{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260916", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1247, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Deportivo", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2749, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1247 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1294 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0934 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.093 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0874 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0934, "0-1": 0.093, "0-2": 0.048, "0-3": 0.0163, "0-4": 0.0042, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1247, "1-1": 0.1294, "1-2": 0.0654, "1-3": 0.0222, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0857, "2-1": 0.0874, "2-2": 0.0446, "2-3": 0.0152, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0389, "3-1": 0.0397, "3-2": 0.0203, "3-3": 0.0069, "3-4": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0133, "4-1": 0.0135, "4-2": 0.0069, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0036, "5-1": 0.0037, "5-2": 0.0019, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4456, "draw": 0.2749, "away_win": 0.2796 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4258, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5742, "btts_yes": 0.4769, "btts_no": 0.5231, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2559 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.56, "MCR": 6.83, "ATR": 6.99, "GK": 7.03 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.65, "GK": 6.77 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.363, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1294, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4456, "draw": 0.2749, "away_win": 0.2796 }, "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4456, "fair_spread": 0.343, "fair_total": 2.383, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.363, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4258, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4769, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2559, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.5496, "probability": 0.5506, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chidera Ejuke (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2427, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Giacomo Quagliata (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1276, "probability": 0.0427, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lucien Agoumé (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.0898, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.383, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 597, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.1, "possession_home_pct": 50.6, "possession_away_pct": 49.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4456, "script": "Deportivo is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.34 goals and fair total 2.38.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sevilla must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Deportivo lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Deportivo chance creation leans on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang against Andrés Castrin, Juan Iglesias in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; bench watchlist: Jonathan Asp Jensen, Bil Nsongo.", "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Youssouf Fofana, Lucas Stassin, Rubén Vargas.", "Assist usage should flow through Lorenzo Amatucci; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Deportivo tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.19 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sevilla is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Deportivo.", "Sevilla wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Deportivo": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang": { "player_id": 51498, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 187, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5496, "goal_rate": 1.052, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1791, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.6045, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5691, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 70.0, "shotConversion": 0.3, "minutesPct": 97.8, "pointsPerMatch": 1.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.68, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés Castrin, Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Andrés Castrin, Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5506, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1252, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Deportivo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.4488, "expected_assists": 0.1426, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0563, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1110, "combined_rank_score": 498.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 944.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Tzolakis", "ranking": 1105 }, { "player_name": "Pau Torres", "ranking": 1106 }, { "player_name": "Ju-yeong Jo", "ranking": 1107 }, { "player_name": "Lee Dong-hyeop", "ranking": 1108 }, { "player_name": "Alphonso Davies", "ranking": 1109 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Arihiro Sentoku", "ranking": 1111 }, { "player_name": "Leonel González", "ranking": 1112 }, { "player_name": "Veldin Hodža", "ranking": 1113 }, { "player_name": "Breno Bidon", "ranking": 1114 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.529, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.529, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Dep. A Coruña", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 264.0, "goals_per90": 1.0344827586206895, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.41, "shots_on_target_pct": 70.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Dep. A Coruña, rel: 0.19, gls/90: 1.0344827586206895, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4559, "goal_rate": 1.0735, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3165, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 7.75, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.58, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 46, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 9.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.9529, "totalShots": 3.3408, "minutesPlayed": 89.0364, "touches": 29.4297, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.4142 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.4558940529823303, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 1.073490858078003, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.0436612367630005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0861700177192688, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1097466945648193, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.316478729248047, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4473, "goal_rate": 1.0533, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1791, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.6045, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5691, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 2 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0698)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4473, "goal_rate": 1.052, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.1791, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.6045, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, 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{ "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ] }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2057336568832397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ] }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6773873567581177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ] }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9929, "minutesPlayed": 70.0304, "touches": 16.9088, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.002 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.23036593198776245, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15792512893676758, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5394484400749207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02773035131394863, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ] }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6225131750106812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 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"expectedAssists": 0.0318, "kilometersCovered": 4.39 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5002637505531311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04134318232536316, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07266411185264587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 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0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.073, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, 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"away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1863, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.143, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 2, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.451, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 30.13, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.593, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9894, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, 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"fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304, "totalShots": 0.8921, "minutesPlayed": 36.0593, "touches": 17.8299, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.031 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09254942089319229, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ] }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20536155998706818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ] }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49406471848487854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"target": "rating", "predicted": 6.771543025970459, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9894, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.2032, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 7.5886, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0352)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.2231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6997, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 7.5886, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, 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"2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 9.0, "ballRecovery": 2.0, "intensity_index": 3.325, "expectedAssists": 0.0065, "kilometersCovered": 2.75 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5100430250167847, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03423307463526726, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": 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"name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0201, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 5.1006, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, 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"accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 857, "combined_rank_score": 406.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 739.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0779, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Youssouf Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Trossard", "ranking": 852 }, { "player_name": "André-Franck Zambo Anguissa", "ranking": 853 }, { "player_name": "Igor Thiago", "ranking": 854 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Alikulov", "ranking": 855 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Musiala", "ranking": 856 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Chapman", "ranking": 858 }, { "player_name": "Brad Tapp", "ranking": 859 }, { "player_name": "Éderson", "ranking": 860 }, { "player_name": "Machop Chol", "ranking": 861 }, { "player_name": "Jong-hyun Ko", "ranking": 862 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.922107450251776, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5419139750114443, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0532, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 36, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 7.5, "ballRecovery": 3.0, "intensity_index": 4.817, "expectedAssists": 0.0318, "kilometersCovered": 4.39 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5002637505531311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ] }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04134318232536316, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ] }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07266411185264587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ] }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.035064946860075, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ] }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720456600189209, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ] } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0532, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.2128, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.073, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.92 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.073, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.92 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.3780)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.073, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.739, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "rating": 7.0779, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.073, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.739, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.55, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 277, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.71, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.584, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.0312, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Kike Salas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.2909, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrés Castrin and Juan Iglesias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.291 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marc Casadó", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.605, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.0454, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Casadó (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.159, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Guridi", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.401, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.042, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Guridi (LM) is evenly matched against Ximo Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0463, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Kochorashvili (RM) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0562, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Casadó", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CM) is evenly matched against Marc Casadó in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.521, "away_midfield_power": 0.489, "home_creative_power": 0.451, "away_creative_power": 0.361, "home_defensive_power": 0.493, "away_defensive_power": 0.439, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.516, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mario Soriano", "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jon Guridi", "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "Lucien Agoumé", "Miguel Sierra" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.004, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.986 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.363, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Jon Guridi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Juan Iglesias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Casadó": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Jon Guridi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Chidera Ejuke", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Kike Salas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adama Traoré": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Andrés Castrin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Guridi": { "opponents": [ "Ximo Navarro", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Kochorashvili": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Sierra": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Adama Traoré" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Chidera Ejuke": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9745, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0111, "home_midfield_factor": 1.004, "away_midfield_factor": 0.986, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4875, "away_avg_quality": 0.4769, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0107, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1337, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2149, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5823, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0459, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0612, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.064, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.363, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.889, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3632, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.889, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.363, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3571, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1826, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Deportivo vs Sevilla. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.363, Away 0.889). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.363, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.363, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.363, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.889 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:30:41Z" }