{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Arsenal", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0956, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2086, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0956 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0907 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0737 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0689 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0676 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0333, "0-1": 0.0689, "0-2": 0.0737, "0-3": 0.0522, "0-4": 0.0277, "0-5": 0.0117, "0-6": 0.0042, "0-7": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.0419, "1-1": 0.0907, "1-2": 0.0956, "1-3": 0.0676, "1-4": 0.0359, "1-5": 0.0152, "1-6": 0.0054, "1-7": 0.0016, "2-0": 0.0275, "2-1": 0.0584, "2-2": 0.062, "2-3": 0.0439, "2-4": 0.0233, "2-5": 0.0099, "2-6": 0.0035, "2-7": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0119, "3-1": 0.0253, "3-2": 0.0268, "3-3": 0.019, "3-4": 0.0101, "3-5": 0.0043, "3-6": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0039, "4-1": 0.0082, "4-2": 0.0087, "4-3": 0.0061, "4-4": 0.0033, "4-5": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0023, "5-3": 0.0016, "5-4": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2288, "draw": 0.2086, "away_win": 0.5626 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6639, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3361, "btts_yes": 0.6401, "btts_no": 0.3599, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1198, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2734 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.0, "MCR": 7.3, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 7.3 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.41, "MCR": 7.71, "ATR": 7.62, "GK": 7.85 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jack Hinshelwood, Bukayo Saka (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Yankuba Minteh vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.6, "home_lambda": 1.297, "away_lambda": 2.122, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2288, "draw": 0.2086, "away_win": 0.5626 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5626, "fair_spread": -0.825, "fair_total": 3.419, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.297, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 2.122, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6639, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6401, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1198, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2734, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Diego Gómez (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2234, "probability": 0.089, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.5298, "probability": 0.7415, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yankuba Minteh (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.204, "probability": 0.3004, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.1896, "probability": 0.2581, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.419, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 951, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5626, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.82 goals and fair total 3.42.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brighton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Bukayo Saka against Luka Vušković, Pascal Struijk in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Jack Hinshelwood; bench watchlist: Evan Ferguson, Kaoru Mitoma, Chema Andrés.", "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Bukayo Saka (2); bench watchlist: Noni Madueke, Ethan Nwaneri.", "Assist usage should flow through Yankuba Minteh, Martin Ødegaard; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.71 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brighton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Brighton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.3019, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.5547, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "expected_saves": 1.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.61, "shots_faced": 3.4, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363642.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Brighton", "opponent": "Coventry", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363258.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.3996 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 868, "combined_rank_score": 410.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 300.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0421, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 521.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3019, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jun-seok Son", "ranking": 863 }, { "player_name": "Mukhsinjon Ubaydullaev", "ranking": 864 }, { "player_name": "Nurmukhammad Abduganiev", "ranking": 865 }, { "player_name": "Michail Antonio", "ranking": 866 }, { "player_name": "Guglielmo Vicario", "ranking": 867 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jang Min-Jun", "ranking": 869 }, { "player_name": "Josip Stanišić", "ranking": 870 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Sobirkhuzhaev", "ranking": 871 }, { "player_name": "Sung-joon Kim", "ranking": 872 }, { "player_name": "Derlan", "ranking": 873 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0792, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 46, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6113, "touches": 46.9922, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 33.6997, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.97, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6113 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8362457752227783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1186 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0646 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0369, "total": 2.8362 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.105 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0221, "total": -0.1207 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.765789985656738, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.1312 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0772 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0298 } ], "others": -0.1221, "total": 6.7658 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0792, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.3019, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.5547, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0792 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.3019, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.5547, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.3019, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 7.5547, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "expected_saves": 1.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.61, "shots_faced": 3.4, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"others": -0.0136, "total": 0.0434 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08180516958236694, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.0818 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.038640346378088, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.122, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2268, "xg_scale": 1.7297, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0245, "after": 0.0424 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0272, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5139, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.7567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 12.8, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.256, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1068, "fifa_rank": 691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Ethan Nwaneri": { "player_id": 1401702, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 176, "market_value": 34000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.6285, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.554, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.256, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3444, "combined_rank_score": 1436.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 651.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.74, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 2221.