{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "R. Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260916", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-0", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1135, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0993, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1135 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1077 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0898 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0769 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0729 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0217, "0-1": 0.0144, "0-2": 0.0049, "0-3": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.068, "1-1": 0.0462, "1-2": 0.0156, "1-3": 0.0035, "1-4": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.1077, "2-1": 0.0729, "2-2": 0.0247, "2-3": 0.0056, "2-4": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.1135, "3-1": 0.0769, "3-2": 0.026, "3-3": 0.0059, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0898, "4-1": 0.0608, "4-2": 0.0206, "4-3": 0.0046, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0568, "5-1": 0.0385, "5-2": 0.013, "5-3": 0.0029, "6-0": 0.0299, "6-1": 0.0203, "6-2": 0.0069, "6-3": 0.0015, "7-0": 0.0135, "7-1": 0.0092, "7-2": 0.0031, "7-3": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0053, "8-1": 0.0036, "8-2": 0.0012, "9-0": 0.0019, "9-1": 0.0013 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8523, "draw": 0.0993, "away_win": 0.0485 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7371, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2629, "btts_yes": 0.4712, "btts_no": 0.5288, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5081, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0424 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.02, "MCR": 7.71, "ATR": 7.39, "GK": 7.75 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.62, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 7.05, "GK": 7.11 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Raphinha, Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.78, "home_lambda": 3.163, "away_lambda": 0.677, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8523, "draw": 0.0993, "away_win": 0.0485 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8523, "fair_spread": 2.486, "fair_total": 3.84, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.163, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 0.677, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7371, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4712, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5081, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0424, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.8817, "probability": 0.4182, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yassir Zabiri (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1799, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.1782, "probability": 0.2467, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1392, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.84, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 784, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 53.8, "possession_away_pct": 46.2, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8523, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.49 goals and fair total 3.84.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; R. Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Lamine Yamal against Pablo Ramón in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Raphinha, Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal; bench watchlist: Anthony Gordon, Gabriel Jesus.", "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Andrés Martín, Giorgi Guliashvili, Asier Villalibre.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.92 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If R. Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "R. Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Raphinha": { "player_id": 831005, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0945, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.568, "rating": 7.7477, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.8614, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.6819, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.4511, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 70.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 83.7, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 3.19, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.656, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.7707, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1361, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 4.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2971, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2998, "expected_assists": 0.3009, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7976, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 2.0042, "expected_assists": 0.3631, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 10, "combined_rank_score": 17.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 2.0, "sofascore_rating": 9.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.7477, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 }, { "player_name": "Adrián", "ranking": 14 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 15 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.525, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.525, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1077, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 226.0, "goals_per90": 2.0, "assists_per90": 0.4, "shots_per90": 3.98, "shots_on_target_pct": 70.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 2.0, ast/90: 0.4)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.145, "rating": 6.9945, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 1.5, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.31, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 9.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 1.4475, "ballRecovery": 1.3138, "intensity_index": 14.5497, "expectedAssists": 0.2076, "kilometersCovered": 9.3196 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1880089044570923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08526932448148727, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12555770576000214, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1449814736843109, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.994534015655518, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1077, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, 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"position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6862, "totalShots": 0.6862, "minutesPlayed": 27.0484, "touches": 14.8575, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1394 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.15737740695476532, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.17326940596103668, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7454859614372253, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.054691556841135025, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7324709296226501, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.802022457122803, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": 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"interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1709, "goal_rate": 0.2077, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3855, "minutes": 31, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.1575, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.076, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.443, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1872, "combined_rank_score": 722.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 217.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1227.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3786, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Bernal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Fydriszewski", "ranking": 1871 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Calebe Gonçalves", "ranking": 1873 }, { "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking": 1874 }, { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.523, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.523, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 204.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4347826086956522, "shots_per90": 1.32, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, 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"goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 8.3136, "ballRecovery": 5.3182, "intensity_index": 4.086, "expectedAssists": 0.0685, "kilometersCovered": 6.6339 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.050844430923462, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06398198008537292, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 45.6526, "touches_p90": 122.9684, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.3761, "totalClearance": 1.6075, "aerialWon": 0.7262 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8788685202598572, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ] }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0877337455749512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.655858516693115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1083, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.3764, "minutes": 47, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 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{ "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1930352449417114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7624102830886841, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.330880165100098, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 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"ranking": 5502 }, { "player_name": "Theo Bair", "ranking": 5503 }, { "player_name": "Lisandro Magallán", "ranking": 5504 }, { "player_name": "Jaouen Hadjam", "ranking": 5505 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", 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"ballRecovery": 4.553, "intensity_index": 10.8524, "expectedAssists": 0.1672, "kilometersCovered": 9.3281 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9940246939659119, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09264817088842392, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.14251212775707245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16718050837516785, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815883636474609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1672, "rating": 6.8181, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 15.0049, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "rating": 6.8181, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.7053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.22 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "rating": 6.8181, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.7053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.22 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.68 (squad xG sum 0.6859, xG scale 0.9870)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "rating": 6.8181, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.7053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.22, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.25, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "rating": 6.8181, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.7053, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.22, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.25, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.68, "expected_assists": 0.61, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 335, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.656, "xg_contribution": 0.2158, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.344 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Alvaro Mantilla in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.216 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.685, "xg_contribution": 0.3456, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.315 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.346 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "xg_contribution": 0.0647, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.577 }, { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.577 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (CAM) is evenly matched against Iván Martín and Matteo Prati in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.53, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.1406, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorge Salinas and Jeanuël Belocian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marc Bernal", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.594, "xg_contribution": 0.0471, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.406 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Bernal (CDM) is slightly favored against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Andreas Christensen" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.495, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.1123, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andreas Christensen", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Andreas Christensen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.043, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "LB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Marc Bernal", "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.805, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0323, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Bernal and Pedri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "João Cancelo", "Eric García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1823, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Eric García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against João Cancelo and Eric García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Marc Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.246, "xg_contribution": 0.0381, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.754 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.893, "away_midfield_power": 0.518, "home_creative_power": 0.822, "away_creative_power": 0.437, "home_defensive_power": 0.699, "away_defensive_power": 0.43, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.633, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Raphinha", "Dani Olmo", "Lamine Yamal", "Marc Bernal", "Pedri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati", "Sergio Canales", "Pablo García", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.051, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.955 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.163, "away_lambda": 0.677, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andreas Christensen": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eric García": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Marc Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Andreas Christensen", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Marc Bernal", "Pedri", "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "João Cancelo", "Eric García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Pablo García). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0771, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.047, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.984, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9317, "home_midfield_factor": 1.051, "away_midfield_factor": 0.955, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.764, "away_avg_quality": 0.4757, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2883, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.3114, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.3649, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.5416, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6592, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3625, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2109, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1211, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0672, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6592, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1698, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9441, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.704, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.717, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.7041, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7172, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.163, "final_away_lambda": 0.677 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6516, "attack_index": 3.54, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.058, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 4.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8117, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 0.416, "form_multiplier": 0.942, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs R. Racing Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.704, Away 0.717). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.163, Away 0.677 (most likely score 3-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.163, "away_lambda": 0.677, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.704, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.717 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:31:17Z" }