "ranking": 3592 }, { "player_name": "Catena", "ranking": 3593 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.319, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.319, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0308, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 58.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Coventry City, rel: 0.04, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0799, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0308, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "rating": 7.0833, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "rating": 7.0833, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3, "offsides": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 32.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "rating": 7.0833, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3, "offsides": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 32.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1418, "rating": 7.0833, "minutes": 60, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 12.3696, "dispossessed": 1.0308, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 3, "offsides": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 32.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": 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14.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, 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0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "rating": 6.8798, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.7308, "dispossessed": 1.0228, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.053, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.7267, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.026, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0231, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.638, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.66, "expected_assists": 0.83, "total_shots": 25, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 630, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 7.15, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "RB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.716 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €36M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.1, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (CM) is evenly matched against Diego Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.1333, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ephron Mason-Clark (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Diego Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Frank Onyeka", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Olivier Boscagli" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0331, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "role": "LB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frank Onyeka (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Olivier Boscagli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.245, "xg_contribution": 0.1845, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 } ], "duel_analysis": "Taiwo Awoniyi (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luka Vušković in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.429, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.365, "xg_contribution": 0.1387, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.635 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Ethan Pinnock in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0652, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Rudoni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CAM) is evenly matched against Jack Rudoni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.261, "xg_contribution": 0.1712, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 }, { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.576, "away_midfield_power": 0.633, "home_creative_power": 0.528, "away_creative_power": 0.504, "home_defensive_power": 0.54, "away_defensive_power": 0.611, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.476, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Jack Rudoni", "Matt Grimes", "Frank Onyeka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pascal Groß", "Yasin Ayari", "Diego Gómez", "Malick Yalcouyé" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Jack Rudoni vs Yasin Ayari", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.99, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.003 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.657, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Malick Yalcouyé" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Frank Onyeka": { "opponents": [ "Olivier Boscagli", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Taiwo Awoniyi": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß", "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aurèle Amenda": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Malick Yalcouyé": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Dunk": { "opponents": [ "Taiwo Awoniyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Yasin Ayari will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9503, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.148, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.117, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9142, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9598, "home_midfield_factor": 0.99, "away_midfield_factor": 1.003, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.542, "away_avg_quality": 0.6399, "avg_quality_gap": -0.098, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.6674, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7133, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5143, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1896, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1043, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0607, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1183, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1665, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.892, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.657, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8923, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6565, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.657 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0059, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.948, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6504, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.052, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Coventry vs Brighton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.892, Away 1.657). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.050, Away 1.657 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.657, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.892, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.657 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:31:11Z" }