{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Newcastle", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260914", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1298, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Newcastle", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.294, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1298 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1349 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1137 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1135 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0779 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1137, "0-1": 0.1298, "0-2": 0.0763, "0-3": 0.0296, "0-4": 0.0086, "0-5": 0.002, "1-0": 0.1135, "1-1": 0.1349, "1-2": 0.0779, "1-3": 0.0302, "1-4": 0.0088, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.0585, "2-1": 0.0682, "2-2": 0.0397, "2-3": 0.0154, "2-4": 0.0045, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0199, "3-1": 0.0232, "3-2": 0.0135, "3-3": 0.0052, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0051, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0034, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3164, "draw": 0.294, "away_win": 0.3896 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3733, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6267, "btts_yes": 0.4412, "btts_no": 0.5588, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3119, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.0, "MCR": 7.12, "ATR": 7.12, "GK": 7.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 7.25, "ATR": 7.24, "GK": 7.17 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Anthony Elanga", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.165, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1349, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3164, "draw": 0.294, "away_win": 0.3896 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3896, "fair_spread": -0.145, "fair_total": 2.185, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.165, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3733, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4412, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3119, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.3124, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Anthony Elanga (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.3467, "probability": 0.3146, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Elvedi (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.2892, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lewis Hall (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.2378, "probability": 0.0941, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.185, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 758, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.3, "possession_away_pct": 49.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3896, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.14 goals and fair total 2.19.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Newcastle chance creation leans on Harvey Barnes against Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Harry Wilson, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Sean Longstaff.", "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Anthony Elanga; bench watchlist: Nick Woltemade, Bazoumana Touré, Matías Fernández-Pardo.", "Assist usage should flow through Nico González; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.09 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Leeds": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Noah Okafor": { "player_id": 865523, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.2085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.194, "minutes": 55, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 3, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 51.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Tino Livramento", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Tino Livramento", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363258.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2522, "combined_rank_score": 912.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 403.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.194, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Moritz Nicolas", "ranking": 2517 }, { "player_name": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "ranking": 2518 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 }, { "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking": 2524 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.448, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.448, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0582, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 93.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.94, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.798, "minutes": 52, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:47.077722+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.6608, "minutesPlayed": 53.6404, "touches": 19.0573, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2563 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.167352095246315, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2025308609008789, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6235540509223938, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.035244621336460114, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5025946497917175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79804801940918, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0582, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.2143, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.194, "minutes": 55, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 3 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.2085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.194, "minutes": 55, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 3, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 51.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.2085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.194, "minutes": 55, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 3, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 51.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1142, "goal_rate": 0.2085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.194, "minutes": 55, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 0, 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2292, "combined_rank_score": 838.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christopher Díaz", "ranking": 2287 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Valenzuela", "ranking": 2288 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Calderón", "ranking": 2289 }, { "player_name": "Wesley", "ranking": 2290 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Chukwueze", "ranking": 2291 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergi Darder", "ranking": 2293 }, { "player_name": "Yangel Herrera", "ranking": 2294 }, { "player_name": "Cris 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"shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.016, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 5, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Elanga", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.2, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.061, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.016, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 5, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Elanga", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.2, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.061, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.016, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 5, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Elanga", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.2, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.061, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.016, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 5, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Elanga", "matchup_zone": "Shape 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"duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3146, "combined_rank_score": 1112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1780.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9454, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Valente", "ranking": 3144 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 3149 }, { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.38, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.38, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0205, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0699, "rating": 6.8061, "minutes": 59, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04990119859576225, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07204686105251312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06990418583154678, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806149959564209, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 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"fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:43.286651+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.0292, "ballRecovery": 2.4947, "intensity_index": 8.2112, "expectedAssists": 0.0112, "kilometersCovered": 8.8463 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8846831917762756, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.051858216524124146, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12065986543893814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06354966759681702, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8239030838012695, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0270, quality 0.590)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "rating": 7.0081, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 12.6628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "rating": 7.0081, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 12.6628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 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"Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.1341, xG scale 0.8994)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "rating": 7.0081, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 12.6628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 40, 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"substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8928, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaka Bijol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking": 2458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Ramos", "ranking": 2460 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Moya", "ranking": 2461 }, { "player_name": "Ji Dong-Won", "ranking": 2462 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Savarino", "ranking": 2463 }, { "player_name": "Mukhriddin Zoirov", "ranking": 2464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.453, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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"expected_goals": 0.117, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 49, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 7, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 9.9, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 36, "total_progression": 96, "progressive_carries": 9, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.82 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 35.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 35, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 3.8599, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.82, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 35.09 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 35, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 3.8599, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 2, 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"accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 35, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 3.8599, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.82, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 35.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "expected_goals": 0.041, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 35, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 3.8599, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 4, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.82, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 35.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0055, "rating": 6.8679, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 10.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363238.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8679, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", 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"Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "rating": 6.7215, "minutes": 8, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:43.286651+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 0.0, "ballRecovery": 0.0, "intensity_index": 0.9491, "expectedAssists": 0.0004, "kilometersCovered": 1.497 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.55695641040802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04408543184399605, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07082365453243256, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03593258187174797, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72153902053833, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": 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"name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03593258187174797, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72153902053833, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling 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"home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3459, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.9951, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1052, "combined_rank_score": 476.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 674.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1233, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yoane Wissa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Martinelli", "ranking": 1047 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking": 1048 }, { "player_name": "Wojciech Szczęsny", "ranking": 1049 }, { "player_name": "Matías Bórquez", "ranking": 1050 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Buongiorno", "ranking": 1051 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jong-seong Lee", "ranking": 1053 }, { "player_name": "Jun-hong Kim", "ranking": 1054 }, { "player_name": "Kim Seong-Ju", "ranking": 1055 }, { "player_name": "Zach Lisolajski", "ranking": 1056 }, { "player_name": "Izzatillo Pulatov", "ranking": 1057 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.394, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.394, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0479, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Newcastle", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 170.0, "goals_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "assists_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "shots_per90": 3.18, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Newcastle, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5263157894736842, ast/90: 0.5263157894736842)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2136, "goal_rate": 0.2508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.798, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-14T10:01:47.077722+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4595, "totalShots": 0.9189, "minutesPlayed": 86.3243, "touches": 29.8649, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1211 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.21364928781986237, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2508215010166168, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6408933997154236, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0375334694981575, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8983283042907715, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7980055809021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0479, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.3828, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0588)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.2783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.3828, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "yellowCards": 0.5263, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.17, "minutesPct": 94.4, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.59 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.2783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.3828, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "yellowCards": 0.5263, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.17, "minutesPct": 94.4, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.59 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2239, "goal_rate": 0.2783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.3828, 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"goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.3828, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 4, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "yellowCards": 0.5263, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.17, "minutesPct": 94.4, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.59, 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gls/90: 0.8333333333333334, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.05, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1438, "rating": 6.8811, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 4.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, 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"match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 30.6249, "touches_p90": 68.6434, "possessionLostCtrl": 13.1817, "totalClearance": 3.9913, "aerialWon": 1.4966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9409717321395874, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.0493578910827637, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": 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"2026-09-14T10:01:39.753962+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 38.3479, "touches_p90": 56.3382, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.1817, "totalClearance": 4.6851, "aerialWon": 3.7775 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9615803956985474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2263257503509521, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.650730550289154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.738821029663086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.6755006313323975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5964579582214355, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0858, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1623, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 9.0446, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1623, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 9.0446, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, 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match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37999385595321655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.791403770446777, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3413, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5979, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.61 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3413, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5979, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.61 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.1256, xG scale 1.0350)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3413, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5979, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.827, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3413, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Nick Woltemade": { "player_id": 980623, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 198, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8516, "dispossessed": 1.1051, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.827, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 905, "combined_rank_score": 423.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9538, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nick Woltemade", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 }, { "player_name": "Vedat Muriqi", "ranking": 902 }, { "player_name": "Seung-chan Heo", "ranking": 903 }, { "player_name": "Marco Asensio", "ranking": 904 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Choi Gi-Yun", "ranking": 906 }, { "player_name": "Seo Jae-Won", "ranking": 907 }, { "player_name": "Willyan", "ranking": 908 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Olivera", "ranking": 909 }, { "player_name": "Luiz Araújo", "ranking": 910 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1290733367204666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.44625145196914673, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1051, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.3152, "dispossessed": 1.1051, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1416, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.3152, "dispossessed": 1.1051, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 4, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 11.1, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.5 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9538, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8516, "dispossessed": 1.1051, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.827, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1307, "combined_rank_score": 566.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Savinho", "ranking": 1302 }, { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 1303 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Kalulu", "ranking": 1304 }, { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.474636121884068, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.567028914631094, "market_value_adjustment": 0.8168, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€48,000,000) scaled to 23.5 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.82)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.21, "expected_goals": 0.134, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 53, "ball_recovery": 7, "duels_won": 8, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 10.7, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.1, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.092, "ball_carries": 40, "total_progression": 105, "progressive_carries": 10 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.035, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.7909, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.567, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.47 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.035, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.7909, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.567, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.47 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.1256, xG scale 1.0350)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.7909, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.567, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.47, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.827, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.7909, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.567, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.47, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.827, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.17, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 405, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 7.15, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Tino Livramento" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1142, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Tino Livramento", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sven Botman and Tino Livramento in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 16000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.59, "defenders": [ "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "xg_contribution": 0.049, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "RB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Malick Thiaw in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.0479, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 14000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.568, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.331, "xg_contribution": 0.0618, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.669 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joe Willock", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "James Trafford" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.322, "xg_contribution": 0.1254, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Trafford", "role": "GK", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.678 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Willock (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against James Trafford in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.63, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.2418, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.242 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Miley", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Miley (CDM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.664, "away_midfield_power": 0.688, "home_creative_power": 0.501, "away_creative_power": 0.585, "home_defensive_power": 0.69, "away_defensive_power": 0.585, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.491, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ao Tanaka", "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach", "Jayden Bogle" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Joe Willock", "Lewis Miley", "Nico González" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.165, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Tino Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Tino Livramento" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tino Livramento": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Ao Tanaka", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joe Willock": { "opponents": [ "James Trafford", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "James Justin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Anthony Elanga": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9442, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.123, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1635, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8869, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9348, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6368, "away_avg_quality": 0.7295, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0927, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4127, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3149, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2286, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1704, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0937, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0545, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1116, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0793, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Leeds United", "away_squad": "Newcastle United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.93, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.165, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9297, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1646, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.165 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0161, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0161, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Leeds vs Newcastle. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.930, Away 1.165). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.165 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Leeds United", "away_squad": "Newcastle United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.165, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.93, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.165 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-14T13:30:27Z" }