{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260915", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1118, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Espanyol", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.268, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1118 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1273 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0891 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0883 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0818 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0818, "0-1": 0.1118, "0-2": 0.079, "0-3": 0.0368, "0-4": 0.0129, "0-5": 0.0036, "0-6": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0891, "1-1": 0.1273, "1-2": 0.0883, "1-3": 0.0412, "1-4": 0.0144, "1-5": 0.004, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0504, "2-1": 0.0706, "2-2": 0.0494, "2-3": 0.023, "2-4": 0.008, "2-5": 0.0023, "2-6": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0188, "3-1": 0.0263, "3-2": 0.0184, "3-3": 0.0086, "3-4": 0.003, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0053, "4-1": 0.0073, "4-2": 0.0051, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0016, "5-2": 0.0011, "5-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2995, "draw": 0.268, "away_win": 0.4325 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4605, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5395, "btts_yes": 0.508, "btts_no": 0.492, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2468, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3269 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.7, "MCR": 6.69, "ATR": 6.74, "GK": 6.8 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.68, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.118, "away_lambda": 1.399, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1273, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2995, "draw": 0.268, "away_win": 0.4325 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4325, "fair_spread": -0.281, "fair_total": 2.517, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.118, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.399, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4605, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.508, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2468, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3269, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Andrei Rațiu (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2673, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.474, "probability": 0.424, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Unai López (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.122, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1083, "probability": 0.2206, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.517, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 612, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.6, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4325, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.28 goals and fair total 2.52.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Rayo Vallecano must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Álex Calatrava against Unai López in Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jorge de Frutos, Sergio Camello, Isi Palazón.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Javi Puado, Marcos Fernández, Kike García.", "Assist usage should flow through Edu Expósito; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.26 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Rayo Vallecano is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Rayo Vallecano wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Alemão": { "player_id": 981604, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 4400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1727, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9457, "dispossessed": 1.9729, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416321.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1901, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3669, "combined_rank_score": 1628.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7385, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alemão", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jesús Gallardo", "ranking": 3664 }, { "player_name": "Otar Kiteishvili", "ranking": 3665 }, { "player_name": "James Ward-Prowse", "ranking": 3666 }, { "player_name": "Raphael Veiga", "ranking": 3667 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Ruiz", "ranking": 3668 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Paradela", "ranking": 3670 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Høgsberg", "ranking": 3671 }, { "player_name": "Haji Wright", "ranking": 3672 }, { "player_name": "Willer Ditta", "ranking": 3673 }, { "player_name": "Eren Elmalı", "ranking": 3674 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9864, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1673, "goal_rate": 0.1606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8312, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6113, "totalShots": 0.6113, "minutesPlayed": 24.8056, "touches": 11.1662, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1086 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16734261810779572, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16061089932918549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7169029116630554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02611374482512474, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7363221645355225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831192970275879, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9864, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1651, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9457, "dispossessed": 1.9729, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1651, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9457, "dispossessed": 1.9729, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1064, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9457, "dispossessed": 1.9729, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 0.6889, xG scale 1.6229)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1727, "goal_rate": 0.1584, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9457, "dispossessed": 1.9729, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, 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}, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.4547, "ballRecovery": 4.1998, "intensity_index": 4.1972, "expectedAssists": 0.2275, "kilometersCovered": 6.6743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.274190902709961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": 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"opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 23.6385, "touches_p90": 65.4441, "possessionLostCtrl": 21.2439, "totalClearance": 2.4947, "aerialWon": 0.7191 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.936650276184082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.1929771900177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": 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"player_name": "Mads Hermansen", "ranking": 3646 }, { "player_name": "Pepê", "ranking": 3647 }, { "player_name": "Finn Azaz", "ranking": 3648 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Junior Firpo", "ranking": 3650 }, { "player_name": "Bashir Humphreys", "ranking": 3651 }, { "player_name": "Altimira", "ranking": 3652 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Almirón", "ranking": 3653 }, { "player_name": "Marko Livaja", "ranking": 3654 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.442, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.442, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 24.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 23.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 24.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "rating": 6.7604, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 3.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.2335, "ballRecovery": 2.6628, "intensity_index": 2.3441, "expectedAssists": 0.0593, "kilometersCovered": 2.0037 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6632091403007507, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07189439982175827, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08671344816684723, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0298397745937109, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760403633117676, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "rating": 6.6335, "minutes": 44, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 3.2675, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.521, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.24, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.463, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9823, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 1.4285714285714286, 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"history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.9284, "totalShots": 2.6886, "minutesPlayed": 63.3091, "touches": 30.0862, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2909 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.18297164142131805, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 1.1116836071014404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7454046607017517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04512345418334007, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6121984124183655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.5290656089782715, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9823, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 1.0921, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3962, "minutes": 61, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, 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3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.4369, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4762, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 57.1, "shotConversion": 0.43, "minutesPct": 70.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.463, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.24 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and 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"minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.2335, "ballRecovery": 2.6628, "intensity_index": 2.3441, "expectedAssists": 0.0593, "kilometersCovered": 2.0037 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6632091403007507, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07189439982175827, "scale": "per match (raw)", 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0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760403633117676, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "rating": 6.6335, "minutes": 44, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, 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"importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04563311114907265, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07551756501197815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0336860828101635, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7344536781311035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0331, "rating": 6.608, 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6.608, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6769, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "rating": 6.608, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6769, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.533, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "rating": 6.608, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6769, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.3234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.3962, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 3.4369, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4762, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 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"expected_goals": 0.1773, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3542, "combined_rank_score": 1508.