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 3440 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking": 3441 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 }, { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 }, { "player_name": "Iván Romero", "ranking": 3447 }, { "player_name": "Josh Acheampong", "ranking": 3448 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Yates", "ranking": 3449 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.192317550269202, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5541962522849637, "market_value_adjustment": 0.7455, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Arsenal", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€34,000,000) scaled to 23.2 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.75)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.194, "expected_goals": 0.124, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 51, "ball_recovery": 7, "duels_won": 8, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 10.2, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 37, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 9 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.194, "expected_goals": 0.124, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 51, "ball_recovery": 7, "duels_won": 8, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 10.2, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.085, "ball_carries": 37, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 9 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 0, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.6285, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.554, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.19, "appearance_probability": 0.554 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.6285, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.554, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 1.2268, xG scale 1.7297)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.6285, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.554, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.256, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.122, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2268, "xg_scale": 1.7297, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.032, "after": 0.0554 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.6285, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.554, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.256, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3444, "fifa_rank": 2221.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.12, "expected_assists": 0.82, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 458, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 7.62, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yankuba Minteh", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "xg_contribution": 0.1293, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yankuba Minteh (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Eberechi Eze in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €69M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0582, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Hinshelwood", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.888, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0627, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 }, { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Hinshelwood (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martin Ødegaard and Declan Rice in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Jurriën Timber" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.883, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1446, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jurriën Timber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Jurriën Timber in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €84M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Georginio Rutter", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.1127, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georginio Rutter (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Martin Ødegaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Pascal Struijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.76, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.3063, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Pascal Struijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luka Vušković and Pascal Struijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.306 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bruno Guimarães", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Mats Wieffer" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0599, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mats Wieffer", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Guimarães (LWB) is evenly matched against Mats Wieffer in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 69000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.869, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0635, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (RWB) is evenly matched against Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€69M vs €36M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Georginio Rutter" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.503, "xg_contribution": 0.2321, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Georginio Rutter", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (CM) is slightly favored against Georginio Rutter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.232 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Georginio Rutter" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.521, "xg_contribution": 0.0972, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Georginio Rutter", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.479 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (CDM) is slightly favored against Georginio Rutter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.782, "away_midfield_power": 0.93, "home_creative_power": 0.69, "away_creative_power": 0.8, "home_defensive_power": 0.662, "away_defensive_power": 0.748, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.457, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Yankuba Minteh", "Yasin Ayari", "Georginio Rutter", "Jack Hinshelwood", "Diego Gómez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Declan Rice", "Martín Zubimendi", "Martin Ødegaard", "Bruno Guimarães", "Eberechi Eze" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Yankuba Minteh vs Declan Rice", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.297, "away_lambda": 2.122, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yankuba Minteh": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Hinshelwood": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Jurriën Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Georginio Rutter": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pascal Struijk": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mats Wieffer": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Yankuba Minteh", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Mats Wieffer", "Yankuba Minteh" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hinshelwood", "Georginio Rutter" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hinshelwood", "Georginio Rutter" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jurriën Timber": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Pascal Struijk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Martín Zubimendi": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Yankuba Minteh vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1633, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8584, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8962, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7303, "away_avg_quality": 0.8786, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1482, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8745, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7992, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0902, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3584, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1971, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1147, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.154, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0965, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3584, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0946, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9742, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.331, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.939, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.297, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.122, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3305, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.9393, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.297, "final_away_lambda": 2.122 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8552, "attack_index": 3.332, "defense_concede_index": 0.208, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 4.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.25, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.5015, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brighton vs Arsenal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.331, Away 1.939). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.297, Away 2.122 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.297, "away_lambda": 2.122, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.331, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.939 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:30:36Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }