{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260914", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1268, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2818, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1268 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1317 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1002 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0999 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0843 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1002, "0-1": 0.0999, "0-2": 0.0515, "0-3": 0.0175, "0-4": 0.0045, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1268, "1-1": 0.1317, "1-2": 0.0666, "1-3": 0.0226, "1-4": 0.0058, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0827, "2-1": 0.0843, "2-2": 0.043, "2-3": 0.0146, "2-4": 0.0037, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0356, "3-1": 0.0363, "3-2": 0.0185, "3-3": 0.0063, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0115, "4-1": 0.0117, "4-2": 0.006, "4-3": 0.002, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.003, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0015, "5-3": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4259, "draw": 0.2818, "away_win": 0.2923 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4071, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5929, "btts_yes": 0.4649, "btts_no": 0.5351, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2747 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 7.3, "ATR": 6.98, "GK": 6.8 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 7.35 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nicolas Pépé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Alberto Moleiro vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.292, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1317, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4259, "draw": 0.2818, "away_win": 0.2923 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4259, "fair_spread": 0.272, "fair_total": 2.312, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.292, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4071, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4649, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2747, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nicolas Pépé (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.3333, "probability": 0.2824, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2398, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.1208, "probability": 0.2025, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1495, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.312, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 982, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 52.0, "possession_away_pct": 48.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4259, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.27 goals and fair total 2.31.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Georges Mikautadze against Natan, Marc Bartra in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Nicolas Pépé; bench watchlist: Tajon Buchanan, Ilias Akhomach, Tani Oluwaseyi.", "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Troy Parrott, Nelson Deossa.", "Assist usage should flow through Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.16 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Péter Gulácsi": { "player_id": 37096, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 190, "market_value": 970000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "expected_saves": 0.9, "high_pressure_saves": 0.34, "shots_faced": 1.9, "opponent_faced": "Antony, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 616, "combined_rank_score": 318.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 409.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mender García", "ranking": 611 }, { "player_name": "José Fajardo", "ranking": 612 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 }, { "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking": 619 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€970,000) applied for position G (quality factor 0.44); FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "expected_saves": 0.9, "high_pressure_saves": 0.34, "shots_faced": 1.9, "opponent_faced": "Antony, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 0.9419, xG scale 1.3717)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "expected_saves": 0.9, "high_pressure_saves": 0.34, "shots_faced": 1.9, "opponent_faced": "Antony, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "expected_saves": 0.9, "high_pressure_saves": 0.34, "shots_faced": 1.9, "opponent_faced": "Antony, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 3.343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker 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"importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3246653974056244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6507524847984314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09583894908428192, "scale": "per match (raw)", 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0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0696, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.3473, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0674)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 0.9419, xG scale 1.3717)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.296, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, 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"opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 1.6763, "ballRecovery": 1.1342, "intensity_index": 3.21, "expectedAssists": 0.1582, "kilometersCovered": 3.9616 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.281342625617981, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { 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"bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0663, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.8044, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 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"Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 }, { "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking": 2085 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking": 2088 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Partey", "ranking": 2089 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Izzatov", "ranking": 2090 }, { "player_name": "Gyu-baeg Lee", "ranking": 2091 }, { "player_name": "Brian Oyola", "ranking": 2092 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.463, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.463, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3154732112477, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0375, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", 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"history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 39.6356, "touches_p90": 82.6216, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.1992, "totalClearance": 1.6113, "aerialWon": 1.0583 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7657561302185059, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.397958993911743, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2543370723724365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1620293855667114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8169939517974854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612357139587402, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0375, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8606, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, 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"Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.326, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", 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"duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.04, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:43.286651+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 1.4286, "ballRecovery": 1.0, "intensity_index": 9.139, "expectedAssists": 0.1545, "kilometersCovered": 7.13 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2303521633148193, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.12314200401306152, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.116575688123703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12493474781513214, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8278489112854, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.557)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1271, "rating": 6.9446, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 11.1881, "dispossessed": 3.0513, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0407, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0505)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1271, "rating": 6.9446, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 11.1881, "dispossessed": 3.0513, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0407, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 35, 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0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0128, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.25 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "rating": 6.9446, "minutes": 28, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, 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"laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4879, "combined_rank_score": 2974.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 914.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6644, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yazan Al Arab", "ranking": 4874 }, { "player_name": "Lee Chang Geun", "ranking": 4875 }, { "player_name": "Song Bum Keun", "ranking": 4876 }, { "player_name": "Renato Steffen", "ranking": 4877 }, { "player_name": "Edimilson Fernandes", "ranking": 4878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Zesiger", "ranking": 4880 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 4881 }, { "player_name": "Alvyn Sanches", "ranking": 4882 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zanotti", "ranking": 4883 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 4884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 11.9096, "touches": 4.6783, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0157 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09236608445644379, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.13130521774291992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49849429726600647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017674116417765617, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3206009864807129, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791300773620605, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 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projection scaled to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 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"accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.723, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 8.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 15.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 8.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0924, "goal_rate": 0.1313, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:47.077722+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 11.9096, "touches": 4.6783, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0157 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09236608445644379, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.13130521774291992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49849429726600647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017674116417765617, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3206009864807129, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791300773620605, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.131, "goals": 0, 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"key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6663, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, 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0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.697, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0224, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3318, "combined_rank_score": 1275.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 584.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7941, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1967.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9446, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Logan Costa", "ranking": 3313 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos 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ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0759, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 15.25, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:43.286651+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 8.1133, "ballRecovery": 5.9231, "intensity_index": 4.1303, "expectedAssists": 0.0894, "kilometersCovered": 5.8211 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.227601408958435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.12182708084583282, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09965251386165619, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0759221687912941, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.977508544921875, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.122, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.076, "rating": 6.9848, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 15.2659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0530)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.122, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.076, "rating": 6.9848, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 15.2659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 3, 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3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 74.8, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergi Cardona", "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.6070, xG scale 1.6804)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.122, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9848, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 15.2659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, 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Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 6.1323, "ballRecovery": 4.92, "intensity_index": 3.3211, "expectedAssists": 0.013, "kilometersCovered": 6.2411 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7558022141456604, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.049425989389419556, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06988852471113205, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03985055163502693, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": 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constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "rating": 6.8251, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 4.7101, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 81.5, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "rating": 6.8251, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 4.7101, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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1691 }, { "player_name": "Eli Dasa", "ranking": 1692 }, { "player_name": "Kamil Grabara", "ranking": 1693 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Bah", "ranking": 1694 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Til Mavretič", "ranking": 1696 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", 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"minutes": 156.