{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260916", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1239, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Athletic Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2727, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1239 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1286 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0913 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.091 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0883 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0913, "0-1": 0.1239, "0-2": 0.0866, "0-3": 0.04, "0-4": 0.0138, "0-5": 0.0038, "0-6": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.091, "1-1": 0.1286, "1-2": 0.0883, "1-3": 0.0408, "1-4": 0.0141, "1-5": 0.0039, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.047, "2-1": 0.065, "2-2": 0.045, "2-3": 0.0208, "2-4": 0.0072, "2-5": 0.002, "3-0": 0.016, "3-1": 0.0221, "3-2": 0.0153, "3-3": 0.0071, "3-4": 0.0024, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0041, "4-1": 0.0056, "4-2": 0.0039, "4-3": 0.0018, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2757, "draw": 0.2727, "away_win": 0.4516 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4316, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5684, "btts_yes": 0.4804, "btts_no": 0.5196, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2503, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 7.18 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 7.12, "ATR": 6.41, "GK": 8.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Maroan Sannadi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.385, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1286, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2757, "draw": 0.2727, "away_win": 0.4516 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4516, "fair_spread": -0.365, "fair_total": 2.405, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.385, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4316, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4804, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2503, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.2554, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oihan Sancet (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.4753, "probability": 0.1992, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrián de la Fuente (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1872, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1052, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.405, "expected_total_shots": 17, "expected_total_passes": 666, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.5, "possession_home_pct": 47.4, "possession_away_pct": 52.6, "notes": "Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4516, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.36 goals and fair total 2.40.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 8 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Oihan Sancet against Manuel Sánchez in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Hugo Sotelo.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Maroan Sannadi; bench watchlist: Beñat Prados, Álvaro Djaló.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 8 total first-half shots, and 1.20 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Levante": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Thiago Fernández": { "player_id": 1201412, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 175, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1652, "rating": 6.8105, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 6.2512, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 54.8, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.22, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 4.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Levante", "opponent": "Barcelona", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3621, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "expected_assists": 0.2341, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0479, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3756, "combined_rank_score": 1748.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2919.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8105, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Thiago Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ezequiel Piovi", "ranking": 3751 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pflücke", "ranking": 3752 }, { "player_name": "Junya Ito", "ranking": 3753 }, { "player_name": "Mario Martín", "ranking": 3754 }, { "player_name": "Doğucan Haspolat", "ranking": 3755 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarne Steuckers", "ranking": 3757 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Gomes", "ranking": 3758 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 3759 }, { "player_name": "Joel Ordoñez", "ranking": 3760 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Lecomte", "ranking": 3761 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.454, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9875, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Levante", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 148.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.22, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Levante, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0635, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1475, "rating": 6.8964, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 6.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.0089, "ballRecovery": 2.5549, "intensity_index": 5.7974, "expectedAssists": 0.0908, "kilometersCovered": 7.9204 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0836577415466309, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06352031230926514, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08152002841234207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14752715826034546, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.896404266357422, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9875, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1457, "rating": 6.8105, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 6.2512, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended 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"player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking": 4003 }, { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 4005 }, { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.522, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", 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"step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0180)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "rating": 6.9171, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 3.0761, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 0, 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"total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0488)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7588, "minutes": 69, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 6.9744, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, 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}, { "player_name": "Adnan Januzaj", "ranking": 1715 }, { "player_name": "Cho Jin-hyuk", "ranking": 1716 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", 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"description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6854, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 11.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.07, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 5.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 21.4295, "touches_p90": 57.098, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.6152, "totalClearance": 2.2157, "aerialWon": 2.2245 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7595540285110474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6248805522918701, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0624773502349854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.119369387626648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8099606037139893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.685442924499512, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9905, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 10.8955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 10.8955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.63 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.6579, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6219, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3281, "combined_rank_score": 1223.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1573.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Beñat Prados", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking": 3276 }, { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 3280 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Zlatko Tripić", "ranking": 3282 }, { "player_name": "Omari Hutchinson", "ranking": 3283 }, { "player_name": "Fabian 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"expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1649, "expected_assists": 0.2617, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4167, "combined_rank_score": 2176.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 856.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3497.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8825, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Peio Canales", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Forbs", "ranking": 4162 }, { "player_name": "Kees Smit", "ranking": 4163 }, { "player_name": "Tjaronn Chery", "ranking": 4164 }, { "player_name": "Nick Olij", "ranking": 4165 }, { "player_name": "Anel Ahmedhodžić", "ranking": 4166 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vasilios Barkas", "ranking": 4168 }, { "player_name": "Charles Vanhoutte", "ranking": 4169 }, { "player_name": "Allan", "ranking": 4170 }, { "player_name": "Yoann Cathline", "ranking": 4171 }, { "player_name": "Mika Mármol", "ranking": 4172 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.46, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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0.3887, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.5831, "ballRecovery": 2.5617, "intensity_index": 5.266, "expectedAssists": 0.0796, "kilometersCovered": 8.6838 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8329572677612305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0794806182384491, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": 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0.442, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5365, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, 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"per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10013467818498611, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15687882900238037, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.48796364665031433, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": 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"fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 5.8454, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Djaló", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Albert Rusnák", "ranking": 3955 }, { "player_name": "Diego Valdés", "ranking": 3956 }, { "player_name": "Timo Werner", "ranking": 3957 }, { "player_name": "Mateusz Bogusz", "ranking": 3958 }, { "player_name": "Aritz Elustondo", "ranking": 3959 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Allan Saint-Maximin", "ranking": 3961 }, { "player_name": "Milot Rashica", "ranking": 3962 }, { "player_name": "Jeppe Tverskov", "ranking": 3963 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Espinoza", "ranking": 3964 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Valle", "ranking": 3965 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.72, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9861, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 10.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 16.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 10.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1242, "goal_rate": 0.2426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.928, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 9.0, "touches": 5.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12423532456159592, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2425592541694641, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5578581094741821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029674675315618515, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33164870738983154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 5.928001880645752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9861, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.9582, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.9582, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -9.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5558, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5558, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.7361, xG scale 1.8815)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5558, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5558, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Álvaro Djaló": { "player_id": 1160960, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 176, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5558, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 3.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3960, "combined_rank_score": 1935.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2911.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 5.8454, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Djaló", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Albert Rusnák", "ranking": 3955 }, { "player_name": "Diego Valdés", "ranking": 3956 }, { "player_name": "Timo Werner", "ranking": 3957 }, { "player_name": "Mateusz Bogusz", "ranking": 3958 }, { "player_name": "Aritz Elustondo", "ranking": 3959 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Allan Saint-Maximin", "ranking": 3961 }, { "player_name": "Milot Rashica", "ranking": 3962 }, { "player_name": "Jeppe Tverskov", "ranking": 3963 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Espinoza", "ranking": 3964 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Valle", "ranking": 3965 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.72, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9861, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": 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"scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2425592541694641, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5578581094741821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9861, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.8454, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.9582, "dispossessed": 1.9721, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, 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"fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.7361, xG scale 1.8815)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0482, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0482, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.39, "expected_assists": 0.48, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 293, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 6.97, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Aitor Paredes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.488, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.2252, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (LW) is evenly matched against Aitor Paredes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.225 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.0379, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CDM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.1579, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (CM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nico Williams", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.645, "xg_contribution": 0.1804, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.355 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico Williams (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.180 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Manuel Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.601, "xg_contribution": 0.3192, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.399 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Manuel Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.319 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.0974, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (CAM) is evenly matched against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Maroan Sannadi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Nacho Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.409, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.1441, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 }, { "player": "Nacho Pérez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Maroan Sannadi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aïssa Mandi and Nacho Pérez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.412, "defenders": [ "Thiago Fernández" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.458, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "xg_contribution": 0.0304, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Thiago Fernández", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Thiago Fernández in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.492, "away_midfield_power": 0.661, "home_creative_power": 0.376, "away_creative_power": 0.544, "home_defensive_power": 0.376, "away_defensive_power": 0.588, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.426, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Thiago Fernández", "Roger Brugué", "Enzo Bardeli", "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nico Williams", "Oihan Sancet", "Álex Berenguer", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.968, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.029 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.385, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Paredes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nacho Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Aitor Paredes": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Williams": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Sánchez", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maroan Sannadi": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Nacho Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Johaneko Louis Jean": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hugo Rincón": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0173, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1415, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0031, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0064, "home_midfield_factor": 0.968, "away_midfield_factor": 1.029, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4449, "away_avg_quality": 0.5328, "avg_quality_gap": -0.088, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.0816, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.1762, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.2291, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2436, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.134, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.078, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0688, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.059, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.977, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.385, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9769, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3845, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.385 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.03, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1154, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.977, Away 1.385). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.385 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.385, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.977, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.385 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:31:32Z" }