{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260917", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1276, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2846, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1276 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1325 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1032 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1028 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.083 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1032, "0-1": 0.1276, "0-2": 0.0813, "0-3": 0.0342, "0-4": 0.0108, "0-5": 0.0027, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1028, "1-1": 0.1325, "1-2": 0.083, "1-3": 0.0349, "1-4": 0.011, "1-5": 0.0028, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.053, "2-1": 0.067, "2-2": 0.0423, "2-3": 0.0178, "2-4": 0.0056, "2-5": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.018, "3-1": 0.0228, "3-2": 0.0144, "3-3": 0.0061, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0046, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0037, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2977, "draw": 0.2846, "away_win": 0.4178 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3994, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6006, "btts_yes": 0.4598, "btts_no": 0.5402, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2828, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.7, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.13 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.02, "MCR": 7.27, "ATR": 7.4, "GK": 6.62 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Georges Mikautadze", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block." }, "confidence": 0.57, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.263, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1325, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2977, "draw": 0.2846, "away_win": 0.4178 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4178, "fair_spread": -0.243, "fair_total": 2.283, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.263, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3994, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4598, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2828, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2478, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.3939, "probability": 0.4749, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1054, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Santiago Mouriño (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.1764, "probability": 0.0436, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.283, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 789, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.6, "possession_home_pct": 47.5, "possession_away_pct": 52.5, "notes": "Villarreal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4178, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.24 goals and fair total 2.28.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Málaga chance creation leans on Chupete against Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Villarreal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Joaquín Muñoz, Julen Lobete, Eneko Jauregi.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi.", "Assist usage should flow through Tajon Buchanan; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9391 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7359 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6449 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3276, "combined_rank_score": 1220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1304, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Bueno", "ranking": 3273 }, { "player_name": "Hany Mukhtar", "ranking": 3274 }, { "player_name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ranking": 3275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 3280 }, { "player_name": "Beñat Prados", "ranking": 3281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2241, "rating": 7.2668, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 46, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.25, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.1927, "touches": 45.7177, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 28.586, "punches": 1.1211, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9345, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1927 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8891806602478027, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1291 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0059, "total": 2.8892 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.22408393025398254, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1042 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.031 } ], "others": 0.1102, "total": 0.2241 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.266763210296631, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0734 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0697 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0567 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0429 } ], "others": 0.0405, "total": 7.2668 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 420000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2199, "rating": 7.1304, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0951, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Carlos Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Adam Aznou": { "player_id": 1466124, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 178, "market_value": 6200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6312, "combined_rank_score": 4601.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 9024.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adam Aznou", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Xavier Arreaga", "ranking": 6307 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Nunes", "ranking": 6308 }, { "player_name": "Tom Watson", "ranking": 6309 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Piña", "ranking": 6310 }, { "player_name": "Angus Thurgate", "ranking": 6311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fernando Meza", "ranking": 6313 }, { "player_name": "David Miculescu", "ranking": 6314 }, { "player_name": "Dino Beširović", "ranking": 6315 }, { "player_name": "Adama Traoré", "ranking": 6316 }, { "player_name": "Enrique Triverio", "ranking": 6317 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.4769, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€6,200,000) applied for position D (quality factor 0.48)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.48)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.017, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.017, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.017, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.4, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.7, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Fernando Calero": { "player_id": 857205, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 183, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1185, "combined_rank_score": 513.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 522.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sebastián Díaz", "ranking": 1180 }, { "player_name": "Jesse Lingard", "ranking": 1181 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 }, { "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking": 1187 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€2,100,000) applied for position D (quality factor 0.44)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Jose Salinas": { "player_id": 1068891, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 178, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2864, "combined_rank_score": 1199.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 969.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.35, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.4563, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jose Salinas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jérémy Corinus", "ranking": 2859 }, { "player_name": "Livio Meier", "ranking": 2860 }, { "player_name": "Park Chae-Joon", "ranking": 2861 }, { "player_name": "Martin Andersen", "ranking": 2862 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Cabello", "ranking": 2863 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Camenzuli", "ranking": 2865 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Loureiro", "ranking": 2866 }, { "player_name": "Saba Sazonov", "ranking": 2867 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Nieto", "ranking": 2868 }, { "player_name": "Adalid Terrazas", "ranking": 2869 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.5798, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 21.2575, "touches_p90": 61.827, "possessionLostCtrl": 4.24, "totalClearance": 1.1662, "aerialWon": 0.9504 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8733784556388855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 0.8734 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1946179866790771, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0608 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0318 } ], "others": 0.0704, "total": 1.1946 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6008167862892151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1211 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0692 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.6008 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.447064161300659, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5001 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2437 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.233 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.212 } ], "others": -0.3164, "total": 2.4471 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.920720636844635, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": -0.193, "total": 0.9207 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.579781532287598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0326, "total": 6.5798 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.4563, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 4.2487, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "player_id": 857671, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, "combined_rank_score": 1806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.4269, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 }, { "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking": 3803 }, { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 }, { "player_name": "Darío Osorio", "ranking": 3809 }, { "player_name": "Josh Sargent", "ranking": 3810 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajradinović", "ranking": 3811 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9945, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "rating": 6.4623, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 0.0, "ballRecovery": 0.0, "intensity_index": 0.318, "expectedAssists": 0.0005, "kilometersCovered": 1.06 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0906236171722412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0942 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0578 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 1.0906 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.053997334092855453, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.054 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0770849958062172, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.0771 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04529314860701561, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0221, "total": 0.0453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.462287425994873, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.2556 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1698 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.1203 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.118 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0652 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 6.4623 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9945 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.045, "after": 0.0547 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "rating": 6.4269, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 0.9945, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "David Larrubia": { "player_id": 1002405, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 172, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3195, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1257, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1361, "combined_rank_score": 577.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 577.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8186, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Larrubia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marko Bakić", "ranking": 1356 }, { "player_name": "Nika Gagnidze", "ranking": 1357 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Geraldes", "ranking": 1358 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Niño", "ranking": 1359 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Arguibide", "ranking": 1360 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "John Edwin Montaño", "ranking": 1362 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Xavier", "ranking": 1363 }, { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9898, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1627, "rating": 6.8892, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 14.5, "dispossessed": 2.75, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 94, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.9603, "ballRecovery": 3.4665, "intensity_index": 5.8069, "expectedAssists": 0.1049, "kilometersCovered": 8.6546 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3709958791732788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0973 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0782 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0448 } ], "others": 0.0703, "total": 1.371 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10650232434272766, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.005 } ], "others": 0.0085, "total": 0.1065 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1311340630054474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.1311 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1626904159784317, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": 0.0223, "total": 0.1627 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.889196395874023, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.1019, "total": 6.8892 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9898, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.161, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9898 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.161, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.161, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.161, "after": 0.1957 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "rating": 6.8186, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 14.3515, "dispossessed": 2.7218, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 3, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Pablo Martínez": { "player_id": 927066, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1083, "combined_rank_score": 444.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 490.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 399.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8315, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Davinson Sánchez", "ranking": 1078 }, { "player_name": "Robert Sánchez", "ranking": 1079 }, { "player_name": "Romelu Lukaku", "ranking": 1080 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Delgado", "ranking": 1081 }, { "player_name": "Kim Han-Seo", "ranking": 1082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ethan Espinoza", "ranking": 1084 }, { "player_name": "Ji-Min Rim", "ranking": 1085 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Bandeira", "ranking": 1086 }, { "player_name": "Guk-yeong Han", "ranking": 1087 }, { "player_name": "Ramiro Vaca", "ranking": 1088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9816, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "rating": 6.9595, "minutes": 52, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 7.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.1361, "ballRecovery": 3.0811, "intensity_index": 3.4114, "expectedAssists": 0.0281, "kilometersCovered": 6.5065 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9636864066123962, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0722 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0684, "total": 0.9637 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07390213012695312, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.0739 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09202127158641815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.092 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03680034726858139, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.0368 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.959506988525391, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": 0.0649, "total": 6.9595 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9816, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9816 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0361, "after": 0.0439 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "rating": 6.8315, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 6.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Izan Merino": { "player_id": 1493488, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 186, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5154, "combined_rank_score": 3350.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 5916.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7454, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Izan Merino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Krasso", "ranking": 5149 }, { "player_name": "Abdallah Sima", "ranking": 5150 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Okoh", "ranking": 5151 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Sy", "ranking": 5152 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Hidalgo", "ranking": 5153 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Louis Mouton", "ranking": 5155 }, { "player_name": "Yassin Belkhdim", "ranking": 5156 }, { "player_name": "Erik Janža", "ranking": 5157 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Cornejo", "ranking": 5158 }, { "player_name": "Jacques Ekomié", "ranking": 5159 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0352, "rating": 6.8745, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.0469, "ballRecovery": 1.8073, "intensity_index": 3.9243, "expectedAssists": 0.023, "kilometersCovered": 7.717 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.814417839050293, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.077 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0758, "total": 0.8144 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.058760061860084534, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0588 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06737643480300903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 0.0674 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.035206686705350876, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.0352 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.874489784240723, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 6.8745 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0345, "after": 0.0419 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "rating": 6.7454, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Juan Cruz": { "player_id": 936234, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4217, "combined_rank_score": 2245.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3532.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6796, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Sanson", "ranking": 4215 }, { "player_name": "Hamari Traoré", "ranking": 4216 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maxime Lopez", "ranking": 4218 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Martínez", "ranking": 4219 }, { "player_name": "Haris Belkebla", "ranking": 4220 }, { "player_name": "Renato Sanches", "ranking": 4221 }, { "player_name": "Yusuf Sarı", "ranking": 4222 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0885, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "rating": 6.8074, "minutes": 42, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 4.2976, "ballRecovery": 1.6122, "intensity_index": 4.4152, "expectedAssists": 0.0115, "kilometersCovered": 4.8469 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8328152298927307, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": -0.1014, "total": 0.8328 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08853817731142044, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0885 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07941356301307678, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0794 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0806870386004448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.0807 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.807416915893555, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 6.8074 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0792, "after": 0.0963 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "rating": 6.6796, "minutes": 41, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.3968, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Romero", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2478, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9748, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2089, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6769, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2054, "combined_rank_score": 783.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8012, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chupete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Liam Jessop", "ranking": 2049 }, { "player_name": "Tohirjon Ashuboyev", "ranking": 2050 }, { "player_name": "Javier Méndez", "ranking": 2051 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Marín", "ranking": 2052 }, { "player_name": "Lee Rim", "ranking": 2053 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miguelito", "ranking": 2055 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Herrera", "ranking": 2056 }, { "player_name": "Joon-mo Kang", "ranking": 2057 }, { "player_name": "Maks Juraj Čelić", "ranking": 2058 }, { "player_name": "Eligijus Jankauskas", "ranking": 2059 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0092, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3134, "goal_rate": 0.4506, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7393, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.8544, "totalShots": 3.1551, "minutesPlayed": 90.0, "touches": 28.1647, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1292 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3134097456932068, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0471 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 0.3134 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4505526125431061, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0587 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": 0.1336, "total": 0.4506 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7205264568328857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0246 } ], "others": 0.0585, "total": 0.7205 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03643226623535156, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.0364 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6628023386001587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0614 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0379 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0335 } ], "others": -0.087, "total": 0.6628 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739274024963379, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0431 } ], "others": 0.0427, "total": 6.7393 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3163, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0092 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3163, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2039, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3163, "after": 0.2039 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2478, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2039, "after": 0.2478 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2478, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2478, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2478, "goal_rate": 0.4547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Adrián Niño": { "player_id": 1402927, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 186, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4211, "combined_rank_score": 2241.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4265.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adrián Niño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Léo Scienza", "ranking": 4206 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 4207 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Avom Ebong", "ranking": 4208 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Pérez", "ranking": 4209 }, { "player_name": "Salomón Rondón", "ranking": 4210 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Sanson", "ranking": 4215 }, { "player_name": "Hamari Traoré", "ranking": 4216 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€1,900,000) applied for position F (quality factor 0.44)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.226, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.226, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1457, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.4, "after": 1.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4, "after": 2.0 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.226, "after": 0.1457 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1457, "after": 0.1771 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 0 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.14, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.081, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.171, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Carlos Lopez": { "player_id": 1442178, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 184, "market_value": 95000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 9083, "combined_rank_score": 7736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 15175.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Lopez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lars-Jørgen Salvesen", "ranking": 9078 }, { "player_name": "Greg Docherty", "ranking": 9079 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wright", "ranking": 9080 }, { "player_name": "Stiven Muhlethaler", "ranking": 9081 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Thompson", "ranking": 9082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Osho", "ranking": 9084 }, { "player_name": "Sam Sutton", "ranking": 9085 }, { "player_name": "Scott Wharton", "ranking": 9086 }, { "player_name": "David Turnbull", "ranking": 9087 }, { "player_name": "Sam Smith", "ranking": 9088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€95,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 62.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 62.0 } } ] }, "Diego Murillo": { "player_id": 1410734, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 182, "market_value": 1600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 327, "combined_rank_score": 208.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 197.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 }, { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 323 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,600,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Juan Berrocal": { "player_id": 851226, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 187, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 330, "combined_rank_score": 298.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 375.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,500,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "expected_goals": 0.016, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "player_id": 1465424, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 176, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.4373, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1761, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 67, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4238, "combined_rank_score": 2259.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4261.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7296, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Lorenzo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raúl de Tomás", "ranking": 4233 }, { "player_name": "Romain Faivre", "ranking": 4234 }, { "player_name": "Matt Targett", "ranking": 4235 }, { "player_name": "Matías Arezo", "ranking": 4236 }, { "player_name": "Montassar Talbi", "ranking": 4237 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Himad Abdelli", "ranking": 4239 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Boggio", "ranking": 4240 }, { "player_name": "José Florentín", "ranking": 4241 }, { "player_name": "John Souttar", "ranking": 4242 }, { "player_name": "Osame Sahraoui", "ranking": 4243 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97222218756125, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.4987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "rating": 6.8584, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 53, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 6.0, "dispossessed": 1.67, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 6.18, "ballRecovery": 5.1574, "intensity_index": 4.7575, "expectedAssists": 0.0467, "kilometersCovered": 9.0005 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.688556432723999, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.6886 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0488249734044075, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.0488 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08074754476547241, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0807 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.035551849752664566, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0356 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.858377456665039, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0644 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0237, "total": 6.8584 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 5.8874, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.4373, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.4373, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 1.4373, "dispossessed": 1.6387, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4788, "combined_rank_score": 2863.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6825, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 }, { "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking": 4785 }, { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 }, { "player_name": "Auston Trusty", "ranking": 4791 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 4792 }, { "player_name": "Reo Hatate", "ranking": 4793 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97222218756125, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.4987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0716, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "rating": 6.8103, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.5291, "ballRecovery": 3.0, "intensity_index": 6.1194, "expectedAssists": 0.0462, "kilometersCovered": 5.9804 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8205182552337646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1839 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0907, "total": 0.8205 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07164700329303741, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0716 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08714739978313446, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0871 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0579385980963707, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.0579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.810332298278809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 6.8103 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.3592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Julen Lobete": { "player_id": 1006232, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 176, "market_value": 1200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2569, "combined_rank_score": 1059.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.1167, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julen Lobete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean Borg", "ranking": 2564 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Martins", "ranking": 2565 }, { "player_name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ranking": 2566 }, { "player_name": "Jan Mlakar", "ranking": 2567 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Ramazonov", "ranking": 2568 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eneko Jauregi", "ranking": 2570 }, { "player_name": "Ryan McAidoo", "ranking": 2571 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Gómez", "ranking": 2572 }, { "player_name": "Tiquinho Soares", "ranking": 2573 }, { "player_name": "Weibmar Asprilla", "ranking": 2574 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1267, "goal_rate": 0.1177, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2337, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 9.0, "touches": 2.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1267080008983612, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.1267 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11770923435688019, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.1177 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5001991391181946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 0.5002 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0184408500790596, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0184 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29356297850608826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.2936 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.23374605178833, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.2209 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1339 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.1242 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1012 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.2337 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1243, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0349, "after": 0.0424 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Eneko Jauregi": { "player_id": 926418, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 184, "market_value": 720000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2570, "combined_rank_score": 1059.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5749, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eneko Jauregi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marvin Martins", "ranking": 2565 }, { "player_name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ranking": 2566 }, { "player_name": "Jan Mlakar", "ranking": 2567 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Ramazonov", "ranking": 2568 }, { "player_name": "Julen Lobete", "ranking": 2569 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryan McAidoo", "ranking": 2571 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Gómez", "ranking": 2572 }, { "player_name": "Tiquinho Soares", "ranking": 2573 }, { "player_name": "Weibmar Asprilla", "ranking": 2574 }, { "player_name": "Kaique Kenji", "ranking": 2575 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1886, "goal_rate": 0.1889, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7007, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 10.0, "touches": 8.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.03 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1886264830827713, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": -0.038, "total": 0.1886 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18887953460216522, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.1889 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5253728032112122, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0583, "total": 0.5254 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03353334218263626, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": 0.0039, "total": 0.0335 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3975934386253357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1969 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0436, "total": 0.3976 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700685024261475, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1651 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.0427 } ], "others": 0.136, "total": 6.7007 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1851, "goal_rate": 0.1853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.9437, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 720000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.052, "after": 0.0632 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Eneko Jauregi": { "player_id": 926418, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 184, "market_value": 720000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2570, "combined_rank_score": 1059.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5749, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eneko Jauregi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marvin Martins", "ranking": 2565 }, { "player_name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ranking": 2566 }, { "player_name": "Jan Mlakar", "ranking": 2567 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Ramazonov", "ranking": 2568 }, { "player_name": "Julen Lobete", "ranking": 2569 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryan McAidoo", "ranking": 2571 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Gómez", "ranking": 2572 }, { "player_name": "Tiquinho Soares", "ranking": 2573 }, { "player_name": "Weibmar Asprilla", "ranking": 2574 }, { "player_name": "Kaique Kenji", "ranking": 2575 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1886, "goal_rate": 0.1889, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7007, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.0, "dispossessed": 2.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 10.0, "touches": 8.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.03 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1886264830827713, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": -0.038, "total": 0.1886 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18887953460216522, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.1889 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5253728032112122, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0583, "total": 0.5254 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03353334218263626, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": 0.0039, "total": 0.0335 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3975934386253357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1969 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0436, "total": 0.3976 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700685024261475, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1651 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.0427 } ], "others": 0.136, "total": 6.7007 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1851, "goal_rate": 0.1853, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 2.9437, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 720000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.052, "after": 0.0632 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5749, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.8273, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Julen Lobete": { "player_id": 1006232, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 176, "market_value": 1200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2569, "combined_rank_score": 1059.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.1167, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julen Lobete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean Borg", "ranking": 2564 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Martins", "ranking": 2565 }, { "player_name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ranking": 2566 }, { "player_name": "Jan Mlakar", "ranking": 2567 }, { "player_name": "Diyor Ramazonov", "ranking": 2568 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eneko Jauregi", "ranking": 2570 }, { "player_name": "Ryan McAidoo", "ranking": 2571 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Gómez", "ranking": 2572 }, { "player_name": "Tiquinho Soares", "ranking": 2573 }, { "player_name": "Weibmar Asprilla", "ranking": 2574 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1267, "goal_rate": 0.1177, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2337, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 9.0, "touches": 2.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1267080008983612, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.1267 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11770923435688019, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.1177 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5001991391181946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 0.5002 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0184408500790596, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0184 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29356297850608826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.2936 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.23374605178833, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.2209 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1339 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.1242 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1012 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.2337 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1243, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 9, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0349, "after": 0.0424 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.1167, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Málaga", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4788, "combined_rank_score": 2863.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6825, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 }, { "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking": 4785 }, { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 }, { "player_name": "Auston Trusty", "ranking": 4791 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 4792 }, { "player_name": "Reo Hatate", "ranking": 4793 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97222218756125, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.4987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0716, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "rating": 6.8103, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.5291, "ballRecovery": 3.0, "intensity_index": 6.1194, "expectedAssists": 0.0462, "kilometersCovered": 5.9804 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8205182552337646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1839 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0907, "total": 0.8205 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07164700329303741, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0716 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08714739978313446, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0871 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0579385980963707, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.0579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.810332298278809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 6.8103 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 57, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.3592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8392, xG scale 1.2154)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8392, "xg_scale": 1.2154 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.63, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 318, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Villarreal": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Luiz Júnior": { "player_id": 1066603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 12400000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.7728 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2317 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.1323 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.6088 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2073, "combined_rank_score": 790.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 339.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9929, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1241.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6207, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 }, { "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking": 2078 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0151, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.5224, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 26, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.6522, "touches": 25.95, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.8855, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9702, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.4595 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.440355062484741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.2345 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1158 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0583 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0312 } ], "others": -0.1096, "total": 2.4404 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1812 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1478 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0411 } ], "others": -0.0843, "total": -0.6232 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.522439479827881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1839 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0461 } ], "others": -0.0992, "total": 6.5224 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0151 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 } } ] }, "Renato Veiga": { "player_id": 1087359, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 190, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0278, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 74, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1297, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 92, "accurate_pass": 84, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 52, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2498, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 76, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2081, "combined_rank_score": 791.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1247.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2577, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 }, { "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking": 2078 }, { "player_name": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "ranking": 2079 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 }, { "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking": 2085 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8275, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 72, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 41, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 8.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.08, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 98, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 72.0648, "touches_p90": 92.2264, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.3852, "totalClearance": 5.6038, "aerialWon": 1.4595 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.990608811378479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.9906 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1629997491836548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0595 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.026 } ], "others": 0.0358, "total": 1.163 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6941888332366943, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0602 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0333 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 0.6942 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.328888893127441, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2652 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.1843 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1546 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1511 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.1453 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 4.3289 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.346065878868103, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1192 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0281 } ], "others": 0.0387, "total": 1.3461 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.827540397644043, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 6.8275 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0630, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.063 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.33 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0722, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7379, "after": 0.6846 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5945, "after": 1.5516 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.053, "after": 1.0732 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5315, "after": 0.5415 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2577, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 9.0355, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 32, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0278, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0278 } } ] }, "Carlos Romero": { "player_id": 1396048, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 174, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0218, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1032, "combined_rank_score": 460.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 764.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0622, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 }, { "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking": 1034 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.467, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0506, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 10.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.06, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 45.4908, "touches_p90": 74.7133, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.7017, "totalClearance": 1.9504, "aerialWon": 1.0583 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8354364633560181, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.8354 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.5087143182754517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1243 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0951 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0441 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 1.5087 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3775721788406372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1339 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0906 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0582 } ], "others": 0.182, "total": 1.3776 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8903086185455322, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.5346 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.2764 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1651 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.163 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.1435 } ], "others": -0.5605, "total": 1.8903 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9787386059761047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1286 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 0.9787 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.722318172454834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": 0.0439, "total": 6.7223 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0506, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0506 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.33 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0813, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1896 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8777, "after": 0.8335 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4472, "after": 1.465 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.1011, "after": 2.0929 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0218, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0218 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.0622, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 11.2094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671, "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "pressing_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0218, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215 } } ] }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "player_id": 1468046, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0312, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0436, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2087, "combined_rank_score": 793.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 339.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9929, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1248.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8582, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Santiago Mouriño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 }, { "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking": 2085 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking": 2088 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Partey", "ranking": 2089 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Izzatov", "ranking": 2090 }, { "player_name": "Gyu-baeg Lee", "ranking": 2091 }, { "player_name": "Brian Oyola", "ranking": 2092 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.463, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.463, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0375, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 238.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.76, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6101, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 11.33, "dispossessed": 1.67, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.17, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 39.6356, "touches_p90": 82.6216, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.1992, "totalClearance": 1.6113, "aerialWon": 1.0583 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7606542706489563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0891, "total": 0.7607 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.49259614944458, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.3081 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.2018 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.2108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.2261 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.1538, "total": 2.4926 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.7300313711166382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1591 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.1354 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.118 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.088 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0718 } ], "others": 0.2902, "total": 1.73 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1297860145568848, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.5668 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.2867 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1884 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1518 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1316 } ], "others": -0.3249, "total": 2.1298 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0669220685958862, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0898 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0298 } ], "others": -0.0655, "total": 1.0669 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.610098838806152, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0663 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 6.6101 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0375, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0375 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0704)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.38 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0704, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.795, "after": 1.8853 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0812 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7892, "after": 0.7607 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0268 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.0751, "after": 2.0915 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0312, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0312 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.8582, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 11.7553, "dispossessed": 1.7327, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1764, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 88.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0312, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0436, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0436 } } ] }, "Logan Costa": { "player_id": 911853, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1283, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0603, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3313, "combined_rank_score": 1271.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1965.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9248, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Logan Costa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luca Ranieri", "ranking": 3308 }, { "player_name": "Răzvan Marin", "ranking": 3309 }, { "player_name": "Diego Coppola", "ranking": 3310 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Rosario", "ranking": 3311 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Gómez", "ranking": 3312 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0224, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.7728, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.06, "expected_assists": 0.03, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 112, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 48.0, "touches_p90": 60.7229, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.0, "totalClearance": 1.0, "aerialWon": 1.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1329905986785889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.1296 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0193, "total": 1.133 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3322136402130127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": 0.0811, "total": 1.3322 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8580319881439209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0683 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": 0.1372, "total": 0.858 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.849745750427246, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2424 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.1657 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1654 } ], "others": 0.2054, "total": 3.8497 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.125475287437439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0864 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0439 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 1.1255 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772780895233154, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0608 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": 0.0476, "total": 6.7728 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0224, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0224 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 1, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1283, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0613, "after": 0.1283 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1283, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1283, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0603, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0603 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9248, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1122, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1283, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "opponent_faced": "Chupete", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0603, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142 } } ] }, "Pau Navarro": { "player_id": 1525863, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3794, "combined_rank_score": 1792.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 661.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7304, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 2923.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pau Navarro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking": 3789 }, { "player_name": "Adalberto Carrasquilla", "ranking": 3790 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Dibling", "ranking": 3791 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Widell Zetterström", "ranking": 3792 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Crépeau", "ranking": 3793 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Pires", "ranking": 3795 }, { "player_name": "Salih Özcan", "ranking": 3796 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Mugoša", "ranking": 3797 }, { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene", "ranking": 3798 }, { "player_name": "Kenny McLean", "ranking": 3799 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.5748, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€14,600,000) applied for position D (quality factor 0.57); FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.57)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.019, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.019, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 0, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.019, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.019, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.019, "after": 0.0398 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 37, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.056, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.014, "key_pass": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 5, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451 } } ] }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "player_id": 1012444, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 172, "market_value": 54000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0843, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.193, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2202, "expected_assists": 0.158, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2319, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0657, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1651, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1102, "combined_rank_score": 671.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 494.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8622, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 849.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.631, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alberto Moleiro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Merih Demiral", "ranking": 1097 }, { "player_name": "César Azpilicueta", "ranking": 1098 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Mirzayev", "ranking": 1099 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadkodir Khamraliev", "ranking": 1100 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Groß", "ranking": 1101 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Angelo Stiller", "ranking": 1103 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Júnior", "ranking": 1104 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Tzolakis", "ranking": 1105 }, { "player_name": "Pau Torres", "ranking": 1106 }, { "player_name": "Ju-yeong Jo", "ranking": 1107 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.516, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.516, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1011, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 142.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.625, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.625)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1097, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "rating": 6.9303, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 1.6763, "ballRecovery": 1.1342, "intensity_index": 3.21, "expectedAssists": 0.1582, "kilometersCovered": 3.9616 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.281342625617981, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0743 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0585 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 1.2813 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10973459482192993, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 0.1097 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08524326235055923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0852 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06979149580001831, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.0698 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930306911468506, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": 0.0458, "total": 6.9303 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1011, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.1011 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0385)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.63 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0385, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1204 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0939, "after": 0.1144 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.8 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.8 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0768, "after": 0.1607 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0843, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0843 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1208, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "rating": 7.631, "minutes": 56, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 8.8089, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 52.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0843, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.193, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.193 } } ] }, "Pape Gueye": { "player_id": 879694, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 187, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1913, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0538, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.1321, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 826, "combined_rank_score": 394.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 758.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5401, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 }, { "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking": 824 }, { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 }, { "player_name": "Botirali Ergashev", "ranking": 830 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Jensen", "ranking": 831 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0826, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0621, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 58, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 43, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 13.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.5439, "ballRecovery": 3.1187, "intensity_index": 3.5161, "expectedAssists": 0.1063, "kilometersCovered": 7.1357 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.33766508102417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0995 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0472 } ], "others": 0.0514, "total": 1.3377 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10254599153995514, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.1025 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08260398358106613, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0034 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0826 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.062075186520814896, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.0621 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.964600086212158, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": 0.0247, "total": 6.9646 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0826, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 39000000, "quality_factor": 0.7754, "boost_factor": 1.0826 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.33 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0722, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0963 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0963 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.4359, "after": 2.4044 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0238 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0894, "after": 0.0829 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0672, "after": 0.1406 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "rating": 7.5401, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 46, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 87, "possession_lost": 14.6156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 33.3, "shotConversion": 0.33, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0739, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1913, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1913 } } ] }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "player_id": 973290, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 183, "market_value": 13000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.211, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1044, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1966, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.1545, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4605, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3318, "combined_rank_score": 1275.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 584.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7941, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1967.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0327, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Logan Costa", "ranking": 3313 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.514, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.514, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0171, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 127.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.83, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0991, "rating": 6.9145, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 5.7231, "ballRecovery": 1.994, "intensity_index": 4.3033, "expectedAssists": 0.0543, "kilometersCovered": 3.5479 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1439918279647827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0309 } ], "others": 0.0373, "total": 1.144 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1398201584815979, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0048 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 0.1398 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08816113322973251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.0882 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09907851368188858, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 0.0991 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9144721031188965, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0154, "total": 6.9145 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.557)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13000000, "quality_factor": 0.557, "boost_factor": 1.0171 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0337)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0337, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1444 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.0513, "after": 3.1651 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0478 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0171, "after": 1.055 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1008, "after": 0.211 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1044, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1044 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1422, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.211, "rating": 7.0327, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.1368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 47.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Izan Merino", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1044, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1966, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1966 } } ] }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "player_id": 1089108, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 175, "market_value": 11100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0543, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1629, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3623, "combined_rank_score": 1590.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 768.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.645, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 2412.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8709, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilias Akhomach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joe Scally", "ranking": 3618 }, { "player_name": "Petros Mantalos", "ranking": 3619 }, { "player_name": "Rodinei", "ranking": 3620 }, { "player_name": "David Jurásek", "ranking": 3621 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Moro", "ranking": 3622 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrija Živković", "ranking": 3624 }, { "player_name": "Maffeo", "ranking": 3625 }, { "player_name": "Harold Moukoudi", "ranking": 3626 }, { "player_name": "Davide Calabria", "ranking": 3627 }, { "player_name": "Luka Jović", "ranking": 3628 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.505, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0106, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 47.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 5 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.75, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.3729, "ballRecovery": 0.5806, "intensity_index": 0.8952, "expectedAssists": 0.0095, "kilometersCovered": 1.5191 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7832600474357605, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0587 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0288 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 0.7833 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0917372852563858, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.0917 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07881529629230499, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0788 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06270678341388702, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0627 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.798887729644775, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 6.7989 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.535)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11100000, "quality_factor": 0.5353, "boost_factor": 1.0106 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.91 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1924 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0634, "after": 0.1327 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0543, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0543 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "rating": 6.8709, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.8003, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 17.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0543, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1629, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1629 } } ] }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "player_id": 1009372, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 176, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3939, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4749, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1751, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.1187, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.7893, "expected_assists": 0.2452, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2206, "expected_assists": 0.4077, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1648, "combined_rank_score": 667.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 371.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9688, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 964.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3977, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 }, { "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking": 1644 }, { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 }, { "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking": 1653 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.528, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.528, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0696, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 249.0, "goals_per90": 0.3571428571428571, "assists_per90": 0.3571428571428571, "shots_per90": 3.61, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 6 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.19, gls/90: 0.3571428571428571, ast/90: 0.3571428571428571)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2729, "goal_rate": 0.3247, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0958, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9163, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 10.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.8389, "totalShots": 2.7989, "minutesPlayed": 65.9157, "touches": 34.983, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2886 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.27292904257774353, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0375, "total": 0.2729 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3246653974056244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.3247 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6507524847984314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 0.6508 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09583894908428192, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 0.0958 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7706884741783142, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0131, "total": 0.7707 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.916319847106934, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0917 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0334 } ], "others": 0.1089, "total": 6.9163 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0696, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.3473, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0696 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0674)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 4, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0674, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.696, "after": 0.7468 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0482 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0482 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0482 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2674, "after": 0.2735 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 4, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.61, "after": 2.0 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2919, "after": 0.1882 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3939, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1882, "after": 0.3939 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3939, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3939, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4749, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4749 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3939, "goal_rate": 0.348, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.3977, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 11.2309, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "total_shots": 2, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 40.0, "shotConversion": 0.1, "minutesPct": 92.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "opponent_faced": "Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero, Jose Salinas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4749, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1039 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Péter Gulácsi": { "player_id": 37096, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 190, "market_value": 970000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 616, "combined_rank_score": 318.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 409.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mender García", "ranking": 611 }, { "player_name": "José Fajardo", "ranking": 612 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 }, { "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking": 619 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€970,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 970000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 0, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Alexander Freeman": { "player_id": 1184541, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 188, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.5153, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.87, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 80, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 416, "combined_rank_score": 378.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6841, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alexander Freeman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Itsuki Urata", "ranking": 411 }, { "player_name": "Chi-Won Choi", "ranking": 412 }, { "player_name": "Youssef Enriquez", "ranking": 413 }, { "player_name": "Beom Song", "ranking": 414 }, { "player_name": "Irakli Azarovi", "ranking": 415 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Johaneko Louis Jean", "ranking": 417 }, { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Paredes", "ranking": 419 }, { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.871536137511768, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3123425517050804, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0039, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 13.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.31)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 40, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 3.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.03, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 41.8533, "touches_p90": 148.3028, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.38, "totalClearance": 0.7775, "aerialWon": 0.3887 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.695639967918396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.258 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 0.6956 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.196031928062439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0729 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0896, "total": 1.196 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7123515009880066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1226 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0367 } ], "others": 0.0595, "total": 0.7124 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0131217241287231, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.736 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1923 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1425 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.06 } ], "others": -0.1892, "total": 1.0131 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7935556173324585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3291 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 0.7936 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658129692077637, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0847 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.077 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0302 } ], "others": 0.0373, "total": 6.6581 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 40, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 3.343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0039 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.5153, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.87 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.87, "appearance_probability": 0.312 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.5153, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.87 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.6841, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.5153, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.87, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Juan Foyth": { "player_id": 873189, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.0278, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3212, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 83, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2948, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1291, "combined_rank_score": 559.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 962.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9342, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Foyth", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Hermoso", "ranking": 1286 }, { "player_name": "Giovani Lo Celso", "ranking": 1287 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torreira", "ranking": 1288 }, { "player_name": "Diego Ulloa", "ranking": 1289 }, { "player_name": "David Neres", "ranking": 1290 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Berg", "ranking": 1292 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pennington", "ranking": 1293 }, { "player_name": "Park Jae-Hwan", "ranking": 1294 }, { "player_name": "Franco Frías", "ranking": 1295 }, { "player_name": "César Fuentes", "ranking": 1296 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.467, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.843259726989771, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.222, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 13.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.922, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 95, "possession_lost": 6.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.12, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 131, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:44.724055+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 374, "rows": 1289 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 71.8484, "touches_p90": 95.3197, "possessionLostCtrl": 6.6113, "totalClearance": 5.1234, "aerialWon": 3.1079 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9868907928466797, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0944 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "importance": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9108, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1711 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0816 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": 0.075, "total": 0.9869 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3349201679229736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "duelLost", "importance": 0.0461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0401 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3553, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1456 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0492 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 1.3349 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8444713354110718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0565 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0329 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8675, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.166 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0404 } ], "others": 0.0987, "total": 0.8445 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.3317742347717285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4032, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.4641 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.202 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.1671 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0708 } ], "others": 0.1924, "total": 2.3318 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1127806901931763, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3555 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0368 } ], "others": 0.0619, "total": 1.1128 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.921993732452393, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.1035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": 0.1191, "total": 6.922 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 95, "possession_lost": 6.6818, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 131, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0018 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 95, "possession_lost": 6.6818, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1202, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 131, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.33 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0813, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9886, "after": 1.0979 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.846, "after": 0.9127 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0271 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0268 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.0278, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.84, "appearance_probability": 0.222 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.0278, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9342, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.0278, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "player_id": 1093229, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 173, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1151, "expected_assists": 0.1364, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4406, "combined_rank_score": 2430.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7223, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 }, { "player_name": "Kings Kangwa", "ranking": 4404 }, { "player_name": "Soualiho Meïté", "ranking": 4405 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luca Koleosho", "ranking": 4407 }, { "player_name": "Anastasios Bakasetas", "ranking": 4408 }, { "player_name": "Rick van Drongelen", "ranking": 4409 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Echeverría", "ranking": 4410 }, { "player_name": "Romaine Mundle", "ranking": 4411 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.271536137511767, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5123425517050804, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0039, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "rating": 6.6961, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 10, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 51, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.0, "ballRecovery": 2.0, "intensity_index": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.1364, "kilometersCovered": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9802777767181396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.169 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.1049, "total": 0.9803 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08495140820741653, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 0.085 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.11721768230199814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": 0.009, "total": 0.1172 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04212000221014023, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0421 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696115016937256, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.3556 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.1089, "total": 6.6961 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 10, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 51, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 8.0312, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0039 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.27, "appearance_probability": 0.512 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0105, "after": 0.022 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Santi Comesaña": { "player_id": 843678, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.7929, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 73.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.459, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1902, "combined_rank_score": 735.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 960.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8093, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jeong-hwan Kim", "ranking": 1897 }, { "player_name": "Ahmet Arslan", "ranking": 1898 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Gabbia", "ranking": 1899 }, { "player_name": "Otabek Jurakuziev", "ranking": 1900 }, { "player_name": "Choi Han-sol", "ranking": 1901 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 }, { "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking": 1906 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking": 1907 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.522, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.522, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.233793669464315, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.312, "market_value_adjustment": 1.001, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.31); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "rating": 6.8022, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 7.25, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 3.9745, "ballRecovery": 2.074, "intensity_index": 4.105, "expectedAssists": 0.1161, "kilometersCovered": 5.6678 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8509504795074463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1838 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0599, "total": 0.851 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05153218284249306, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.0515 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07992318272590637, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0799 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.023898687213659286, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 0.0239 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.802213668823242, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0643 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 6.8022 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 7.2576, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.001 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0530)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 58, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 7.2576, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 73.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.053, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0963 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.2524, "after": 2.2776 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.7929, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 73.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "appearance_probability": 0.312 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.7929, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 73.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "rating": 6.8093, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.7929, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 73.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "player_id": 1172477, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 188, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4879, "combined_rank_score": 2974.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 914.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6644, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yazan Al Arab", "ranking": 4874 }, { "player_name": "Lee Chang Geun", "ranking": 4875 }, { "player_name": "Song Bum Keun", "ranking": 4876 }, { "player_name": "Renato Steffen", "ranking": 4877 }, { "player_name": "Edimilson Fernandes", "ranking": 4878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Zesiger", "ranking": 4880 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 4881 }, { "player_name": "Alvyn Sanches", "ranking": 4882 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zanotti", "ranking": 4883 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 4884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.723, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 8.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 15.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 8.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0924, "goal_rate": 0.1313, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 11.9096, "touches": 4.6783, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0157 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09236608445644379, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 0.0924 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.13130521774291992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0575, "total": 0.1313 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49849429726600647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.089, "total": 0.4985 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017674116417765617, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0177 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3206009864807129, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2083 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0567, "total": 0.3206 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791300773620605, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1432 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": 0.0857, "total": 6.6791 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6663, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9978 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.1303, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6663, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.88, "appearance_probability": 0.723 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Nicolas Pépé": { "player_id": 593526, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 183, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.6435, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1182, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2768, "expected_assists": 0.2635, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2524, "expected_assists": 0.4359, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1005, "expected_assists": 0.2611, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 560, "combined_rank_score": 308.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 572.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0183, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Pépé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 }, { "player_name": "Jarrod Bowen", "ranking": 557 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Alonso Martin", "ranking": 558 }, { "player_name": "Marco Román", "ranking": 559 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Javi Navarro", "ranking": 561 }, { "player_name": "Jordi Pesquer", "ranking": 562 }, { "player_name": "Diego Lacosta", "ranking": 563 }, { "player_name": "Luca Williams-Barnett", "ranking": 564 }, { "player_name": "Tynan Thompson", "ranking": 565 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.527, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.527, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.467767132293673, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.338, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9945, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.3703703703703703, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.254, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0569, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 16.5, "dispossessed": 1.75, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.42, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 96, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.4595, "totalShots": 3.2082, "minutesPlayed": 85.0006, "touches": 73.6327, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.3248 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.25396957993507385, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.254 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4234887659549713, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.4235 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8273980021476746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": 0.051, "total": 0.8274 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06108085438609123, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0086, "total": 0.0611 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7500160932540894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1846 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0766 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": 0.141, "total": 0.75 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.056930065155029, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0911 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0786 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.071 } ], "others": 0.2791, "total": 7.0569 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2526, "goal_rate": 0.4212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 16.4097, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4177, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 96, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9945 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2526, "goal_rate": 0.4179, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 16.4097, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4177, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 96, "progressive_carries": 5, "total_shots": 3, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.065, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8229, "after": 0.889 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2432, "after": 1.2587 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.4808, "after": 3.4712 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.6435, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1182, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "appearance_probability": 0.338 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.6435, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1182, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.0183, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.6435, "dispossessed": 1.7404, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1182, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "player_id": 1172477, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 188, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4879, "combined_rank_score": 2974.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 914.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6644, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yazan Al Arab", "ranking": 4874 }, { "player_name": "Lee Chang Geun", "ranking": 4875 }, { "player_name": "Song Bum Keun", "ranking": 4876 }, { "player_name": "Renato Steffen", "ranking": 4877 }, { "player_name": "Edimilson Fernandes", "ranking": 4878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Zesiger", "ranking": 4880 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 4881 }, { "player_name": "Alvyn Sanches", "ranking": 4882 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zanotti", "ranking": 4883 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 4884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.723, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 8.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 15.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 8.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0924, "goal_rate": 0.1313, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 11.9096, "touches": 4.6783, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0157 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09236608445644379, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 0.0924 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.13130521774291992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0575, "total": 0.1313 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49849429726600647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.089, "total": 0.4985 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.017674116417765617, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0177 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3206009864807129, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2083 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0567, "total": 0.3206 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791300773620605, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1432 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": 0.0857, "total": 6.6791 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6663, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9978 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.1303, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.6663, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -5.63 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.88, "appearance_probability": 0.723 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6644, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.294, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "player_id": 1093229, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 173, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1151, "expected_assists": 0.1364, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4406, "combined_rank_score": 2430.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7223, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 }, { "player_name": "Kings Kangwa", "ranking": 4404 }, { "player_name": "Soualiho Meïté", "ranking": 4405 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luca Koleosho", "ranking": 4407 }, { "player_name": "Anastasios Bakasetas", "ranking": 4408 }, { "player_name": "Rick van Drongelen", "ranking": 4409 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Echeverría", "ranking": 4410 }, { "player_name": "Romaine Mundle", "ranking": 4411 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.271536137511767, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5123425517050804, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0039, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "rating": 6.6961, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 10, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 51, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 2.0, "ballRecovery": 2.0, "intensity_index": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.1364, "kilometersCovered": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9802777767181396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.169 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.1049, "total": 0.9803 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08495140820741653, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 0.085 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.11721768230199814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": 0.009, "total": 0.1172 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04212000221014023, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0421 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696115016937256, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.3556 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.1089, "total": 6.6961 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 10, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 51, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 8.0312, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "tackles": 5, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0039 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.27, "appearance_probability": 0.512 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 0.6035, xG scale 2.0928)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 0.6035, "xg_scale": 2.0928 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0105, "after": 0.022 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "rating": 6.7223, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 1.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.26, "expected_assists": 1.0, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 471, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 7.11, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.0312, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pau Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "xg_contribution": 0.0383, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jens-Lys Cajuste (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.0286, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Juan Cruz", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0684, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Romero", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Juan Cruz (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.668, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2039, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Santiago Mouriño in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.668, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Santiago Mouriño in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero", "Jose Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1882, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jose Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adam Aznou and Fernando Calero and Jose Salinas in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Romero", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Juan Cruz" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.1096, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Cruz", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Romero (LWB) is slightly favored against Juan Cruz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pau Navarro", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Izan Merino" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.0207, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Izan Merino", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pau Navarro (RWB) is evenly matched against Izan Merino in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.021 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "xg_contribution": 0.0879, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "role": "CM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.48 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is slightly favored against Jens-Lys Cajuste in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.496, "away_midfield_power": 0.701, "home_creative_power": 0.375, "away_creative_power": 0.679, "home_defensive_power": 0.407, "away_defensive_power": 0.557, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.414, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez", "Izan Merino", "Juan Cruz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.968, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.036 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.263, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "LWB vs RWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Pau Navarro", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Romero", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adam Aznou": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jose Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "Pablo Martínez", "David Larrubia", "Juan Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero", "Jose Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Logan Costa": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1427, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9206, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0098, "home_midfield_factor": 0.968, "away_midfield_factor": 1.036, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4511, "away_avg_quality": 0.659, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2079, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.6257, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.5012, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.3511, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4091, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.225, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1309, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0666, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0492, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4091, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1073, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9691, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.65, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.141, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.65, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.263, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6281, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1406, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.263 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6712, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2796, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.458, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.75, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Villarreal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.628, Away 1.141). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.263 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 8, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.263, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.628, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.141 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T13:31:12Z" }