{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260918", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0819, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2221, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0819 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0909 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0785 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0713 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.051 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0292, "0-1": 0.051, "0-2": 0.047, "0-3": 0.0284, "0-4": 0.0129, "0-5": 0.0047, "0-6": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.0489, "1-1": 0.0909, "1-2": 0.0819, "1-3": 0.0495, "1-4": 0.0225, "1-5": 0.0082, "1-6": 0.0025, "1-7": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0432, "2-1": 0.0785, "2-2": 0.0713, "2-3": 0.0432, "2-4": 0.0196, "2-5": 0.0071, "2-6": 0.0022, "2-7": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0251, "3-1": 0.0456, "3-2": 0.0414, "3-3": 0.0251, "3-4": 0.0114, "3-5": 0.0041, "3-6": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0109, "4-1": 0.0199, "4-2": 0.018, "4-3": 0.0109, "4-4": 0.005, "4-5": 0.0018, "4-6": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0038, "5-1": 0.0069, "5-2": 0.0063, "5-3": 0.0038, "5-4": 0.0017, "5-5": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.002, "6-2": 0.0018, "6-3": 0.0011, "6-4": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3739, "draw": 0.2221, "away_win": 0.404 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6897, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3103, "btts_yes": 0.6914, "btts_no": 0.3086, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1627, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1752 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.2, "MCR": 7.4, "ATR": 7.44, "GK": 7.54 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.32, "MCR": 7.6, "ATR": 7.85, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Igor Thiago, Cole Palmer, João Pedro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.56, "home_lambda": 1.742, "away_lambda": 1.816, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0909, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3739, "draw": 0.2221, "away_win": 0.404 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.404, "fair_spread": -0.074, "fair_total": 3.558, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.742, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.816, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6897, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6914, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1627, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1752, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.3781, "probability": 0.3962, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.4098, "probability": 0.6408, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.1296, "probability": 0.1865, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.125, "probability": 0.191, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.558, "expected_total_shots": 32, "expected_total_passes": 650, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.1, "possession_away_pct": 50.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.404, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.07 goals and fair total 3.56.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brentford must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago; bench watchlist: Jaidon Anthony, Gustavo Nunes, Fabio Carvalho.", "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through Cole Palmer, João Pedro; bench watchlist: Enzo Fernández, Geovany Quenda, Emmanuel Emegha.", "Assist usage should flow through Mikkel Damsgaard, Cole Palmer; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.78 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brentford is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Brentford wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brentford": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "player_id": 827362, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1999, "rating": 7.5413, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 44, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.5319, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 3.0, "cleanSheets": 0.5, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 83.3, "cleanSheetPct": 50.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.5, "expected_saves": 1.44, "high_pressure_saves": 0.55, "shots_faced": 3.1, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363640.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363260.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1067 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1697 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6078 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 827, "combined_rank_score": 395.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 682.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5413, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 }, { "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking": 824 }, { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 }, { "player_name": "Botirali Ergashev", "ranking": 830 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Jensen", "ranking": 831 }, { "player_name": "Khozhimat Erkinov", "ranking": 832 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0532, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brentford", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brentford, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1898, "rating": 7.1605, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 41, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.7191, "touches": 41.173, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 16.9397, "punches": 0.7191, "distribution_accuracy": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7191 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.557231903076172, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1533 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1088 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0326 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 2.5572 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.1897750198841095, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1715 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.0817, "total": 0.1898 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.160478115081787, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.125 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0982 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0704 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0576 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0398 } ], "others": 0.0891, "total": 7.1605 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0532, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1999, "rating": 7.5413, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 44, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.5319, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 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1.0033599138259888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0828 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0392 } ], "others": -0.0699, "total": 1.0034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741477966308594, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", 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"trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 10.1913, "ballRecovery": 3.5705, "intensity_index": 6.4371, "expectedAssists": 0.1222, "kilometersCovered": 5.8789 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8589285612106323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1352 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": -0.0822, "total": 0.8589 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07197548449039459, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 0.072 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09990739077329636, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 0.0999 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06909188628196716, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.0691 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674863815307617, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0756 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.6749 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0375, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "rating": 6.9254, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, 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"rating": 6.9254, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 9.3378, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 3, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 1.1111, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 46.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.07 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0244, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4175, "after": 2.4669 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3799, "after": 1.4275 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0271 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "rating": 6.9254, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.4299, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "offsides": 1, "yellowCards": 1.1111, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 46.7, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.07, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.42, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "rating": 6.9254, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, 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"stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.1190, xG scale 1.5567)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "rating": 6.9254, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.4299, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, 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"fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emmanuel Emegha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Martín Gómez", "ranking": 1990 }, { "player_name": "Mihailo Ristić", "ranking": 1991 }, { "player_name": "Néiser Villarreal", "ranking": 1992 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Rodrigues", "ranking": 1993 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigues", "ranking": 1994 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Ángel Morán", "ranking": 1996 }, { "player_name": "Bakhodir Khalilov", "ranking": 1997 }, { "player_name": "Abror Khusinov", "ranking": 1998 }, { "player_name": "Muhriddin Fazliddinov", "ranking": 1999 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Borja", "ranking": 2000 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.27590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6034502969476605, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6858, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€26,000,000) scaled to 26.3 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.69)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.321, "goal_rate": 0.2, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.116, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 9.8, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.246, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 6 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0937, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.8612, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0718, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "appearance_probability": 0.603 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0937, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.8612, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0718, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.82 (squad xG sum 0.8589, xG scale 2.1143)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.8612, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0718, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.856, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.816, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8589, "xg_scale": 2.1143, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.1981 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.8612, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0718, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.856, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1995, "fifa_rank": 1238.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.82, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 291, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 5, "avg_rating": 7.47, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Jorrel Hato" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.1596, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "RB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (LW) is evenly matched against Jorrel Hato in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Reece James" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "xg_contribution": 0.059, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Reece James", "role": "LB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikkel Damsgaard (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Reece James in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €63M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dango Ouattara", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Estêvão" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.889, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.0615, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Estêvão", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dango Ouattara (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Moisés Caicedo and Estêvão in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €93M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.838, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "xg_contribution": 0.2429, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.243 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mamadou Sangare", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.1049, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mamadou Sangare (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €104M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.0963, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "role": "RB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (LW) is evenly matched against El Hadji Malick Diouf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "xg_contribution": 0.1913, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "LB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.48 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (RW) is slightly favored against Sepp van den Berg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €33M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 105000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sangare", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.1337, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 }, { "player": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sangare and Yehor Yarmoliuk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€105M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode", "Nathan Collins" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.743, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.1938, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Nathan Collins", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Michael Kayode and Nathan Collins in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sangare" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0694, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CDM) is evenly matched against Mamadou Sangare in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.794, "away_midfield_power": 0.932, "home_creative_power": 0.679, "away_creative_power": 0.803, "home_defensive_power": 0.698, "away_defensive_power": 0.748, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.46, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mamadou Sangare", "Dango Ouattara", "Kevin Schade", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Moisés Caicedo", "Cole Palmer", "Estêvão", "Pedro Neto" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Rogers", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.742, "away_lambda": 1.816, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Reece James", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dango Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Estêvão", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "El Hadji Malick Diouf": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sepp van den Berg": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Estêvão" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nathan Collins": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Moisés Caicedo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jorrel Hato": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Reece James": { "opponents": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Dango Ouattara", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Estêvão": { "opponents": [ "Dango Ouattara", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sangare", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Dango Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Nathan Collins" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mike Penders": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9159, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1415, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8713, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.899, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7521, "away_avg_quality": 0.8609, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1087, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.669, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.717, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.75, "elite_count_gap": -9, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3049, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1677, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0976, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.122, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.107, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3049, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0812, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9795, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.778, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.68, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.742, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.816, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7782, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6796, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.742, "final_away_lambda": 1.816 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.5899, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.458, "form_multiplier": 0.981, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.75, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1462, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 1.019, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brentford vs Chelsea. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.778, Away 1.680). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.742, Away 1.816 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.742, "away_lambda": 1.816, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.778, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.68 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T13:30:40Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }