{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260915", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-4", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 4, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.072, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0657, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.072 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0703 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0667 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0651 }, { "score": "1-5", "probability": 0.0621 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0049, "0-1": 0.0209, "0-2": 0.0453, "0-3": 0.0651, "0-4": 0.0703, "0-5": 0.0607, "0-6": 0.0436, "0-7": 0.0269, "0-8": 0.0145, "0-9": 0.007, "1-0": 0.0049, "1-1": 0.0215, "1-2": 0.0464, "1-3": 0.0667, "1-4": 0.072, "1-5": 0.0621, "1-6": 0.0447, "1-7": 0.0275, "1-8": 0.0149, "1-9": 0.0071, "2-0": 0.0025, "2-1": 0.011, "2-2": 0.0237, "2-3": 0.0341, "2-4": 0.0368, "2-5": 0.0318, "2-6": 0.0229, "2-7": 0.0141, "2-8": 0.0076, "2-9": 0.0036, "3-0": 0.0009, "3-1": 0.0038, "3-2": 0.0081, "3-3": 0.0117, "3-4": 0.0126, "3-5": 0.0109, "3-6": 0.0078, "3-7": 0.0048, "3-8": 0.0026, "3-9": 0.0012, "4-1": 0.001, "4-2": 0.0021, "4-3": 0.003, "4-4": 0.0032, "4-5": 0.0028, "4-6": 0.002, "4-7": 0.0012, "4-8": 0.0007, "5-3": 0.0006, "5-4": 0.0007, "5-5": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0399, "draw": 0.0657, "away_win": 0.8944 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8999, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1001, "btts_yes": 0.6322, "btts_no": 0.3678, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0135, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3592 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.49, "MCR": 6.77, "ATR": 6.27, "GK": 7.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.28, "MCR": 7.58, "ATR": 8.21, "GK": 7.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-4. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Abiel Osorio, Kylian Mbappé (3), Vinícius Júnior", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.36, Away: 1.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 1.024, "away_lambda": 4.316, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0399, "draw": 0.0657, "away_win": 0.8944 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8944, "fair_spread": -3.292, "fair_total": 5.34, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.024, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 4.316, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8999, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6322, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0135, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3592, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Facundo Buonanotte (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1896, "probability": 0.1517, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 2.132, "probability": 0.9784, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gonzalo Villar (Elche)", "estimate": 0.127, "probability": 0.1988, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1911, "probability": 0.2591, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.34, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 935, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 46.4, "possession_away_pct": 53.6, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8944, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -3.29 goals and fair total 5.34.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Víctor Chust, Buba Sangaré in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Abiel Osorio; bench watchlist: Martim Neto, Ezequiel Ponce, Fernando Niño.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (3), Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Yan Diomande, Rodrygo.", "Assist usage should flow through Gonzalo Villar, Jude Bellingham; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 2.67 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Matías Dituro": { "player_id": 556884, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 105000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0669, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 54, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.4919, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.3333, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 43.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 2.71, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "shots_faced": 5.8, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416322.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416319.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.4831 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.816 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6783 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7246 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3074, "combined_rank_score": 1043.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 134.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3636, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1952.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0669, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 }, { "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking": 3071 }, { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Elche, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.2021, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 56, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.75, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6862, "touches": 54.621, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 31.2206, "punches": 0.3138, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8999, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6862 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8310775756835938, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ] }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.202098846435547, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0669, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 54, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.4919, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0669, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 54, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.4919, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, 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0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.3333, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 43.8, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0669, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 54, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, 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0.21470843255519867, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.25694382190704346, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6622841954231262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": 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"minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.1303, "ballRecovery": 3.5374, "intensity_index": 6.4838, "expectedAssists": 0.0604, "kilometersCovered": 6.5447 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0604406595230103, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.11590559780597687, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": 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"player_name": "Ethan Horvath", "ranking": 5653 }, { "player_name": "Stije Resink", "ranking": 5654 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Krystof Daněk", "ranking": 5656 }, { "player_name": "Oleksandr Svatok", "ranking": 5657 }, { "player_name": "Dimitar Mitov", "ranking": 5658 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Dávila", "ranking": 5659 }, { "player_name": "Ulrik Saltnes", "ranking": 5660 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.529, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.529, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9864, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 263.0, "goals_per90": 0.3448275862068966, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.34, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, 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4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 27.696, "touches_p90": 52.2527, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.3463, "totalClearance": 1.6182, "aerialWon": 0.1927 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8244391083717346, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4188640117645264, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8255845308303833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9927140474319458, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8933558464050293, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.172, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "David Affengruber": { "player_id": 988672, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 18100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, 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16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.131, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 83, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3203, "combined_rank_score": 1157.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1979.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7945, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Affengruber", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 }, { "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking": 3200 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Palacios", "ranking": 3201 }, { "player_name": "Frederik Rønnow", "ranking": 3202 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kike Salas", "ranking": 3204 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 3206 }, { "player_name": "Pepelu", "ranking": 3207 }, { "player_name": "Dayann Methalie", "ranking": 3208 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.467, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.26342464087466, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.231, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0336, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5737, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 44, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 89, "possession_lost": 9.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.11, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 62.7473, "touches_p90": 88.4169, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.6025, "totalClearance": 3.62, "aerialWon": 1.1079 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8264799118041992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.0913875102996826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5397114157676697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1744600534439087, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8618699908256531, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.573654651641846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0336, quality 0.612)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 65, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 45, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 9.9948, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 65, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 45, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 9.9948, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.584, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.018, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.26 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Marc Aguado": { "player_id": 1014595, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "rating": 6.6298, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 0.9623, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6298, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Aguado", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Etta Eyong", "ranking": 3474 }, { "player_name": "Thilo Kehrer", "ranking": 3475 }, { "player_name": "Takumi Minamino", "ranking": 3476 }, { "player_name": "Dani Cárdenas", "ranking": 3477 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Lees-Melou", "ranking": 3478 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Angel Gomes", "ranking": 3480 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Clauss", "ranking": 3481 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Köhn", "ranking": 3482 }, { "player_name": "Leandro González Pírez", "ranking": 3483 }, { "player_name": "Mahdi Camara", "ranking": 3484 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.46, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.46, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.006629422541288, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.308, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9838, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.4545454545454545, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.31); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.1693, "ballRecovery": 3.1234, "intensity_index": 6.902, "expectedAssists": 0.0053, "kilometersCovered": 7.8188 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5154499411582947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.041433028876781464, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0626928061246872, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02841835655272007, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738767147064209, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9838, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "rating": 6.6298, "minutes": 65, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4572, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1359, "combined_rank_score": 577.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", 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"importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.5921230912208557, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7242427468299866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029567286372184753, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6163259148597717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.970613479614258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 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0.445, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.72, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9835, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 30.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6873, "minutes": 40, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2809, "totalShots": 1.0, "minutesPlayed": 42.1467, "touches": 14.0019, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.038 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08108476549386978, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10228840261697769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.44268128275871277, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02678004279732704, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.417113721370697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.687338352203369, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9835, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.1006, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0263, 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"rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0353, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5768, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.9864, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martim Neto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Guiu", "ranking": 4393 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Coronel", "ranking": 4394 }, { "player_name": "Joe Worrall", "ranking": 4395 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Osman", "ranking": 4396 }, { "player_name": "Karl Edouard Etta Eyong", "ranking": 4397 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Embarba", "ranking": 4399 }, { "player_name": "Justo Giani", "ranking": 4400 }, { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.385, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 0.6892, "ballRecovery": 0.4595, "intensity_index": 5.1545, "expectedAssists": 0.0482, "kilometersCovered": 5.2897 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5731001496315002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07724722474813461, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 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"home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4572, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1359, "combined_rank_score": 577.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 577.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8398, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fernando Niño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shakhboz Umarov", "ranking": 1354 }, { "player_name": "Ji-sol Lee", "ranking": 1355 }, { "player_name": "Marko Bakić", "ranking": 1356 }, { "player_name": "Nika Gagnidze", "ranking": 1357 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Geraldes", "ranking": 1358 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Iñigo Arguibide", "ranking": 1360 }, { "player_name": "David Larrubia", "ranking": 1361 }, { "player_name": "John Edwin Montaño", "ranking": 1362 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Xavier", "ranking": 1363 }, { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.525, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7242427468299866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029567286372184753, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6163259148597717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.970613479614258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling 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"scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.42435982823371887, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7149622440338135, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", 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} ] }, "Jude Bellingham": { "player_id": 991011, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 188, "market_value": 151000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1911, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4032, "rating": 7.8714, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 8.9587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 9.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1486, "expected_assists": 0.58, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.126, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5, "combined_rank_score": 11.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 9.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 14.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8714, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.527, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.527, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1198, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 242.0, "goals_per90": 0.7407407407407407, "assists_per90": 0.7407407407407407, "shots_per90": 2.98, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.18, gls/90: 0.7407407407407407, ast/90: 0.7407407407407407)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1706, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1234, "rating": 7.029, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 30, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.8012, "ballRecovery": 3.5675, "intensity_index": 4.9813, "expectedAssists": 0.2991, "kilometersCovered": 6.0181 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5907613039016724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.17060624063014984, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.13298074901103973, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12337898463010788, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0290093421936035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1198, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "rating": 7.8714, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 8.9587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 101, "progressive_carries": 4 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "rating": 7.8714, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 8.9587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 101, "progressive_carries": 4, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 89.6, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.86 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "rating": 7.8714, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 14, 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Víctor Chust", "opponent_faced": "Víctor Chust", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 4.32 (squad xG sum 1.4792, xG scale 2.9178)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4032, "rating": 7.8714, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 8.9587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, 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0.0464, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 77, "combined_rank_score": 111.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 84.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.54, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 138.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3596, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking": 75 }, { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 76 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking": 81 }, { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "ranking": 82 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.518, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.518, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1071, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 162.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, 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1.0, "accuratePass": 38.9467, "touches_p90": 78.3601, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.623, "totalClearance": 1.1211, "aerialWon": 1.0871 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8317455053329468, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.325954794883728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.834356427192688, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { 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"Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.448, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", 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"97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 268, "combined_rank_score": 198.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 172.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 225.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2978, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ibrahima Konaté", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "ranking": 263 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Llorente", "ranking": 264 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Sørloth", "ranking": 265 }, { "player_name": "Edgar Silva", "ranking": 266 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Rüdiger", "ranking": 267 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Henríquez", "ranking": 269 }, { "player_name": "Seong-min Hwang", "ranking": 270 }, { "player_name": "Anzur Ismoilov", "ranking": 271 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz Gonzalez", "ranking": 272 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Bidu", "ranking": 273 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", 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"model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 65.6725, "touches_p90": 81.7308, "possessionLostCtrl": 4.5549, "totalClearance": 4.3392, "aerialWon": 1.5121 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.792068600654602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 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"caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0927, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2978, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 72, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 48, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 89, "possession_lost": 4.7312, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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"weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 22.1056, "touches": 14.9625, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0895 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07105204463005066, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09672790765762329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49295711517333984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03955134004354477, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.49448156356811523, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732724189758301, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1179, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.1081, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0169)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.1063, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 4.32 (squad xG sum 1.4792, xG scale 2.9178)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, 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"rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051.0, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0538, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1021, "combined_rank_score": 454.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 210.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5264, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "ranking": 1016 }, { "player_name": "Min-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1017 }, { "player_name": "Tim Hartzell", "ranking": 1018 }, { "player_name": "Dae-kwang Lee", "ranking": 1019 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Iljutcenko", "ranking": 1020 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking": 1022 }, { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.507, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.507, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.756, "market_value_adjustment": 1.1179, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goal_rate": 0.0967, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7327, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.25, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 22.1056, "touches": 14.9625, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0895 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07105204463005066, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09672790765762329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49295711517333984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03955134004354477, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.49448156356811523, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732724189758301, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1179, quality 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"goal_rate": 0.1063, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.552, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5264, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.2242, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 22.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.552, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Rodrygo": { "player_id": 910536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3215, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1856, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.552, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 303, "combined_rank_score": 209.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 189.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.22, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrygo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Zubimendi", "ranking": 298 }, { "player_name": "Kim Min-Seung", "ranking": 299 }, { "player_name": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "ranking": 300 }, { "player_name": "Robert Lewandowski", "ranking": 301 }, { "player_name": "Matthijs de Ligt", "ranking": 302 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleksandar Šušnjar", "ranking": 304 }, { "player_name": "Brian Fariñas", "ranking": 305 }, { "player_name": "Serge Gnabry", "ranking": 306 }, { "player_name": "Kyu-baek Choi", "ranking": 307 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Reyes", "ranking": 308 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.794636121884068, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6270289146310939, "market_value_adjustment": 0.8168, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€48,000,000) scaled to 26.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.82)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.37, "goal_rate": 0.24, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.134, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 10.7, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.285, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 7 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1102, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1856, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1102, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1856, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 4.32 (squad xG sum 1.4792, xG scale 2.9178)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3215, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1856, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.552, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3215, "goal_rate": 0.0715, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.4, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.1856, "dispossessed": 1.5, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0848, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.552, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 4, "expected_goals": 4.32, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 528, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 7.54, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Abiel Osorio", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.749, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1358, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bernardo Silva", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abiel Osorio (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bernardo Silva and Marc Cucurella in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.208, "xg_contribution": 0.0539, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "role": "RB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.792 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Trent Alexander-Arnold in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €62M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Federico Redondo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.367, "xg_contribution": 0.0302, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.633 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Redondo (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonio Rüdiger in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Buonanotte", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.1396, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bernardo Silva", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Buonanotte (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bernardo Silva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.648, "xg_contribution": 0.1842, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.352 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Víctor Chust in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Facundo Buonanotte" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.587, "xg_contribution": 0.0953, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Buonanotte", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.413 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (CAM) is slightly favored against Facundo Buonanotte in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.7307, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Víctor Chust and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.731 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.374, "xg_contribution": 0.2787, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.626 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.626 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Víctor Chust and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.279 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.503, "away_midfield_power": 0.836, "home_creative_power": 0.439, "away_creative_power": 0.823, "home_defensive_power": 0.388, "away_defensive_power": 0.619, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.376, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Germán Valera", "Facundo Buonanotte", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo", "Federico Redondo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Bernardo Silva", "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.961, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.052 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.024, "away_lambda": 4.316, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Abiel Osorio": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Marc Cucurella" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Federico Redondo": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Rüdiger", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Rubén Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Abiel Osorio", "Facundo Buonanotte", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Abiel Osorio" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trent Alexander-Arnold": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Rüdiger": { "opponents": [ "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Buonanotte", "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Eduardo Camavinga": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Abiel Osorio", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Abiel Osorio" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Buonanotte vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.36, Away: 1.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1787, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9003, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0038, "home_midfield_factor": 0.961, "away_midfield_factor": 1.052, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4464, "away_avg_quality": 0.8099, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3634, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.9088, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.8264, "attack_value_gap_log": -3.0147, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.8239, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4531, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2636, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0516, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1286, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.467, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.8239, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.211, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9276, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.104, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 3.564, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.104, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 3.5642, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.024, "final_away_lambda": 4.316 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8336, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.942, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6516, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 2.499, "form_multiplier": 1.058, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.0, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Elche vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.104, Away 3.564). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.024, Away 4.316 (most likely score 1-4).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.467, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.024, "away_lambda": 4.316, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.104, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 3.564 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T13:31:17Z" }