{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Man City", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260913", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0874, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.191, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0874 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0726 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0706 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0651 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0587 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0204, "0-1": 0.048, "0-2": 0.0587, "0-3": 0.0474, "0-4": 0.0287, "0-5": 0.0139, "0-6": 0.0056, "0-7": 0.0019, "0-8": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0293, "1-1": 0.0726, "1-2": 0.0874, "1-3": 0.0706, "1-4": 0.0428, "1-5": 0.0208, "1-6": 0.0084, "1-7": 0.0029, "1-8": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0222, "2-1": 0.0537, "2-2": 0.0651, "2-3": 0.0526, "2-4": 0.0319, "2-5": 0.0155, "2-6": 0.0062, "2-7": 0.0022, "2-8": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.011, "3-1": 0.0267, "3-2": 0.0323, "3-3": 0.0261, "3-4": 0.0158, "3-5": 0.0077, "3-6": 0.0031, "3-7": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0041, "4-1": 0.0099, "4-2": 0.012, "4-3": 0.0097, "4-4": 0.0059, "4-5": 0.0029, "4-6": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0036, "5-3": 0.0029, "5-4": 0.0018, "5-5": 0.0009, "6-1": 0.0007, "6-2": 0.0009, "6-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2275, "draw": 0.191, "away_win": 0.5815 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7488, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2512, "btts_yes": 0.7062, "btts_no": 0.2938, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0886, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2256 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.05, "MCR": 7.74, "ATR": 7.5, "GK": 7.38 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.57, "MCR": 7.89, "ATR": 8.19, "GK": 7.85 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Man City. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bryan Mbeumo, Erling Haaland (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.489, "away_lambda": 2.424, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2275, "draw": 0.191, "away_win": 0.5815 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5815, "fair_spread": -0.935, "fair_total": 3.913, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.489, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 2.424, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7488, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7062, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0886, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2256, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.3828, "probability": 0.3183, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 1.0207, "probability": 0.887, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Luke Shaw (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.1696, "probability": 0.0363, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rúben Dias (Man City)", "estimate": 0.2764, "probability": 0.0469, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.913, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 1382, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.0, "possession_away_pct": 51.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5815, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.94 goals and fair total 3.91.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Man Utd must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Benjamin Šeško, Carlos Baleba, Amad Diallo.", "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Ayyoub Bouaddi, Omar Marmoush, Matheus Nunes.", "Assist usage should flow through Bruno Fernandes, Rayan Cherki; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.96 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Man Utd is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Man Utd wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1932, "goal_rate": 0.2927, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.4672, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 10.3967, "dispossessed": 1.4821, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 3, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 87.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.57, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Abdukodir Khusanov", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Abdukodir Khusanov", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.082, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363259.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1178, "expected_assists": 0.054, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.1515, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2431, "expected_assists": 0.2127, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 356, "combined_rank_score": 231.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 261.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0909, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4672, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorginho", "ranking": 351 }, { "player_name": "Renê", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Amanov", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Aboubacar Toungara", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking": 357 }, { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1143, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 158.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 2.85, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.258, "goal_rate": 0.2761, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7011, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 9.33, "dispossessed": 1.33, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6113, "totalShots": 2.2809, "minutesPlayed": 76.1127, "touches": 39.2575, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1929 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.25797173380851746, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2761218547821045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6374675631523132, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05800910294055939, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7066214680671692, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701054573059082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1143, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2875, "goal_rate": 0.3077, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.4672, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.8338, "ballRecovery": 3.8338, "intensity_index": 9.1282, "expectedAssists": 0.2546, "kilometersCovered": 11.0476 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.4350446462631226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": 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match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9254584312438965, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0696, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1286, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3005, 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"match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 8.9811, "ballRecovery": 7.4723, "intensity_index": 3.2308, "expectedAssists": 0.1206, "kilometersCovered": 7.5478 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2855857610702515, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08493561297655106, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", 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"touches_p90": 75.0107, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.8941, "totalClearance": 5.3411, "aerialWon": 4.1079 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.958526611328125, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2009416818618774, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7300050854682922, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", 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"rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 23.9466, "touches_p90": 77.0945, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.2566, "totalClearance": 1.0496, "aerialWon": 0.3887 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8822387456893921, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3102036714553833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", 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"player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 }, { "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking": 141 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 }, { "player_name": "Esteban Kirkman", "ranking": 147 }, { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", 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"trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 112.0811, "touches_p90": 131.027, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.2432, "totalClearance": 5.7027, "aerialWon": 4.0811 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9083840250968933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1696434020996094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7493497133255005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.9481265544891357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.7428609132766724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.053555011749268, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1093, quality 0.864)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.8247, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 131, "accurate_pass": 124, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 63, "accurate_own_half_passes": 61, "total_opp_half_passes": 68, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 63, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 145, "possession_lost": 7.7653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 57, "total_progression": 207, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0619)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.8247, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 131, "accurate_pass": 124, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 63, "accurate_own_half_passes": 61, "total_opp_half_passes": 68, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 63, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 145, "possession_lost": 7.7653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 57, "total_progression": 207, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.8247, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 131, "accurate_pass": 124, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 63, "accurate_own_half_passes": 61, "total_opp_half_passes": 68, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 63, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 145, "possession_lost": 7.7653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, 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Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.42 (squad xG sum 1.2428, xG scale 1.9504)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.8247, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 131, "accurate_pass": 124, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 63, "accurate_own_half_passes": 61, "total_opp_half_passes": 68, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 63, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 145, "possession_lost": 7.7653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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"combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 58.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.6748, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 }, { "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking": 59 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Paquetá", "ranking": 60 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 120, "accurate_pass": 112, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 69, "accurate_own_half_passes": 67, "total_opp_half_passes": 50, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 45, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 128, "possession_lost": 9.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.25, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 56, "total_progression": 290, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:02.026825+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 111.9028, "touches_p90": 127.7852, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.4373, "totalClearance": 4.173, "aerialWon": 3.3975 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0180466175079346, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.0797886848449707, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5406190156936646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.689462184906006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.7310844659805298, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.940652370452881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1058, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, 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1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.6748, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 132, "accurate_pass": 123, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 77, "accurate_own_half_passes": 74, "total_opp_half_passes": 56, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 50, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 142, "possession_lost": 9.952, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2764, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 62, "total_progression": 320, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.6748, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 132, "accurate_pass": 123, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 77, "accurate_own_half_passes": 74, "total_opp_half_passes": 56, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 50, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 142, "possession_lost": 9.952, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2764, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 62, "total_progression": 320, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.6748, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 132, "accurate_pass": 123, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 77, "accurate_own_half_passes": 74, "total_opp_half_passes": 56, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 50, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 142, "possession_lost": 9.952, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, 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"progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Matheus Cunha", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.6748, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 132, 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16363243.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4955, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 49, "combined_rank_score": 60.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 23.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8578, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Euller", "ranking": 44 }, { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.45, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", 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"minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.6782, "ballRecovery": 2.1574, "intensity_index": 5.3158, "expectedAssists": 0.4384, "kilometersCovered": 7.3339 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.7957944869995117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.17304205894470215, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": 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"1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke Shaw", "opponent_faced": "Luke Shaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1934, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2813, "rating": 7.8578, "minutes": 65, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 11.1778, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0036, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Matheus Nunes": { "player_id": 945122, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 183, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "expected_goals": 0.0138, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.2932, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363243.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 661, "combined_rank_score": 335.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 394.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9471, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Nunes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Tigrão", "ranking": 656 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Montiel", "ranking": 657 }, { "player_name": "Orkun Kökçü", "ranking": 658 }, { "player_name": "Keon-woo Bak", "ranking": 659 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Jurman", "ranking": 660 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Plaza", "ranking": 662 }, { "player_name": "Yerko González", "ranking": 663 }, { "player_name": "Kim Tae-han", "ranking": 664 }, { "player_name": "Kwang-yeon Lee", "ranking": 665 }, { "player_name": "Shahzodbek Rahmatullayev", "ranking": 666 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.254, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.254, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.633, "market_value_adjustment": 0.8168, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€48,000,000) scaled to 25.5 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.82)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 43, "expected_goals": 0.025, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.075, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.019, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 6 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0174)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 43, "expected_goals": 0.025, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.075, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.019, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 6, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.2932, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.2932, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.42 (squad xG sum 1.2428, xG scale 1.9504)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "expected_goals": 0.0138, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.2932, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "expected_goals": 0.0138, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 25, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.2932, "dispossessed": 0.6, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 18.9, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 5.29, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "player_id": 1564180, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 185, "market_value": 87000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363263.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1194, "combined_rank_score": 525.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4805, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 }, { "player_name": "Murodbek Rahmatov", "ranking": 1196 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Lienhart", "ranking": 1197 }, { "player_name": "Seung-Yong Jeong", "ranking": 1198 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dae-Woo", "ranking": 1199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.376, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.376, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.728, "market_value_adjustment": 1.1162, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (2 historical appearances) to 15.