{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260915", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1309, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Alavés", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3013, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1309 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1361 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1228 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1226 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0733 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1228, "0-1": 0.1226, "0-2": 0.0632, "0-3": 0.0215, "0-4": 0.0055, "0-5": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.1309, "1-1": 0.1361, "1-2": 0.0688, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0719, "2-1": 0.0733, "2-2": 0.0374, "2-3": 0.0127, "2-4": 0.0032, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0261, "3-1": 0.0266, "3-2": 0.0136, "3-3": 0.0046, "3-4": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0071, "4-1": 0.0072, "4-2": 0.0037, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0015, "5-1": 0.0016, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3668, "draw": 0.3013, "away_win": 0.332 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3525, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6475, "btts_yes": 0.4253, "btts_no": 0.5747, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3369 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.58, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 7.06 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.4, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.72, "GK": 6.81 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Boyé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 1.088, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1361, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3668, "draw": 0.3013, "away_win": 0.332 }, "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3668, "fair_spread": 0.068, "fair_total": 2.108, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.088, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3525, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4253, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3369, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.3655, "probability": 0.537, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo Duro (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1989, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antonio Blanco (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.0962, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Filip Ugrinić (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.0985, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 2.108, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 582, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.0, "possession_away_pct": 51.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Alavés", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3668, "script": "Alavés is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.07 goals and fair total 2.11.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Alavés lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Alavés chance creation leans on Toni Martínez against Iker Cordoba, Justin De Haas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Boyé; bench watchlist: Aitor Mañas, Mariano Díaz.", "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Diego López, Pepelu, Umar Sadiq.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Alavés tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.05 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Alavés.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Toni Martínez": { "player_id": 831253, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.3064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6543, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 86.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.55, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Cordoba, Justin De Haas", "opponent_faced": "Iker Cordoba, Justin De Haas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2264, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292.0, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3729, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2078, "combined_rank_score": 790.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 345.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9892, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6543, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking": 2073 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "ranking": 2079 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 }, { "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking": 2081 }, { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.401, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.401, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9971, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.7, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2336, "goal_rate": 0.3342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6739, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.8378, "minutesPlayed": 70.5405, "touches": 19.8108, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.2381 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2335606962442398, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.33416640758514404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6871644258499146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03191404417157173, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.489907443523407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.673861980438232, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2329, "goal_rate": 0.3332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6543, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0805)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2329, "goal_rate": 0.3064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6543, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 3, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 86.3, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.55 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2329, "goal_rate": 0.3064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6543, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 8, 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93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 38.2898, "touches_p90": 62.9583, "possessionLostCtrl": 6.1995, "totalClearance": 4.5675, "aerialWon": 0.8729 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6991983652114868, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3028639554977417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6808459758758545, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3463423252105713, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8242300152778625, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734813213348389, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0043, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7635, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.2766, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7635, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.2766, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2102, "combined_rank_score": 1109.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 797.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6238, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 1422.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "José Copete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Zdravko Dimitrov", "ranking": 2097 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Vicente", "ranking": 2098 }, { "player_name": "Nahitan Nández", "ranking": 2099 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Cook", "ranking": 2100 }, { "player_name": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "ranking": 2101 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Moreira", "ranking": 2103 }, { "player_name": "Chris Long", "ranking": 2104 }, { "player_name": 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0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06816621124744415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.028647568076848984, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828339099884033, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 6.7303, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3257, "combined_rank_score": 1203.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1961.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6061, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Umar Sadiq", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yann Aurel Bisseck", "ranking": 3252 }, { "player_name": "Christian Kofane", "ranking": 3253 }, { "player_name": "Oumar Solet", "ranking": 3254 }, { "player_name": "Boulaye Dia", "ranking": 3255 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Caqueret", "ranking": 3256 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jack Butland", "ranking": 3258 }, { "player_name": "Martin Terrier", "ranking": 3259 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Da Cunha", "ranking": 3260 }, { "player_name": "Strahinja Pavlović", "ranking": 3261 }, { "player_name": "Félix Correia", "ranking": 3262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 30.65, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.592, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9846, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 35.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost 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0.13237544894218445, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2542436122894287, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6004847884178162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": 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{ "player_name": "Jack Butland", "ranking": 3258 }, { "player_name": "Martin Terrier", "ranking": 3259 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Da Cunha", "ranking": 3260 }, { "player_name": "Strahinja Pavlović", "ranking": 3261 }, { "player_name": "Félix Correia", "ranking": 3262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 30.65, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.592, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9846, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 35.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 30.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 35.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.2542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 53, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.33, "dispossessed": 1.67, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"predicted": 0.13237544894218445, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2542436122894287, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6004847884178162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021981213241815567, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.46232953667640686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.709610462188721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": 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"fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0488)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.2652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 52, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.2324, "dispossessed": 1.6442, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 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"home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3207, "combined_rank_score": 1161.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 362.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9767, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1960.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8084, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pepelu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Frederik Rønnow", "ranking": 3202 }, { "player_name": "David Affengruber", "ranking": 3203 }, { "player_name": "Kike Salas", "ranking": 3204 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 3206 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dayann Methalie", "ranking": 3208 }, { "player_name": "Robin Gosens", "ranking": 3209 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Núñez", "ranking": 3210 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Schwäbe", "ranking": 3211 }, { "player_name": "Moi Gómez", "ranking": 3212 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.181390997643526, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.508245045347433, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9971, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "rating": 6.8283, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 6.75, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.4993, "ballRecovery": 2.846, "intensity_index": 5.5293, "expectedAssists": 0.0306, "kilometersCovered": 8.3516 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7197942733764648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04540884494781494, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06816621124744415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.028647568076848984, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828339099884033, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 6.7303, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.6587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.6587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.6713, xG scale 1.5194)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.6587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.377, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "rating": 6.8084, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.6587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.377, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.51, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 314, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 6.69, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Iker Cordoba", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1501, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Cordoba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 485000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Iker Cordoba and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carles Aleñá", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Arnau Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.0366, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carles Aleñá (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Arnau Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Jesús Vázquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.1437, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Vázquez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jesús Vázquez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Ibáñez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "xg_contribution": 0.0842, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javier Guerra", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.718 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Ibáñez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javier Guerra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.0473, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javier Guerra", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javier Guerra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "David Otorbi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 465000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.406, "defenders": [ "Jonny Otto", "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.423, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "xg_contribution": 0.0955, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 }, { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Otorbi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jonny Otto and Ville Koski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "LM vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0993, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Pérez", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (LM) is evenly matched against Ángel Pérez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ryunosuke Sato", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "RM vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.1009, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carles Aleñá", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryunosuke Sato (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carles Aleñá in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.558, "xg_contribution": 0.1307, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.442 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CM) is slightly favored against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.504, "away_midfield_power": 0.581, "home_creative_power": 0.372, "away_creative_power": 0.473, "home_defensive_power": 0.417, "away_defensive_power": 0.473, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.465, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Abderrahman Rebbach", "Carles Aleñá", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Filip Ugrinić", "Javier Guerra", "Ryunosuke Sato", "Harvey Elliott" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.984, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.012 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.088, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "RM vs LWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Iker Cordoba", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carles Aleñá": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Vázquez", "Filip Ugrinić", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra", "Harvey Elliott" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Iker Cordoba": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arnau Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jesús Vázquez": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Otorbi": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto", "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "opponents": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harvey Elliott": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Antonio Blanco vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.097, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9998, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0242, "home_midfield_factor": 0.984, "away_midfield_factor": 1.012, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4512, "away_avg_quality": 0.5056, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0544, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.668, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7882, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5488, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1379, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0758, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0441, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0563, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0683, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.088, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.65, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0882, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6485, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.088, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6517, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.874, "form_multiplier": 1.059, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.25, "team_ppg": 2.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6283, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.941, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 2.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Alavés vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.088, Away 0.648). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.088, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.088, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.088, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.648 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T13:30:42Z" }