{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Alavés", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.127, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Athletic Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2823, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.127 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1319 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1007 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1004 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0841 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1007, "0-1": 0.1004, "0-2": 0.0518, "0-3": 0.0176, "0-4": 0.0045, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.127, "1-1": 0.1319, "1-2": 0.0667, "1-3": 0.0227, "1-4": 0.0058, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0825, "2-1": 0.0841, "2-2": 0.0429, "2-3": 0.0146, "2-4": 0.0037, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0354, "3-1": 0.0361, "3-2": 0.0184, "3-3": 0.0063, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0114, "4-1": 0.0116, "4-2": 0.0059, "4-3": 0.002, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0029, "5-1": 0.003, "5-2": 0.0015, "5-3": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4245, "draw": 0.2823, "away_win": 0.2932 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4058, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5942, "btts_yes": 0.464, "btts_no": 0.536, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2761 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 7.23, "ATR": 6.65, "GK": 8.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.56, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Alavés. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Gorka Guruzeta", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Nico Williams vs Antonio Blanco). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.57, "home_lambda": 1.287, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1319, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4245, "draw": 0.2823, "away_win": 0.2932 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4245, "fair_spread": 0.267, "fair_total": 2.307, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.287, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4058, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.464, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2761, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oihan Sancet (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.4147, "probability": 0.1736, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.3401, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Beñat Prados (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.159, "probability": 0.2591, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antonio Blanco (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.0962, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.307, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 604, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 52.7, "possession_away_pct": 47.3, "notes": "Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4245, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.27 goals and fair total 2.31.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Oihan Sancet against Ángel Pérez in Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank; Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Gorka Guruzeta; bench watchlist: Álvaro Djaló, Maroan Sannadi, Adama Boiro.", "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ander Guevara, Aitor Mañas, Mariano Díaz.", "Assist usage should flow through Beñat Prados; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.15 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Unai Simón": { "player_id": 797291, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 189, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6729, "rating": 8.0009, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 59, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.0701, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.67, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.6667, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 70.6, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.39, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416322.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416317.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.2353 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3212 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 8, "goals_prevented": 1.8497 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.3506 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 323, "combined_rank_score": 218.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 158.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.0009, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 }, { "player_name": "Mario Rivas", "ranking": 321 }, { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0422, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Athletic Club, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6457, "rating": 7.6767, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 56, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 13.5, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 4.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 2.4725, "touches": 57.0863, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 27.4155, "punches": 0.3138, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8475, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.892 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.449176788330078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.3878 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0751 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.048 } ], "others": 0.0529, "total": 3.4492 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.6456559896469116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.2118 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.1979 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.1865, "total": 0.6457 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.6767048835754395, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.2479 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0875 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0359 } ], "others": 0.1489, "total": 7.6767 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0422, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6729, "rating": 8.0009, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 59, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.0701, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0422 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6729, "rating": 8.0009, "minutes": 94, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, 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"ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 }, { "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking": 1704 }, { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.456, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.456, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9963, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 163.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.55, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, 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"target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4125621318817139, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0426 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0411 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2421, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0809 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": 0.1396, "total": 1.4126 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783533096313477, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0705 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 192, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0622, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2776, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.2878, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2642, "combined_rank_score": 1225.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 927.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.48, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 1523.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2776, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maroan Sannadi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "William Pizzi", "ranking": 2637 }, { "player_name": "Shohruz Norkhonov", "ranking": 2638 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Akromov", "ranking": 2639 }, { "player_name": "Danilho Doekhi", "ranking": 2640 }, { "player_name": "Randal Kolo Muani", "ranking": 2641 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcelo Suárez", "ranking": 2643 }, { "player_name": "Jhonier Guerrero", "ranking": 2644 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Serna", "ranking": 2645 }, { "player_name": "Abdulazizkhon Abdurashidov", "ranking": 2646 }, { "player_name": "Pau López", "ranking": 2647 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.317, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0717, "total": 0.1962 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4577206075191498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0727, "total": 0.4577 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03542580083012581, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 0.0354 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.40418869256973267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": 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"tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0145)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.2776, "minutes": 31, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.9249, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, 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"shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0103, xG scale 1.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0103, "xg_scale": 1.0096, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3847, "fifa_rank": 2886.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.53, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 223, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.565, "xg_contribution": 0.3058, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Pérez", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.435 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (LW) is slightly favored against Ángel Pérez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.306 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.0655, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Rodríguez", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (RW) is evenly matched against Miguel Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nico Williams", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.452, "xg_contribution": 0.1418, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 }, { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico Williams (CAM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez and Antonio Blanco in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gorka Guruzeta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.1161, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssef Enriquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gorka Guruzeta (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Youssef Enriquez and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Jauregizar", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.515, "xg_contribution": 0.0361, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.485 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Jauregizar (CDM) is slightly favored against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Aitor Paredes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1501, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aymeric Laporte and Aitor Paredes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0626, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Rodríguez (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Dani Vivian" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.613, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "xg_contribution": 0.1269, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Vivian", "role": "LB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dani Vivian in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Ibáñez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.335, "xg_contribution": 0.0924, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.665 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Ibáñez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.0511, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.709, "away_midfield_power": 0.508, "home_creative_power": 0.59, "away_creative_power": 0.377, "home_defensive_power": 0.631, "away_defensive_power": 0.421, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.583, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Nico Williams", "Mikel Jauregizar", "Oihan Sancet", "Beñat Prados", "Peio Canales" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Miguel Rodríguez", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Carles Aleñá", "Ángel Pérez" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Nico Williams vs Antonio Blanco", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.964 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.287, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "CAM vs CM + CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Rodríguez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Williams": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gorka Guruzeta": { "opponents": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aitor Paredes": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Vivian": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Beñat Prados": { "opponents": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet", "Dani Vivian", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales", "Jesús Areso", "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Aitor Paredes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carles Aleñá": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Prados" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta", "Beñat Prados" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Dani Vivian", "Aymeric Laporte" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Nico Williams vs Antonio Blanco). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1141, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.019, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.978, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.964, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5827, "away_avg_quality": 0.4579, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1248, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.144, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.2545, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1022, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2822, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1552, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0903, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0627, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0604, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.287, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.892, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.287, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8917, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.287, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8976, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 2.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3871, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Athletic Club vs Alavés. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.287, Away 0.892). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.287, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.237, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.235, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.287, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.287, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.892 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:31:06Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }