{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Barcelona", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-3", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 3, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0749, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1066, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0749 }, { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.0691 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0609 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0587 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0542 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0072, "0-1": 0.0258, "0-2": 0.0478, "0-3": 0.0587, "0-4": 0.0542, "0-5": 0.04, "0-6": 0.0246, "0-7": 0.0129, "0-8": 0.006, "0-9": 0.0024, "1-0": 0.0088, "1-1": 0.0331, "1-2": 0.0609, "1-3": 0.0749, "1-4": 0.0691, "1-5": 0.0509, "1-6": 0.0313, "1-7": 0.0165, "1-8": 0.0076, "1-9": 0.0031, "2-0": 0.0057, "2-1": 0.021, "2-2": 0.0388, "2-3": 0.0477, "2-4": 0.044, "2-5": 0.0325, "2-6": 0.02, "2-7": 0.0105, "2-8": 0.0049, "2-9": 0.002, "3-0": 0.0024, "3-1": 0.0089, "3-2": 0.0165, "3-3": 0.0203, "3-4": 0.0187, "3-5": 0.0138, "3-6": 0.0085, "3-7": 0.0045, "3-8": 0.0021, "3-9": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0008, "4-1": 0.0029, "4-2": 0.0053, "4-3": 0.0065, "4-4": 0.006, "4-5": 0.0044, "4-6": 0.0027, "4-7": 0.0014, "4-8": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0007, "5-2": 0.0013, "5-3": 0.0016, "5-4": 0.0015, "5-5": 0.0011, "5-6": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0859, "draw": 0.1066, "away_win": 0.8074 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8717, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1283, "btts_yes": 0.7026, "btts_no": 0.2974, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0251, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2794 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.48, "MCR": 7.03, "ATR": 7.3, "GK": 6.77 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.52, "MCR": 7.79, "ATR": 7.49, "GK": 7.75 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-3. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Stassin, Raphinha, Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Youssouf Fofana vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.275, "away_lambda": 3.689, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0859, "draw": 0.1066, "away_win": 0.8074 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8074, "fair_spread": -2.414, "fair_total": 4.964, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.275, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.689, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8717, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7026, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0251, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2794, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Stassin (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.3413, "probability": 0.5642, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Anthony Gordon (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.8172, "probability": 0.5944, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Félix Correia (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.144, "probability": 0.3406, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.1782, "probability": 0.2001, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.964, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 807, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.9, "possession_home_pct": 47.4, "possession_away_pct": 52.6, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8074, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.41 goals and fair total 4.96.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sevilla must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Anthony Gordon against José Ángel Carmona, Arouna Sangante in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Stassin; bench watchlist: Oso, Isaac Romero, Robbie Ure.", "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Raphinha, Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi; bench watchlist: Gabriel Jesus, Roony Bardghji.", "Assist usage should flow through Félix Correia, Lamine Yamal; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 2.48 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sevilla is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Sevilla wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sevilla": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "player_id": 138149, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.7696, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 12.5202, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.67, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.33, "expected_saves": 2.38, "high_pressure_saves": 0.91, "shots_faced": 5.1, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416330.0, "match_date": "2026-09-11 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416323.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3787 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.758 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.2996 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.7724 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1276, "combined_rank_score": 554.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 951.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7696, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Odysseas Vlachodimos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Gavi", "ranking": 1272 }, { "player_name": "Martin Boakye", "ranking": 1273 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Caseres", "ranking": 1274 }, { "player_name": "Henrikh Mkhitaryan", "ranking": 1275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Céspedes", "ranking": 1277 }, { "player_name": "Gi-pyo Kwon", "ranking": 1278 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Hyeon-byung", "ranking": 1279 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Demchenko", "ranking": 1280 }, { "player_name": "Alessio Romagnoli", "ranking": 1281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.982, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Sevilla, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8938, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 12.75, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6993, "touches": 35.3593, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 11.4521, "punches": 0.3138, "distribution_accuracy": 0.861, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6993 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.899885654449463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1276 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.07 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0536 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0327 } ], "others": 0.0853, "total": 2.8999 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": -0.1869 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.893818378448486, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0781 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0272 } ], "others": -0.0624, "total": 6.8938 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": 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0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.0236 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3961634337902069, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1554 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": 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"xg_scale": 2.6471, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0811, "after": 0.2147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2147, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0618, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3803, "fifa_rank": 2907.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.69, "expected_assists": 1.09, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 496, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 5, "avg_rating": 7.66, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lucas Stassin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 15700000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.587, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé", "Alejandro Balde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1425, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 0.8, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 0.8, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Balde", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 0.8, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Stassin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €71M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kike Salas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 15400000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.584, "defenders": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0763, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Olmo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kike Salas (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Dani Olmo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Suazo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Raphinha" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0594, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Raphinha", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Suazo (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Raphinha in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €63M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 25000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.677, "defenders": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "xg_contribution": 0.0506, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lamine Yamal", "role": "CM", "market_value": 237000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lamine Yamal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€25M vs €237M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.582, "xg_contribution": 0.1984, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.418 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (LWB) is slightly favored against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.512, "xg_contribution": 0.2824, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.488 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (CM) is slightly favored against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.282 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.1295, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) is evenly matched against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €25M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.584, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.0731, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (RWB) is slightly favored against Kike Salas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "José Ángel Carmona", "Arouna Sangante" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.3087, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Ángel Carmona", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 }, { "player": "Arouna Sangante", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against José Ángel Carmona and Arouna Sangante in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.309 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "José Ángel Carmona", "Arouna Sangante" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.1398, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Ángel Carmona", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 }, { "player": "Arouna Sangante", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José Ángel Carmona and Arouna Sangante in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.612, "away_midfield_power": 0.93, "home_creative_power": 0.551, "away_creative_power": 0.907, "home_defensive_power": 0.577, "away_defensive_power": 0.747, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.397, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé", "Rubén Vargas", "Félix Correia" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Raphinha", "Dani Olmo" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 3.3, "key_personal_duel": "Youssouf Fofana vs Lamine Yamal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.967, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.038 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.275, "away_lambda": 3.689, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "LWB vs RWB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Lucas Stassin": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé", "Alejandro Balde" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José Ángel Carmona": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arouna Sangante": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Félix Correia": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Balde": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "José Ángel Carmona", "Arouna Sangante" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "José Ángel Carmona", "Arouna Sangante" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Youssouf Fofana vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0611, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8671, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9648, "home_midfield_factor": 0.967, "away_midfield_factor": 1.038, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5511, "away_avg_quality": 0.8662, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3151, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.9576, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.9776, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.1331, "elite_count_gap": -10, "combined_quality_gap": -0.6867, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3777, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2197, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0698, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1061, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.6867, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1767, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9413, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.354, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 3.135, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3537, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 3.1349, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.275, "final_away_lambda": 3.689 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8131, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 0.416, "form_multiplier": 0.949, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6502, "attack_index": 3.54, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.051, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 4.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sevilla vs Barcelona. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-4-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.354, Away 3.135). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.275, Away 3.689 (most likely score 1-3).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.275, "away_lambda": 3.689, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.354, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 3.135 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:31:52Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }