{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260917", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1311, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Betis", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.304, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1311 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1364 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1265 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1264 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0715 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1265, "0-1": 0.1264, "0-2": 0.0651, "0-3": 0.0221, "0-4": 0.0056, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1311, "1-1": 0.1364, "1-2": 0.0689, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0701, "2-1": 0.0715, "2-2": 0.0364, "2-3": 0.0124, "2-4": 0.0032, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0247, "3-1": 0.0252, "3-2": 0.0129, "3-3": 0.0044, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0065, "4-1": 0.0067, "4-2": 0.0034, "4-3": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3578, "draw": 0.304, "away_win": 0.3382 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3444, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6556, "btts_yes": 0.4188, "btts_no": 0.5812, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3471 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 7.15, "ATR": 7.02, "GK": 7.35 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 5.98, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 6.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cucho Hernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.55, "home_lambda": 1.058, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1364, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3578, "draw": 0.304, "away_win": 0.3382 }, "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3578, "fair_spread": 0.038, "fair_total": 2.078, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.058, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3444, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4188, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3471, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2024, "probability": 0.174, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.2671, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1495, "probability": 0.2276, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Christantus Uche (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.098, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.078, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 703, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.6, "possession_home_pct": 52.2, "possession_away_pct": 47.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3578, "script": "Real Betis is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.04 goals and fair total 2.08.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Betis lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Getafe chance creation leans on Martín Satriano against Natan in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Cucho Hernández; bench watchlist: Pablo García, Dani Ceballos.", "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Borja Mayoral, Ivan Azón, Nemanja Gudelj.", "Assist usage should flow through Antony; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Betis tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.04 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Betis.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Álvaro Valles": { "player_id": 964983, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.7048, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.67, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.0, "cleanSheets": 0.6667, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 66.7, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 2.26, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "shots_faced": 4.8, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Enes Ünal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416315.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 2.9806 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.583 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.1262 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5213 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2143, "combined_rank_score": 808.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 50.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3492, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vlatko Stojanovski", "ranking": 2138 }, { "player_name": "Islom Tukhtakhuzhaev", "ranking": 2139 }, { "player_name": "Juan Figueroa", "ranking": 2140 }, { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 2141 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 2142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 2145 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "ranking": 2146 }, { "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking": 2147 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 2148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9942, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3285, "rating": 7.3923, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.75, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.8049, "touches": 37.6558, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 14.955, "punches": 0.5405, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9017, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.6122 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.499781608581543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.3195 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 } ], "others": 0.2921, "total": 3.4998 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.32851865887641907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1775 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0836, "total": 0.3285 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.39232063293457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0845 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0733 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 7.3923 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.7048, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9942 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, 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"cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0699 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.029719628393650055, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.0297 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815164089202881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.8152 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.8377, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 0.8694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0838, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.3914, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.8377, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "xg_scale": 0.8694 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0733, "after": 0.0637 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0838, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.3914, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.8377, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.47, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 292, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.62, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nelson Deossa", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.055, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Francho Serrano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nelson Deossa (LWB) is evenly matched against Francho Serrano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "xg_contribution": 0.0819, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.461 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (CM) is slightly favored against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.505, "xg_contribution": 0.1602, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (CM) is slightly favored against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.0786, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramón Terrats", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (RWB) is evenly matched against Ramón Terrats in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Troy Parrott", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "xg_contribution": 0.139, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.718 }, { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.718 } ], "duel_analysis": "Troy Parrott (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrés García and Zaid Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.127, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrés García and Zaid Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.162, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.465, "xg_contribution": 0.0983, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giovani Lo Celso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.535 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is evenly matched against Giovani Lo Celso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.0378, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giovani Lo Celso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) is evenly matched against Giovani Lo Celso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Nelson Deossa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.52, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.351, "xg_contribution": 0.0412, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nelson Deossa", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 9800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.649 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Nelson Deossa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.3072, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Natan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.307 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.2459, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Natan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.246 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Christantus Uche", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13200000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.559, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.611, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.199, "xg_contribution": 0.1835, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 }, { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christantus Uche (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Valentín Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.666, "away_midfield_power": 0.504, "home_creative_power": 0.629, "away_creative_power": 0.407, "home_defensive_power": 0.559, "away_defensive_power": 0.407, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.569, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Nelson Deossa", "Pablo Fornals", "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Francho Serrano" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.974 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.058, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nelson Deossa": { "opponents": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Troy Parrott": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giovani Lo Celso": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal", "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Valentín Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Nelson Deossa" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Giovani Lo Celso", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Giovani Lo Celso", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Christantus Uche": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0569, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.159, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0168, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9683, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.974, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.607, "away_avg_quality": 0.484, "avg_quality_gap": 0.123, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.9459, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.954, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.854, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2503, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1377, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0801, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0477, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0644, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.058, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.794, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0576, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7939, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.058, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0431, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.051, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7166, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.949, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Betis vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.058, Away 0.794). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.058, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.058, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.058, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.794 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T13:30:42Z" }