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "shots_per90": 1.73, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5882352941176471)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "rating": 6.8634, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:43.286651+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 6.5152, "ballRecovery": 6.1749, "intensity_index": 3.1233, "expectedAssists": 0.1781, "kilometersCovered": 5.9503 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9068055748939514, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07952263951301575, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10937977582216263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.039383724331855774, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863427639007568, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9857, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "rating": 6.7652, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 3.9428, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "rating": 6.7652, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 3.9428, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 57.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "rating": 6.7652, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 3.9428, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.6070, xG scale 1.6804)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0652, "rating": 6.7652, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 3.9428, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ] }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.32851865887641907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.39232063293457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", 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"dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1111 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11755624413490295, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16053344309329987, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5576187372207642, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.025026042014360428, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35508498549461365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.795316219329834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0479, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1232, "goal_rate": 0.1682, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1232, "goal_rate": 0.1646, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 4, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.1484, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.1484, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.6070, xG scale 1.6804)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.1484, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.626, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Pablo García": { "player_id": 1893910, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 175, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.043, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, 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Racing Club", "opponent": "Alavés", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416321.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1417, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0894, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5059, "combined_rank_score": 3247.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 5917.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Philippe Sandler", "ranking": 5054 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Lotomba", "ranking": 5055 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Córdoba", "ranking": 5056 }, { "player_name": "Jari De Busser", "ranking": 5057 }, { "player_name": "Gijs Smal", "ranking": 5058 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jacob Trenskow", "ranking": 5060 }, { "player_name": "Virgil Ghiță", "ranking": 5061 }, { "player_name": "Daan Rots", "ranking": 5062 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Beelen", "ranking": 5063 }, { "player_name": "Alexandre Penetra", "ranking": 5064 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.444, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.444, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.39, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.724, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 21.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1566, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6769, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:47.077722+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304, "totalShots": 1.0, "minutesPlayed": 17.3499, "touches": 11.0408, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.148 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0948636457324028, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15658633410930634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4986003041267395, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.027170246466994286, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.46910521388053894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676891326904297, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1566, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 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Racing Club", "opponent": "Alavés", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416321.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1417, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5059, "combined_rank_score": 3247.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 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"xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.444, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.39, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.724, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 21.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1566, "goals": 0, 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0.0234, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.626, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Troy Parrott": { "player_id": 966555, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.445, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.544, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0479, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, 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"interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:47.077722+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3887, "totalShots": 1.3304, "minutesPlayed": 32.7221, "touches": 14.2546, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1111 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11755624413490295, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16053344309329987, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5576187372207642, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.025026042014360428, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35508498549461365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.795316219329834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0479, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1232, "goal_rate": 0.1682, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1232, "goal_rate": 0.1646, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.5372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.6070, xG scale 1.6804)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.1484, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.626, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.1484, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 28.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.626, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.73, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 456, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Marc Bartra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.549, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.2158, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 }, { "player": "Marc Bartra", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Marc Bartra in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.216 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Héctor Bellerín" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.431, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.651, "xg_contribution": 0.0898, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Héctor Bellerín", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.349 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (LM) has a clear attacking advantage against Héctor Bellerín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Facundo Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.554, "xg_contribution": 0.0918, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.446 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is slightly favored against Facundo Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Sergi Cardona" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0788, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (LW) is evenly matched against Sergi Cardona in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.513, "xg_contribution": 0.1619, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.487 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (RW) is slightly favored against Pau Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.0355, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Alexander Freeman", "Renato Veiga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1181, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alexander Freeman and Renato Veiga in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Bernal", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "xg_contribution": 0.0322, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Bernal (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.708, "away_midfield_power": 0.577, "home_creative_power": 0.811, "away_creative_power": 0.559, "home_defensive_power": 0.625, "away_defensive_power": 0.433, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.551, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Isco", "Antony", "Facundo Bernal", "Marc Roca" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Alberto Moleiro vs Antony", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.032, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.985 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.292, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Marc Bartra" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Héctor Bellerín", "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Bernal", "Isco", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Bernal", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Péter Gulácsi": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nicolas Pépé": { "opponents": [ "Fran García", "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gerard Moreno": { "opponents": [ "Fran García", "Héctor Bellerín" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Bartra": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Héctor Bellerín": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Facundo Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Sergi Cardona", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Pau Navarro", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Freeman", "Renato Veiga" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Pépé", "Gerard Moreno" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Pépé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Alberto Moleiro vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.021, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1427, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0429, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9815, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9542, "home_midfield_factor": 1.032, "away_midfield_factor": 0.985, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6073, "away_avg_quality": 0.5274, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0799, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.5474, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5114, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5832, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1603, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0882, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0513, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0811, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.068, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.314, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.314, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.292, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.009, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2916, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.009, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.292, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1011, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2649, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Real Betis. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.292, Away 1.009). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.292, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 8, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.314, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.314, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.292, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.292, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.009 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-14T13:30:28Z" }