{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Atl. Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260916", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0993, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atl. Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2076, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0993 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0964 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0946 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0908 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0686 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0446, "0-1": 0.0458, "0-2": 0.0243, "0-3": 0.0085, "0-4": 0.0022, "1-0": 0.0908, "1-1": 0.0964, "1-2": 0.0503, "1-3": 0.0176, "1-4": 0.0046, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0946, "2-1": 0.0993, "2-2": 0.0522, "2-3": 0.0183, "2-4": 0.0048, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0653, "3-1": 0.0686, "3-2": 0.036, "3-3": 0.0126, "3-4": 0.0033, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0338, "4-1": 0.0355, "4-2": 0.0187, "4-3": 0.0065, "4-4": 0.0017, "5-0": 0.014, "5-1": 0.0147, "5-2": 0.0077, "5-3": 0.0027, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0048, "6-1": 0.0051, "6-2": 0.0027, "6-3": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0014, "7-1": 0.0015, "7-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6084, "draw": 0.2076, "away_win": 0.184 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6036, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3964, "btts_yes": 0.5687, "btts_no": 0.4313, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3499, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1259 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.21, "MCR": 7.25, "ATR": 7.42, "GK": 7.15 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.57, "MCR": 6.78, "ATR": 7.33, "GK": 6.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ademola Lookman (2), Ante Budimir", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 2.072, "away_lambda": 1.05, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6084, "draw": 0.2076, "away_win": 0.184 }, "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6084, "fair_spread": 1.022, "fair_total": 3.122, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 2.072, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6036, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5687, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1259, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ademola Lookman (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.4822, "probability": 0.6702, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.4665, "probability": 0.6379, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1336, "probability": 0.1889, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Romain Del Castillo (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.135, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.122, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 794, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 52.9, "possession_away_pct": 47.1, "notes": "Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6084, "script": "Atl. Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.02 goals and fair total 3.12.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atl. Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Cristian Romero, Dávid Hancko in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Ademola Lookman (2); bench watchlist: Julián Alvarez, Jonathan David, José María Giménez.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Aimar Oroz, Raúl García de Haro, Kike Barja.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atl. Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.56 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atl. Madrid.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Atl. Madrid": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Cristian Romero": { "player_id": 829932, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 185, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2741, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 2.1853, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3762, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 205, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1434, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416332.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atl. Madrid", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Atl. Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416317.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 332, "combined_rank_score": 222.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 72.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.58, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 372.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2741, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 }, { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0927, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6572, "minutes": 31, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 2.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.18, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 188, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 33.0, "touches_p90": 116.129, "possessionLostCtrl": 2.0, "totalClearance": 1.0, "aerialWon": 1.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0141301155090332, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.270712971687317, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8978679180145264, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.371165752410889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.250320315361023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657227516174316, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0927, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2741, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 2.1853, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 205, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2741, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 2.1853, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 205, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2741, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 2.1853, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 205, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2741, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 2.1853, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 205, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum 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"player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", 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"totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1738511323928833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7116943001747131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.154016017913818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { 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6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6522, "totalShots": 1.7262, "minutesPlayed": 71.0623, "touches": 32.0507, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2021 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2801308333873749, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": 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"xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 18.5355, "touches_p90": 91.2245, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0496, "totalClearance": 4.2653, "aerialWon": 1.38 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.647861897945404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1319749355316162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5118085741996765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3218700885772705, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8946877717971802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747500419616699, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 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"expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 3.0053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.7594, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, 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"crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 2.5, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 13.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.43, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.607, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.906, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", 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"Pablo Barrios", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 }, { "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking": 244 }, { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 }, { "player_name": "Arda Güler", "ranking": 250 }, { "player_name": "David Raum", "ranking": 251 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.523, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.523, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, 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"weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 6.6343, "ballRecovery": 4.7638, "intensity_index": 6.9878, "expectedAssists": 0.1293, "kilometersCovered": 8.9974 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9510746598243713, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09984999895095825, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { 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"numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.906444072723389, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1058, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1104, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "rating": 7.637, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 404, "combined_rank_score": 257.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 204.0, "sofascore_rating": 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"xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", 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0.0993657261133194, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.12301922589540482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5700802803039551, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": 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0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 4, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 9.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.5495, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.452, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, 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"player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.522, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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"progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 2.6747, "totalShots": 3.8274, "minutesPlayed": 74.9225, "touches": 26.5066, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2251 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.45182207226753235, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.7467862367630005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9959222078323364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02341843582689762, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7086732983589172, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.4712300300598145, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": 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} } ] }, "Raúl Moro": { "player_id": 980383, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 169, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1369, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.4206, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, 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"kilometersCovered": 6.1133 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7993541359901428, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08215338736772537, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09654798358678818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3935, "combined_rank_score": 1918.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3501.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6356, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kike Barja", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adrián Bernabé", "ranking": 3930 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Castaño", "ranking": 3931 }, { "player_name": "Ardon Jashari", "ranking": 3932 }, { "player_name": "Maduka Okoye", "ranking": 3933 }, { "player_name": "João Mário", "ranking": 3934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Reyna", "ranking": 3936 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ranking": 3937 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 3938 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Coco", "ranking": 3939 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Rowe", "ranking": 3940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.448, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.448, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.33, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.591, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 16.3 expected 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"minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11843229830265045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5147631168365479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 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"tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.1401, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6356, "minutes": 29, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Kike Barja": { "player_id": 591132, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0254, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6356, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3935, "combined_rank_score": 1918.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3501.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC 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"data_confidence": 0.448, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.33, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.591, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 16.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.1184, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7625, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 3.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304, "totalShots": 1.0496, "minutesPlayed": 30.3469, "touches": 17.1127, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08837081491947174, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11843229830265045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5147631168365479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03765864670276642, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.42273765802383423, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.762533664703369, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.1162, "goals": 0, 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0.33, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.99, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0254, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6356, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3320, "combined_rank_score": 1277.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6936, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 }, { "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking": 3324 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.454, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.454, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.439, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9956, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 14.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.44); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 50, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 13.1226, "ballRecovery": 2.5462, "intensity_index": 6.4336, "expectedAssists": 0.0397, "kilometersCovered": 6.1133 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7993541359901428, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08215338736772537, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09654798358678818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05119125545024872, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7230682373046875, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 50, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 50, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.6 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.3204, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.6, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.3204, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.6, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 0.6433, xG scale 1.6322)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.3204, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.6, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.323, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6936, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.3204, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.6, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.6, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.323, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.49, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 320, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 6.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.438, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.2521, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abel Bretones and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.252 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Koke", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Asier Osambela" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0365, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Asier Osambela", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Koke (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Asier Osambela in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "xg_contribution": 0.1453, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.617 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Romain Del Castillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.6, "xg_contribution": 0.1536, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Romain Del Castillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.4 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Romain Del Castillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Romain Del Castillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.531, "xg_contribution": 0.1094, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Romain Del Castillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.469 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (CDM) is slightly favored against Romain Del Castillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raúl Moro", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "xg_contribution": 0.075, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl Moro (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Alejandro Grimaldo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Torró", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.434, "defenders": [ "Koke" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Koke", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Torró (RW) is evenly matched against Koke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.757, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.0368, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Baena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Baena and Kang-in Lee in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €36M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2858, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Romain Del Castillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Alex Baena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.065, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Baena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Romain Del Castillo (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Baena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.729, "away_midfield_power": 0.51, "home_creative_power": 0.648, "away_creative_power": 0.419, "home_defensive_power": 0.599, "away_defensive_power": 0.386, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.589, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Koke", "Giuliano Simeone", "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Alex Baena" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Raúl Moro", "Jonathan Dubasin", "Romain Del Castillo", "Lucas Torró", "Jon Moncayola" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.037, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.968 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.072, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Koke": { "opponents": [ "Asier Osambela", "Lucas Torró", "Raúl Moro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Raúl Moro", "Lucas Torró" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Romain Del Castillo", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Romain Del Castillo", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Asier Osambela": { "opponents": [ "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Romain Del Castillo": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl Moro": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Torró": { "opponents": [ "Koke", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Giuliano Simeone vs Jon Moncayola). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1152, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.159, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0016, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9045, "home_midfield_factor": 1.037, "away_midfield_factor": 0.968, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7143, "away_avg_quality": 0.4594, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2549, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.7365, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.5785, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.673, "elite_count_gap": 4, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5122, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2817, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1639, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1063, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0436, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.728, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.726, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5122, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1331, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9588, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.829, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.983, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.072, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.942, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8287, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.983, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.072, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2796, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1124, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.829, Away 0.983). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.072, Away 1.050 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.728, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.726, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.072, "away_lambda": 1.05, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.829, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.983 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:31:09Z" }