{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1601, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Málaga", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3248, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1601 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1598 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1343 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1289 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0824 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1598, "0-1": 0.1601, "0-2": 0.0824, "0-3": 0.028, "0-4": 0.0071, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1289, "1-1": 0.1343, "1-2": 0.0678, "1-3": 0.023, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0536, "2-1": 0.0547, "2-2": 0.0279, "2-3": 0.0095, "2-4": 0.0024, "3-0": 0.0147, "3-1": 0.015, "3-2": 0.0077, "3-3": 0.0026, "3-4": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.003, "4-1": 0.0031, "4-2": 0.0016, "4-3": 0.0005, "5-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2844, "draw": 0.3248, "away_win": 0.3909 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2809, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7191, "btts_yes": 0.3601, "btts_no": 0.6399, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4391 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.7, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.76 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.53, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 7.13 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Málaga. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Chupete", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs David Larrubia will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: LW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 0.823, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2844, "draw": 0.3248, "away_win": 0.3909 }, "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3909, "fair_spread": -0.197, "fair_total": 1.843, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 0.823, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2809, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3601, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4391, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marcos Alonso (Celta)", "estimate": 0.188, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.3755, "probability": 0.6075, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo González (Celta)", "estimate": 0.126, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1225, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 1.843, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 926, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.6, "possession_away_pct": 48.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3909, "script": "Málaga is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.20 goals and fair total 1.84.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Celta must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Málaga lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Málaga chance creation leans on Chupete against Marcos Alonso in LW vs CB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jones El-Abdellaoui, Hugo Álvarez, Couhaib Driouech.", "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through Chupete; bench watchlist: Adrián Niño, Julen Lobete.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Málaga tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 0.92 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Celta is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Málaga.", "Celta wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Williot Swedberg": { "player_id": 1126779, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "rating": 7.0444, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 6.2126, "dispossessed": 1.0354, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 60.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Dotor", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Dotor", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416340.0, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3324, "combined_rank_score": 1279.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0444, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Zendejas", "ranking": 3326 }, { "player_name": "Sacha Boey", "ranking": 3327 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Cuypers", "ranking": 3328 }, { "player_name": "Carl Rushworth", "ranking": 3329 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.337, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.337, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0354, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 216.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.25, "shots_on_target_pct": 66.7, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "rating": 6.8033, "minutes": 33, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0354, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0908, "rating": 7.0444, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 6.2126, "dispossessed": 1.0354, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0867)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0908, "rating": 7.0444, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 6.2126, "dispossessed": 1.0354, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 66.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 60.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.25 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0908, "rating": 7.0444, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 6.2126, "dispossessed": 1.0354, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, 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"big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.9068, xG scale 1.1248)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Julen Lobete": { "player_id": 1006232, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 176, "market_value": 1200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2569, "combined_rank_score": 1059.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.1167, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julen Lobete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean Borg", "ranking": 2564 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Martins", "ranking": 2565 }, { "player_name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ranking": 2566 }, { "player_name": "Jan Mlakar", "ranking": 2567 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Ramazonov", "ranking": 2568 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eneko Jauregi", "ranking": 2570 }, { "player_name": "Ryan McAidoo", "ranking": 2571 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Gómez", "ranking": 2572 }, { "player_name": "Tiquinho Soares", "ranking": 2573 }, { "player_name": "Weibmar Asprilla", "ranking": 2574 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1267, "goal_rate": 0.1177, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2337, "minutes": 9, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1243, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 9, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.9068, xG scale 1.1248)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.5, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 420, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hugo González", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 720000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.409, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.0835, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "RB", "market_value": 940000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo González (LWB) is evenly matched against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.529, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.471 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is slightly favored against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.513, "xg_contribution": 0.0706, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.487 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (CM) is slightly favored against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Javier Rueda", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Jose Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0437, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jose Salinas", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Rueda (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jose Salinas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.405, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.1921, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Einar Galilea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Williot Swedberg", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "xg_contribution": 0.1094, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439 } ], "duel_analysis": "Williot Swedberg (CM) is slightly favored against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0737, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (CM) is evenly matched against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joaquín Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "xg_contribution": 0.089, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joaquín Muñoz (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.331, "xg_contribution": 0.1405, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.669 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.416, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.3338, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (LW) is evenly matched against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.334 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "xg_contribution": 0.0328, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.641 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.326, "xg_contribution": 0.0441, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.674 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.605, "away_midfield_power": 0.481, "home_creative_power": 0.471, "away_creative_power": 0.405, "home_defensive_power": 0.471, "away_defensive_power": 0.39, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.557, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Hugo González", "Sergio Carreira", "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba", "Javier Rueda" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Joaquín Muñoz", "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez", "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Williot Swedberg vs David Larrubia", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.019, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.982 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.823, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Hugo González": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Joaquín Muñoz", "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Rueda": { "opponents": [ "Jose Salinas", "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Williot Swedberg": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Carl Starfelt": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román", "Williot Swedberg", "Sergio Carreira", "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jose Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Einar Galilea": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Williot Swedberg" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Williot Swedberg" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs David Larrubia will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.64. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.01, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0204, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0211, "home_midfield_factor": 1.019, "away_midfield_factor": 0.982, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5025, "away_avg_quality": 0.4328, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0698, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.9562, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.8944, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9539, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.187, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1029, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0599, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0628, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0686, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.823, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.65, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8228, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6004, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.823, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8245, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 1.458, "form_multiplier": 1.006, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.75, "team_ppg": 0.6, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6388, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.994, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.6 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Celta vs Málaga. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-3 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 0.823, Away 0.600). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.823, Away 1.020 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.823, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.823, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.6 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-12T13:31:12Z" }