{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1303, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Deportivo", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2969, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1303 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1355 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1173 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1171 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0761 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1173, "0-1": 0.1303, "0-2": 0.0746, "0-3": 0.0282, "0-4": 0.008, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.1171, "1-1": 0.1355, "1-2": 0.0761, "1-3": 0.0288, "1-4": 0.0082, "1-5": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0604, "2-1": 0.0684, "2-2": 0.0388, "2-3": 0.0147, "2-4": 0.0042, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0205, "3-1": 0.0233, "3-2": 0.0132, "3-3": 0.005, "3-4": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0052, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0034, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3226, "draw": 0.2969, "away_win": 0.3805 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3649, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6351, "btts_yes": 0.435, "btts_no": 0.565, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3217, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.37, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.56, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.03 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Marc Casadó will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.63, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.134, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1355, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3226, "draw": 0.2969, "away_win": 0.3805 }, "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3805, "fair_spread": -0.114, "fair_total": 2.154, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.134, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3649, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.435, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3217, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.277, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.5236, "probability": 0.6242, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.088, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Giacomo Quagliata (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1276, "probability": 0.0387, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.154, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 651, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3805, "script": "Deportivo is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.11 goals and fair total 2.15.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Deportivo lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Deportivo chance creation leans on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang against Djené, Andrés García in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Borja Mayoral, Abdel Abqar.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; bench watchlist: Yeremay Hernández, Adama Traoré.", "Assist usage should flow through Luismi Cruz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Deportivo tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.08 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Deportivo.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Martín Satriano": { "player_id": 973536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.277, "goal_rate": 0.4152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9387, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 12.1061, "dispossessed": 2.0177, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi", "opponent_faced": "José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2807, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3117, "combined_rank_score": 1079.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 583.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7944, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 1576.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9387, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "ranking": 3112 }, { "player_name": "Arnau Martínez", "ranking": 3113 }, { "player_name": "Ayase Ueda", "ranking": 3114 }, { "player_name": "Mika Godts", "ranking": 3115 }, { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 }, { "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking": 3121 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.465, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.465, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0088, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 246.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.2, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.18, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3267, "goal_rate": 0.4441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8778, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3887, "totalShots": 2.7191, "minutesPlayed": 81.7891, "touches": 34.7823, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2513 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.32665470242500305, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4440862536430359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7494022250175476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039524756371974945, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7874433398246765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8778276443481445, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3295, "goal_rate": 0.448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9387, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 12.1061, "dispossessed": 2.0177, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0731)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3295, "goal_rate": 0.4152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9387, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 12.1061, "dispossessed": 2.0177, "duels_lost": 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{ "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.219, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.741, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 14.262, "dispossessed": 1.6621, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 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"2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.0, "ballRecovery": 5.0, "intensity_index": 6.453, "expectedAssists": 0.0083, "kilometersCovered": 11.51 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8322097063064575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04881610348820686, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 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"match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 0.0, "touches_p90": 20.6757, "possessionLostCtrl": 0.9189, "totalClearance": 0.4595, "aerialWon": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8679802417755127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.904294490814209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", 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"total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Zaid Romero": { "player_id": 1108450, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 192, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.5013, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.7268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2838, "combined_rank_score": 960.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 348.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9867, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 1572.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5013, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zaid Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shamsiddin Tursunmakhamadov", "ranking": 2833 }, { "player_name": "Dani Meso", "ranking": 2834 }, { "player_name": "Reggie Walsh", "ranking": 2835 }, { "player_name": "Kaden Rodney", "ranking": 2836 }, { "player_name": "Shumaira Mheuka", "ranking": 2837 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Carrasco", "ranking": 2839 }, { "player_name": "James Scanlon", "ranking": 2840 }, { "player_name": "Paulinho", "ranking": 2841 }, { "player_name": "Marc Casadó", "ranking": 2842 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Göppel", "ranking": 2843 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.217, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6256, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 11.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 32.1613, "touches_p90": 62.4109, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.3955, "totalClearance": 4.8921, "aerialWon": 1.9329 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8094202876091003, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.5494155883789062, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7706445455551147, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.683881163597107, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8613718748092651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.625647068023682, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5013, "minutes": 81, 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team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8897, xG scale 1.1465)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0167, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5535, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, 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0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.519, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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"duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 2.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 5.3243, "touches": 2.5405, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10018515586853027, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11608488857746124, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.47673457860946655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.01980220340192318, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3440074026584625, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": 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"duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.9869, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5535, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"expectedAssists": 0.0, "kilometersCovered": 0.13 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.576768159866333, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04120735079050064, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0707632452249527, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 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"ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "rating": 6.4644, "minutes": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9193364381790161, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 4.938138008117676, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9823, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 4.851, "minutes": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.9823, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 4.851, "minutes": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.9823, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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}, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.529, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.529, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Dep. 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A Coruña, rel: 0.19, gls/90: 1.0344827586206895, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4559, "goal_rate": 1.0735, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3165, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 7.75, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.58, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 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"possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.442, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 37.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7365, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 18.5355, "touches_p90": 91.2245, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0496, "totalClearance": 4.2653, "aerialWon": 1.38 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.996860921382904, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2057336568832397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6773873567581177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.443347454071045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3109850883483887, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736539363861084, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7484, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7484, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6989266872406006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.765022277832031, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9912, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7057, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 7.9299, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 144, "progressive_carries": 5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7057, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2401, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7057, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2401, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.6775, xG scale 1.6738)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7057, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2401, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7057, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2401, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.13, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 340, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.76, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Johan Mojica", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.401, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.074, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Mojica (LWB) is evenly matched against Ximo Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0347, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Casadó", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Casadó in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.374, "xg_contribution": 0.1566, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Casadó", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.626 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Casadó in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.2416, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.242 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.212, "xg_contribution": 0.191, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nemanja Gudelj", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0567, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Casadó", "role": "CM", "market_value": 17400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nemanja Gudelj (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Casadó in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luismi Cruz", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "xg_contribution": 0.0557, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luismi Cruz (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marc Casadó", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.605, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "xg_contribution": 0.0533, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.537 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Casadó (CM) is evenly matched against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.0305, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Djené", "Andrés García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.3128, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Djené and Andrés García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.313 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Djené", "Andrés García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "xg_contribution": 0.136, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 }, { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Djené and Andrés García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.5, "away_midfield_power": 0.522, "home_creative_power": 0.404, "away_creative_power": 0.422, "home_defensive_power": 0.404, "away_defensive_power": 0.46, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.489, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano", "Luismi Cruz" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Mario Martín vs Marc Casadó", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.004 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.134, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó", "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Luismi Cruz", "Mario Soriano", "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo", "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sebastián Boselli": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Casadó": { "opponents": [ "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Nemanja Gudelj", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luismi Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Andrés García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Andrés García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Marc Casadó will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0111, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0075, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 1.004, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4649, "away_avg_quality": 0.4611, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0038, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0408, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0228, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0783, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0096, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0698, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0648, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.857, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.134, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8568, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1338, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.134 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7176, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2627, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Getafe vs Deportivo. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-3-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.857, Away 1.134). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.134 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.134, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.857, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.134 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-13T13:30:42Z" }