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2895.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3962, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Camello", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 }, { "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking": 3539 }, { "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking": 3540 }, { "player_name": "Senne Lynen", "ranking": 3541 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mio Backhaus", "ranking": 3543 }, { "player_name": "Jindřich Staněk", "ranking": 3544 }, { "player_name": "Janis Blaswich", "ranking": 3545 }, { "player_name": "Jobe Bellingham", "ranking": 3546 }, { "player_name": "Omar El Hilali", "ranking": 3547 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.521, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.521, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.24, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.463, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9823, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 1.4285714285714286, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.14 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 26.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.46); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.183, "goal_rate": 1.1117, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.5291, "minutes": 62, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 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"players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 9.0, "touches_p90": 78.75, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0, "totalClearance": 0.0, "aerialWon": 1.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5284982919692993, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2249181270599365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 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"ranking": 810 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Souza", "ranking": 812 }, { "player_name": "Teddy Teuma", "ranking": 813 }, { "player_name": "Yoel Bárcenas", "ranking": 814 }, { "player_name": "Piero Quispe", "ranking": 815 }, { "player_name": "Seung-wan Ryu", "ranking": 816 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.388, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.388, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.412, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9905, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (2 historical appearances) to 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"2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.7844, "ballRecovery": 1.9165, "intensity_index": 3.5503, "expectedAssists": 0.0111, "kilometersCovered": 5.9234 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.560601532459259, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.038196876645088196, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 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"2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.7775, "totalShots": 1.7775, "minutesPlayed": 21.1866, "touches": 7.2585, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.2686 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16322147846221924, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20346875488758087, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5663154721260071, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.018951525911688805, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 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"projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Javi Puado": { "player_id": 891511, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 7000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2281, "combined_rank_score": 901.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 834.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5889, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Javi Puado", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yves Bissouma", "ranking": 2276 }, { "player_name": "Nuriddin Nuriddinov", "ranking": 2277 }, { "player_name": "Kim Min-Ho", "ranking": 2278 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Ugarte", "ranking": 2279 }, { "player_name": "Endrick", "ranking": 2280 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bekhruz Jumatov", "ranking": 2282 }, { "player_name": "Odilon Kossounou", "ranking": 2283 }, { "player_name": "Lennart Karl", "ranking": 2284 }, { "player_name": "André", "ranking": 2285 }, { "player_name": "Tim Payne", "ranking": 2286 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.167005612512625, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5075911642051194, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4866, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€7,000,000) scaled to 22.2 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.49)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.137, "expected_goals": 0.088, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 6, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 8.4, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.07, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 7 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.40 (squad xG sum 0.8642, xG scale 1.6188)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.0689, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.4, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 336, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 6.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1064, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Omar El Hilali and Clemens Riedel in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Roger Hinojo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.077, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roger Hinojo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Roger Hinojo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Fran Pérez", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.429, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.051, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "LB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fran Pérez (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Leandro Cabrera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0525, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Álex Calatrava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.509, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0935, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Florian Lejeune and Andrei Rațiu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Emil Audero" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.1003, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Emil Audero", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Emil Audero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.1077, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (RM) is evenly matched against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álex Calatrava", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3900000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.449, "defenders": [ "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.1188, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Calatrava (CM) is evenly matched against Unai López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.501, "away_midfield_power": 0.507, "home_creative_power": 0.384, "away_creative_power": 0.407, "home_defensive_power": 0.361, "away_defensive_power": 0.447, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "Álvaro García", "Óscar Valentín", "Unai López", "Fran Pérez", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Álex Calatrava", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Edu Expósito", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.118, "away_lambda": 1.399, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Clemens Riedel" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Roger Hinojo", "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fran Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Óscar Valentín": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roger Hinojo": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Fran Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álex Calatrava": { "opponents": [ "Unai López", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Andrei Rațiu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Emil Audero", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Óscar Valentín" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Fran Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Alemão", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Giorgi Tsitaishvili vs Tyrhys Dolan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.083, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0018, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9954, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4464, "away_avg_quality": 0.4809, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0345, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4605, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.461, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7024, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1005, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0553, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0322, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0642, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0812, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.118, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.399, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1181, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.399, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.118, "final_away_lambda": 1.399 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1855, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.4904, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.118, Away 1.399). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.118, Away 1.399 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.118, "away_lambda": 1.399, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.118, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.399 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T13:31:09Z" }