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.73); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 10.4247, "ballRecovery": 1.6216, "intensity_index": 0.8151, "expectedAssists": 0.054, "kilometersCovered": 1.9512 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6399682760238647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03950471058487892, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07608029991388321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03226303681731224, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701848983764648, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1162, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 15.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.42 (squad xG sum 1.2428, xG scale 1.9504)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 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"ranking": 112 }, { "player_name": "Jun-ho Son", "ranking": 113 }, { "player_name": "Luka Modrić", "ranking": 114 }, { "player_name": "Jean Meneses", "ranking": 115 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 116 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.68792356622463, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5767237984647559, "market_value_adjustment": 0.8707, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€70,000,000) scaled to 23.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.87)", "stats": { "key_pass": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.222, 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} ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.376, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", 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"M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:05.725191+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 10.4247, "ballRecovery": 1.6216, "intensity_index": 0.8151, "expectedAssists": 0.054, "kilometersCovered": 1.9512 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6399682760238647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", 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0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701848983764648, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1162, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, 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0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "rating": 7.4805, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 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"source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363638.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1658, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1686, 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"ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 }, { "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking": 616 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-yong Lee", "ranking": 622 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Alarcón", "ranking": 623 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Saitov", "ranking": 624 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", 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"xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-13T10:02:09.474235+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4595, "totalShots": 2.4595, "minutesPlayed": 86.7568, "touches": 31.0541, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1803 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1808335930109024, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18423675000667572, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6320735812187195, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03999919816851616, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5010544061660767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715065956115723, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1020, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1993, "goal_rate": 0.203, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3998, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 7.1628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3998, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3998, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.42 (squad xG sum 1.2428, xG scale 1.9504)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3998, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3998, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.911, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.42, "expected_assists": 1.26, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 795, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Marc Guéhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.2946, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Guéhi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Guéhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €66M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.295 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Rúben Dias", "Abdukodir Khusanov" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.833, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.1979, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "role": "CB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rúben Dias and Abdukodir Khusanov in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.893, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.0618, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 100000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (CDM) is evenly matched against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €100M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.551, "xg_contribution": 0.1979, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.449 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (LW) is slightly favored against Lisandro Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Luke Shaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.652, "xg_contribution": 0.193, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke Shaw", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.348 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Luke Shaw in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.835, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "xg_contribution": 0.0642, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 }, { "player": "Youri Tielemans", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kobbie Mainoo and Youri Tielemans in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.5233, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.523 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 100000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.0991, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€100M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.8, "away_midfield_power": 0.93, "home_creative_power": 0.754, "away_creative_power": 1.012, "home_defensive_power": 0.709, "away_defensive_power": 0.79, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.463, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson", "Antoine Semenyo", "Iliman Ndiaye", "Rayan Cherki" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Kobbie Mainoo vs Elliot Anderson", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.99, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.021 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.489, "away_lambda": 2.424, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Marc Guéhi", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Dias", "Abdukodir Khusanov" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luke Shaw": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diogo Dalot": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marcus Rashford": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Marc Guéhi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Luke Shaw", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Marcus Rashford" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1374, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8476, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9376, "home_midfield_factor": 0.99, "away_midfield_factor": 1.021, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7444, "away_avg_quality": 0.8689, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1245, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7396, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.6619, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6772, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.272, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1496, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.087, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1401, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1007, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester United", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.489, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.424, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.489, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.4235, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.489, "final_away_lambda": 2.424 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0703, "attack_index": 2.915, "defense_concede_index": 0.416, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 3.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6512, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 2.499, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man Utd vs Man City. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.489, Away 2.424). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.489, Away 2.424 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester United", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.489, "away_lambda": 2.424, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.489, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.424 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-13T13:30:24Z" }