{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1016, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Aston Villa", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.26, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1016 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1236 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0897 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0826 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0752 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0713, "0-1": 0.1016, "0-2": 0.0752, "0-3": 0.0367, "0-4": 0.0134, "0-5": 0.0039, "0-6": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0826, "1-1": 0.1236, "1-2": 0.0897, "1-3": 0.0438, "1-4": 0.016, "1-5": 0.0047, "1-6": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0499, "2-1": 0.0731, "2-2": 0.0535, "2-3": 0.0261, "2-4": 0.0096, "2-5": 0.0028, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0199, "3-1": 0.0291, "3-2": 0.0213, "3-3": 0.0104, "3-4": 0.0038, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0059, "4-1": 0.0087, "4-2": 0.0063, "4-3": 0.0031, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0015, "5-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3073, "draw": 0.26, "away_win": 0.4327 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4958, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5042, "btts_yes": 0.5366, "btts_no": 0.4634, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2313, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3033 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.44, "MCR": 7.53, "ATR": 7.06, "GK": 7.16 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.98, "MCR": 7.4, "ATR": 7.15, "GK": 7.77 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tottenham vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ibrahim Mbaye", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.04. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.56, "home_lambda": 1.193, "away_lambda": 1.464, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1236, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3073, "draw": 0.26, "away_win": 0.4327 }, "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4327, "fair_spread": -0.271, "fair_total": 2.657, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.193, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.464, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4958, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5366, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2313, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3033, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Omar Marmoush (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2575, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ibrahim Mbaye (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.3632, "probability": 0.3057, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Xavi Simons (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.205, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.222, "probability": 0.2978, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.657, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 870, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.9, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Aston Villa", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4327, "script": "Aston Villa is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.27 goals and fair total 2.66.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tottenham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Aston Villa lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Ibrahim Mbaye against Jan Paul van Hecke in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sávio, Lucas Bergvall, Richarlison.", "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Ibrahim Mbaye; bench watchlist: Lamare Bogarde, Tammy Abraham, Brian Madjo.", "Assist usage should flow through Johan Manzambi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Aston Villa tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.33 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tottenham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Aston Villa.", "Tottenham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tottenham": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Antonín Kinský": { "player_id": 1031251, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 190, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0483, "rating": 7.157, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 51, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 12.3123, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "expected_saves": 2.17, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "shots_faced": 4.7, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Mbaye, Nicolas Jackson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363647.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Everton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Tottenham", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363638.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0149 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 6, "goals_prevented": -1.3147 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.1213 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2750, "combined_rank_score": 952.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 502.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8571, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1402.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.157, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 }, { "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking": 2748 }, { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 }, { "player_name": "Ulugbek Abdullaev", "ranking": 2754 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Motpan", "ranking": 2755 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.026, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.047, "rating": 6.9755, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 12.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6696, "touches": 48.8241, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 25.7396, "punches": 0.9504, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9276, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7146048545837402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1359 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0339 } ], "others": 0.0196, "total": 2.7146 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.04704202711582184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0372 } ], "others": 0.1019, "total": 0.047 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.975472450256348, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0805 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0519 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0356 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.9755 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0260, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0483, "rating": 7.157, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 51, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 12.3123, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.026 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0483, "rating": 7.157, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 51, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 12.3123, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0483, "rating": 7.157, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 51, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 12.3123, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "expected_saves": 2.17, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "shots_faced": 4.7, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Mbaye, Nicolas Jackson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, 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"netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.54, "appearance_probability": 0.706 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0082, "rating": 6.8887, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.224, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 9.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1414, xG scale 1.2826)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.8887, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.224, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 9.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.464, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1414, "xg_scale": 1.2826, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0105, "rating": 6.8887, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.224, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 9.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3721, "fifa_rank": 2690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Brian Madjo": { "player_id": 2070311, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 193, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5462, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7348, "combined_rank_score": 5773.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 11414.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Madjo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joel Grodowski", "ranking": 7343 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Faúndez", "ranking": 7344 }, { "player_name": "Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson", "ranking": 7345 }, { "player_name": "Patric Pfeiffer", "ranking": 7346 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Vukotić", "ranking": 7347 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Rossipal", "ranking": 7349 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Olsen", "ranking": 7350 }, { "player_name": "Christoph Kobald", "ranking": 7351 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Nollenberger", "ranking": 7352 }, { "player_name": "Nihad Mujakić", "ranking": 7353 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.747858270283267, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.579448103194694, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5525, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€12,600,000) scaled to 25.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.27, "goal_rate": 0.17, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.206, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12600000, "quality_factor": 0.5525 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5462, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.75, "appearance_probability": 0.579 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5462, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1414, xG scale 1.2826)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5462, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.464, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1414, "xg_scale": 1.2826, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0772, "after": 0.099 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.5462, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.579, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7348, "fifa_rank": 11414.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.46, "expected_assists": 1.05, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 415, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 7.25, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mateus Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.0528, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateus Fernandes (LWB) is evenly matched against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohammed Kudus", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.068, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 71000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammed Kudus (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Johan Manzambi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €71M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.0801, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 71000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Johan Manzambi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0712, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mykhailo Mudryk (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Boubacar Kamara in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.698, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.2474, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 }, { "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ian Maatsen and Matteo Ruggeri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.247 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Solanke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.698, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.226, "xg_contribution": 0.1136, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 }, { "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Solanke (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ian Maatsen and Matteo Ruggeri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Mykhailo Mudryk" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.0595, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (LWB) is evenly matched against Mykhailo Mudryk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Xavi Simons" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.496, "xg_contribution": 0.1576, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Simons", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (CM) is evenly matched against Xavi Simons in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Amadou Onana", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Xavi Simons" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.146, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Simons", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amadou Onana (CM) is slightly favored against Xavi Simons in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "João Gomes", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0438, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Gomes (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Mateus Fernandes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.863, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "xg_contribution": 0.2832, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.675 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Mbaye (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €65M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.283 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alejandro Garnacho", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.863, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.334, "xg_contribution": 0.1413, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.666 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Garnacho (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €65M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2038, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €57M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.874, "away_midfield_power": 0.823, "home_creative_power": 0.748, "away_creative_power": 0.855, "home_defensive_power": 0.706, "away_defensive_power": 0.766, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.515, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Mohammed Kudus", "Mateus Fernandes", "Xavi Simons", "Mykhailo Mudryk" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Amadou Onana", "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Sandro Tonali vs Johan Manzambi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.003 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.193, "away_lambda": 1.464, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohammed Kudus": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mykhailo Mudryk": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominic Solanke": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Xavi Simons": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Mbaye", "Alejandro Garnacho", "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Mbaye", "Alejandro Garnacho" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Pedro Porro": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Mohammed Kudus", "Sandro Tonali", "Xavi Simons", "Mykhailo Mudryk" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Mykhailo Mudryk", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amadou Onana": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Simons", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Mbaye": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alejandro Garnacho": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Taylor Harwood-Bellis": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.04. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9494, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1695, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.139, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9306, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8796, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 1.003, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8159, "away_avg_quality": 0.7409, "avg_quality_gap": 0.075, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3341, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.263, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2072, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1938, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1066, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.062, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1207, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0974, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.193, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.464, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1927, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4644, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.193, "final_away_lambda": 1.464 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0163, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3544, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 0.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.33 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Tottenham vs Aston Villa. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.193, Away 1.464). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.193, Away 1.464 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 7, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.193, "away_lambda": 1.464, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.193, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.464 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T13:31:12Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }