{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260918", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1243, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Espanyol", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2739, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1243 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.129 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0921 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0878 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0924, "0-1": 0.0921, "0-2": 0.0475, "0-3": 0.0162, "0-4": 0.0041, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1243, "1-1": 0.129, "1-2": 0.0652, "1-3": 0.0222, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0861, "2-1": 0.0878, "2-2": 0.0448, "2-3": 0.0152, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0394, "3-1": 0.0402, "3-2": 0.0205, "3-3": 0.007, "3-4": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0135, "4-1": 0.0138, "4-2": 0.007, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0037, "5-1": 0.0038, "5-2": 0.0019, "5-3": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0009, "6-1": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4483, "draw": 0.2739, "away_win": 0.2778 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4285, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5715, "btts_yes": 0.4785, "btts_no": 0.5215, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2533 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.84, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.68, "GK": 7.02 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.51, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.58, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.58, "home_lambda": 1.373, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.129, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4483, "draw": 0.2739, "away_win": 0.2778 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4483, "fair_spread": 0.353, "fair_total": 2.393, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.373, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4285, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4785, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2533, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.3859, "probability": 0.3924, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Facundo Buonanotte (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1842, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Quilindschy Hartman (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.2153, "probability": 0.0708, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lucas Cepeda (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1392, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.393, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 595, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4483, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.35 goals and fair total 2.39.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Roberto Fernández against Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Marcos Fernández, Kike García.", "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Grady Diangana, Fernando Niño, Tete Morente.", "Assist usage should flow through Javi Puado; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.20 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Espanyol": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Marko Dmitrović": { "player_id": 94527, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 194, "market_value": 650000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0166, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.3592, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.6667, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 76.5, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.33, "expected_saves": 0.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.38, "shots_faced": 2.1, "opponent_faced": "Facundo Buonanotte, Germán Valera", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416327.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416323.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 18, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0956 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 1.0653 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.0185 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1310, "combined_rank_score": 568.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0166, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Espanyol, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1508, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.5, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.0871, "touches": 37.9582, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.1795, "punches": 0.2267, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8484, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0871 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9339187145233154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1039 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0748, "total": 2.9339 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0414, "total": -0.1629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.150845527648926, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.1014 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0138, "total": 7.1508 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0166, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.3592, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 650000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.0166, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.3592, "duels_lost": 0, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.03, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7917, "xg_scale": 1.2884, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0531, "after": 0.0684 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.1602, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8398, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.8264, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 1, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 75.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.334, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.03, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1359, "fifa_rank": 577.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 347, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 5, "avg_rating": 6.67, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "xg_contribution": 0.2152, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.215 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Urko González", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0418, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Urko González (LWB) is evenly matched against Víctor Chust in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Kevin Lomónaco" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.327, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Lomónaco", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Kevin Lomónaco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Germán Valera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.111, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Germán Valera", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (CM) is evenly matched against Germán Valera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Moscardo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Germán Valera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.0457, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Germán Valera", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Moscardo (CDM) is evenly matched against Germán Valera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Facundo Buonanotte", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.1509, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Buonanotte (LW) is evenly matched against Pol Lozano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Urko González" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.343, "xg_contribution": 0.0807, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Urko González", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.657 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Urko González in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martim Neto", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.512, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.0584, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrhys Dolan", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 }, { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martim Neto (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tyrhys Dolan and Gabriel Moscardo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ezequiel Ponce", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0725, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ezequiel Ponce (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Omar El Hilali and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "xg_contribution": 0.1101, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrhys Dolan", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Tyrhys Dolan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.555, "away_midfield_power": 0.517, "home_creative_power": 0.468, "away_creative_power": 0.452, "home_defensive_power": 0.47, "away_defensive_power": 0.404, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.518, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Urko González", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Javi Puado", "Pol Lozano" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Facundo Buonanotte", "Germán Valera", "Martim Neto", "Marc Aguado", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Urko González vs Facundo Buonanotte", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.009, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.995 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.373, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Urko González": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Lucas Cepeda", "Facundo Buonanotte" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Lomónaco", "Facundo Buonanotte", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Martim Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Martim Neto" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javi Puado": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce", "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Lomónaco", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Lomónaco": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano", "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martim Neto": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ezequiel Ponce": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Javi Puado" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Iturbe": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Zaragoza", "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0193, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.042, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.997, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9839, "home_midfield_factor": 1.009, "away_midfield_factor": 0.995, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5185, "away_avg_quality": 0.464, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0545, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.5543, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5144, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5469, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1221, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0672, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0391, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0807, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0723, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Espanyol", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.373, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.935, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3729, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9346, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.373, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6211, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 2.499, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0253, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Espanyol vs Elche. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.373, Away 0.935). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.373, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Espanyol", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.373, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.373, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.935 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T13:31:05Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }